May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

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djjordan
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*** New Tornado Warning Take Cover ***

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
147 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 147 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR BEDIAS...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MADISONVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEDIAS AND IOLA.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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Flash Flood Watch issued for our Northern Counties..... Does not include Houston Metro at this time.....

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...HOUSTON...
MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN ...JACINTO...TRINITY...
WALKER...WALLER AND WASHINGTON.

* THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING

* AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SINCE THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...
WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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srainhoutx
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05262016 mcd0743.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261850Z - 262045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR
CLL...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ON ITS WESTERN FLANK. ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE...AND A WATCH ISSUANCE
IS POSSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ATTENDANT TO A SLOWLY EASTWARD-MOVING MCS JUST
EAST OF COLLEGE STATION. CONVECTION WITHIN THIS MCS HAS BECOME MORE
CELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LOCALIZED LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
CONTRIBUTING TO OCCASIONAL MESOCYCLOGENESIS AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY. REDEVELOPMENT OF
MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED IN EARNEST ON THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
UNDERCUT BY A SOUTHWESTWARD-MOVING COLD POOL FROM NEAR CLL TO NEAR
GTU. ANOTHER ISOLATED STORM NEAR HYI HAS INCREASED AND MAY ALSO
POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST.

WITH TIME...HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT
AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. GIVEN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ AND 30-40 KNOTS OF
DEEP SHEAR...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO
REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW VEERING TO
WESTERLY ALOFT...ALONG WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LOW
LCL/S.

..COOK/HART.. 05/26/2016


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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DoctorMu
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djjordan wrote:BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
134 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 134 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF
KURTEN...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF BRYAN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MADISONVILLE...BEDIAS AND IOLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

Hook echo about 6 mi south of Kurten
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
147 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-
SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...
BRYAN...CALDWELL...COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...CONROE...
CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HUNTSVILLE...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...NAVASOTA...
ONALASKA...PRAIRIE VIEW...SEALY...SHEPHERD...THE WOODLANDS...
TRINITY...WILLIS
147 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...HOUSTON...
MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN ...JACINTO...TRINITY...
WALKER...WALLER AND WASHINGTON.

* THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING

* AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SINCE THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...
WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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DoctorMu
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srainhoutx wrote:
05262016 mcd0743.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261850Z - 262045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR
CLL...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ON ITS WESTERN FLANK. ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE...AND A WATCH ISSUANCE
IS POSSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ATTENDANT TO A SLOWLY EASTWARD-MOVING MCS JUST
EAST OF COLLEGE STATION. CONVECTION WITHIN THIS MCS HAS BECOME MORE
CELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LOCALIZED LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
CONTRIBUTING TO OCCASIONAL MESOCYCLOGENESIS AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY.
REDEVELOPMENT OF
MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED IN EARNEST ON THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
UNDERCUT BY A SOUTHWESTWARD-MOVING COLD POOL FROM NEAR CLL TO NEAR
GTU.
ANOTHER ISOLATED STORM NEAR HYI HAS INCREASED AND MAY ALSO
POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST.

WITH TIME...HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT
AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. GIVEN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ AND 30-40 KNOTS OF
DEEP SHEAR...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO
REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW VEERING TO
WESTERLY ALOFT...ALONG WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LOW
LCL/S.

..COOK/HART.. 05/26/2016


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

That SW flank has become tricky - new cells are indeed developing...shear and tornado threat drifting NE

Image
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srainhoutx
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Beginning to get concerned about a fairly long duration Flood potential. Looking well to our SW over Mexico, a vigorous disturbance with gravity waves is headed generally toward S Central, SE and E Texas. Will need to monitor radar carefully later today into the overnight hours.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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EWX issues a Flash Flood Watch. Folks with plans on the Hill Country Lakes and Rivers need to monitor carefully.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
200 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL INTERACT WITH
A MOIST...TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6
INCHES POSSIBLE. DUE TO RECENT RAINS...SOILS HAVE BECOME
SATURATED. RUNOFF WILL BE MORE RAPID INTO AREA RIVERS...CREEKS...
STREAMS...AND LOW LYING AREAS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALONG AND
EAST OF A BURNET TO BOERNE TO SAN ANTONIO TO KARNES CITY LINE.

