May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

[BlueJay]

Our streets are flooded and at least one car is stalled in another neighbor's driveway. Our next door neighbor has a tree down in the front yard. Still raining like crazy and cannot assess the damage. Our lawn furniture may float away!,

[houstonia]

Patches of blue peeking through the clouds at 6:10 and Beechnut. Hopefully that means that southwest Houston will not feel the effects of this system.

[unome]

clouds above Cypress area moving in three different directions - kinda spooky

[sau27]

What are the chances of it dropping farther south or spitting out an outflow boubdary into the metro area before peetering out?

[Ounce]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC015-473-477-270115-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0091.160527T0009Z-160527T0115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
709 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 709 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BRENHAM...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRENHAM...HEMPSTEAD...SHELBY...INDUSTRY AND BURTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO SHELTER INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING. STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE`S LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3017 9677 3029 9613 3009 9605 2997 9612
2997 9658 3004 9662 3007 9662 3008 9663
3011 9663 3013 9665 3015 9665 3015 9668
3016 9669 3015 9671 3014 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 269DEG 14KT 3010 9650

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

[srainhoutx]

mcd0243.gif

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0243
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
750 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 262349Z - 270449Z

SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING COMPLEX OF STORMS WITHIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF
3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG MCS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH IMPRESSIVE
OVERSHOOTING TOPS TO OVER 60,000 FEET WITH TEMPERATURES OF -80C.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A MARKED V-SHAPED ANVIL WITH
BACKBUILDING TOWARDS THE WEST. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 6
INCHES HAS BEEN INDICATED NORTHWEST OF HOUSTON ON AREA RADARS, AND
A LOCAL REPORT OF AT LEAST 10 INCHES.

THE MCS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
ADVECTING PWS APPROACHING 2.25 INCHES AND MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG.
THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD EASILY EXTEND WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MLCAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND A LOW LEVEL FRONT IN PLACE.

THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH 5Z WITH THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION, AND
THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP ALSO INDICATES 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN. GIVEN THE SUSTAINED NATURE OF THIS MCS AND THE
RAINFALL RATES INVOLVED, FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

[Ounce]

It looks like the storms behind the southern edge is raining itself out. However, it's still backbuilding to Austin.

[Andrew]

Line is starting to move south. Let's see if it can pick up speed.

[unome]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
719 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.AVIATION...
A nearly solid line of thunderstorms extends between Cleveland
and Brenham and is slowly drifting to the south toward the KIAH
airspace. I inserted a TEMPO for 3SM TSRA for th enext two hours with
hopes that the main thunderstorms will remain to the north of the
terminal. However, given the poor performance of our available
model guidance, I would not be surprised to see 1/2SM +TSRA within
the next two hours as the line continues to slowly drift to the
south.

A strong southeast flow continues to pump additional moisture in
to the thunderstorm complex while a train of upper level
disturbances and a split flow in the jetstream contribute to
generate sustained lift. It is likely that this system will
continue for the next few hours. We will likelyu get a break during
the early morning hours, however we expect a similar precipitation
scenario on Friday.

Terminals outside of the thunderstorm complex should remain MVFR
overnight. Those affected by the complex will rapidly experience
IFR/LIFR CIG and VIS conditions. Keehn

&&

[DoctorMu]

clouds above Cypress area moving in three different directions - kinda spooky

Welcome to the shear, my friend.

Yeah, that's the most swirling I've seen IRL for many a year today.

5.75 in of rain IMBY...fortunately no damage, but others in the area were not as lucky.

The MSC is becoming cylindrical and sagging southward into Harris Co. Hope it weakens as the sun goes down. Incredible cloud tops today - 60k ft I believe.

