MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0246
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
100 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 270459Z - 270900Z
SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING COMPLEX OF STORMS WITHIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES UP
TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITHIN THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION.
DISCUSSION...A SLOW MOVING COMPLEX WHICH WAS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED VERY
INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH IMPRESSIVE OVERSHOOTING TOPS TO OVER 60,000
FEET WITH TEMPERATURES OF -80C...ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS OF THE MOST
INTENSE UPDRAFTS HAVE SHIFTED WEST OF WHERE THEY WERE LOCATED
EARLIER IN THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHED FROM THE WEST.
00Z SOUNDINGS AND 88D VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWS THAT THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF AT LEAST 35 KTS CONTINUES TO FEED AN AIRMASS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.25 INCHES INTO THE COMPLEX.
CONSEQUENTLY...VERY INTENSE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL WORSEN AREAS ALREADY
DEALING WITH FLASH FLOODING. FFG VALUES ARE LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH PER 3 HOURS IN PARTS OF WASHINGTON/BURLESON/GRIMES AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF CELLS BEING ALIGNED
IN SUCH A WAY AS TO REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...THINK
THAT THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
TX INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
BANN
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...
ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...