[Ounce]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC199-245-457-270115-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0079.160527T0023Z-160527T0115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
723 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 721 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR SHEPHERD TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF DAYTON LAKES
TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF PLUM GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEAUMONT...LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...WOODVILLE...KOUNTZE...SOUR LAKE...
NOME...FRED...THICKET...SARATOGA...HAMSHIRE...WARREN...WILDWOOD...
BEVIL OAKS...CHINA...VILLAGE MILLS...VOTAW...LA BELLE...
CANEY HEAD AND SPURGER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9473 3049 9454 3074 9459 3078 9417
2986 9416 2986 9436 2989 9436 2989 9444
3011 9445 3011 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 269DEG 20KT 3048 9494 3026 9492 3010 9504

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

K. KUYPER
******************************************************************************************************
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
716 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXC201-291-339-373-407-270030-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-160527T0030Z/
LIBERTY TX-SAN JACINTO TX-MONTGOMERY TX-POLK TX-HARRIS TX-
716 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY...SOUTHERN SAN JACINTO...SOUTHEASTERN
MONTGOMERY...SOUTH CENTRAL POLK AND NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES...

AT 716 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR GOODRICH TO 7 MILES WEST OF VOTAW TO 9 MILES
NORTH OF DAYTON LAKES...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEVELAND...SHEPHERD...SPLENDORA...PATTON VILLAGE...ROMAN FOREST...
WOODBRANCH...PLUM GROVE...GOODRICH...NORTH CLEVELAND...RYE...MOSS HILL...
ROMAYOR...NEW CANEY AND TARKINGTON PRAIRIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE`S LEADING
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

IF ON OR NEAR LAKE LIVINGSTON...GET AWAY FROM THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO
15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER
NOW! DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9466 3049 9473 3038 9469 3018 9476
3013 9527 3047 9527 3067 9494 3051 9465
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 253DEG 27KT 3055 9493 3043 9479 3028 9485

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

[Ounce]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC199-245-457-270115-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0079.160527T0023Z-160527T0115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
723 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 721 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR SHEPHERD TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF DAYTON LAKES
TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF PLUM GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEAUMONT...LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...WOODVILLE...KOUNTZE...SOUR LAKE...
NOME...FRED...THICKET...SARATOGA...HAMSHIRE...WARREN...WILDWOOD...
BEVIL OAKS...CHINA...VILLAGE MILLS...VOTAW...LA BELLE...
CANEY HEAD AND SPURGER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9473 3049 9454 3074 9459 3078 9417
2986 9416 2986 9436 2989 9436 2989 9444
3011 9445 3011 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 269DEG 20KT 3048 9494 3026 9492 3010 9504

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

K. KUYPER

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Line of excessive rainfall moving slowly southward into Harris County while training W to E.

Rainfall totals of 3-5 inches over Spring Creek with hourly rainfall rates of 3-4 inches per hour with this line. Storm totals over 7 inches in Montgomery County and over 13 inches in Washington County.

Appears the line is starting to build southward toward I-10 and looks to shift deeper into the area over the next 1-2 hours. Flash flooding from intense rainfall rates is likely with this line as well as rapid rises on area watersheds.

Flooding is likely along the headwaters of Spring Creek from the rainfall to our north.

West Fork of San Jacinto River:

Widespread 6-7 inches over this basin south of Lake Conroe. Just spoke with the RFC and they are forcing more water into their Humble forecast. Thinking the West fork is going to go above flood stage, but much depends on how much continues to fall on Spring Creek. SJRA is trying to hold back as much water as they can and are hoping the can hold around 3,000cfs. A lot fo water is going to come out of Lake Creek however.

[Ounce]

Looks like part of the southern edge has herniated a line, just north of Brookshire and moving east. FM 529 outside of 99 is getting some rain.

[unome]

yowza... lightning is here !

[Ounce]

Looks like a serious swirl is happening east of 59 between Goodrich and Livingston.

[unome]

http://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDetail/Index/2340

Bear Branch at 2978 - out of banks - 6.56" since 4 PM

[Andrew]

looks like we are starting to see a little bit of some weakening of the line over houston.

[Rip76]

That line does not want to cross I-10 at all.

[Ounce]

That line does not want to cross I-10 at all.

Part of it isn't shy anymore.