BURNET-WILLIAMSON-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-BEXAR-
COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-
LAVACA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...BOERNE...BLANCO...
SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...SAN ANTONIO...
NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...FLORESVILLE...
KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...HALLETSVILLE
200 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...
BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...LAVACA...LEE...TRAVIS...
WILLIAMSON AND WILSON.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES

* SOILS ARE SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS AND RUNOFF WILL BE MORE
RAPID INTO AREA RIVERS...CREEKS...STREAMS...AND LOW LYING AREAS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Rotation noted near Bedias. Hope Kludge is paying attention.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
212 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

HOUSTON TX-BURLESON TX-WASHINGTON TX-WALKER TX-GRIMES TX-BRAZOS TX-
MADISON TX-TRINITY TX-
212 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 209 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...CROCKETT...MADISONVILLE...CALDWELL...AUSTONIO...
GRAPELAND...SOMERVILLE...LOVELADY...SNOOK...BEDIAS...KURTEN...KENNARD...
LATEXO...WIXON VALLEY...MILLICAN...KYLE FIELD...LAKE SOMERVILLE DAM...
NORMANGEE AND IOLA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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djjordan
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
222 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 221 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SNOOK...OR 13
MILES EAST OF CALDWELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...SOUTHEASTERN BRYAN...SNOOK...MILLICAN...KYLE FIELD
AND WELLBORN.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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Dangerous flooding situation evolving right now in the Bryan/College Station area .... check out this car on fire stuck in floods. *** Turn around don't drown ***

https://twitter.com/DavidNunoABC13/stat ... 2725615616
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
229 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 229 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR SNOOK...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLLEGE STATION...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN COLLEGE STATION...NAVASOTA...SNOOK AND MILLICAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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Stepping out for a few hours. Thursday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Flash Flood Watch issued N of I-10.

Convective complex has developed over SE TX NW of a line from Columbus to N of Huntsville. Supercell within this complex produce a damaging tornado around 100pm over College Station and Bryan with significant damage reported in the Wheeler Ridge subdivision of Bryan. Since then additional storms have formed to the SW of the initial supercell on likely a 850mb convergent boundary and northern extent of stronger capping over SC TX. Cell are training WSW to ENE over the same areas with rainfall totals now approaching 5-6 inches over Brazos, Madison, and northern Grimes Counties. Additional development on the SW flank of this complex will train over the same areas producing an additional 2-4 inches of rainfall on top of what has fallen. Storm totals by 4-5 pm could near 8-10 inches in isolated areas.

Have little confidence in any model solution and just going off of meso scale trends. Would expect this complex to eventually produce a low level boundary on its southern flank, but strong inflow of 30kts of extremely moist air mass will likely fight the southern progress of any boundary. Additionally capping is holding S of I-10 and hopefully will continue to hold.

This is a favorable flash flood setup over SE TX and for the next 3-6 hours think those counties NW of a line from Columbus to Huntsville will be under the gun for excessive rainfall and flash flooding.

Severe threat remains with leading supercell which has had a history of producing tornadoes and wind damage. College Station tornado looked impressive both on radar and ground truth pictures posted to twitter. Damage was extensive to some homes…but mostly mainly roof and tree damage…at least that has been reported thus far. Will need to watch for additional severe threat along the leading edge of the complex of storms and would not be surprised to see additional small tornadoes with favorable low level shear and instability in place. Think this is mainly an isolated tornado threat or damaging wind threat at this point. Sever threat looks to be transitioning toward a flash flood event.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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From the city of Bryan regarding shelter if needed:

#BryanTornado If anyone is needing shelter, please head to Central Baptist Church - 1991 FM 158 Road, College Station, TX 77845.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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amazing tornado videos coming out college station. Very dangerous situation up there. I would expect up to 10 inches of rain in some areas by the time it is done.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
254 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 254 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF WASHINGTON...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
NAVASOTA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WASHINGTON AND INDEPENDENCE.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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Most likely strong tornado west of Navasota.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
259 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 257 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE WARNING AREA. ROAD CLOSURES HAVE BEEN REPORTED
IN BRAZOS COUNTY AT HIGHWAY 6 AT FM 2818.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...MADISONVILLE...CALDWELL...AUSTONIO...
SOMERVILLE...SNOOK...BEDIAS...KURTEN...WIXON VALLEY...MILLICAN...KYLE
FIELD...LAKE SOMERVILLE DAM...IOLA...WELLBORN...INDEPENDENCE...NORTH
ZULCH...QUARRY AND LYONS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. FIND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
Posts: 929
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 7:19 pm
Location: Montgomery, Texas
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Courtesy of KBTX

CSPD released a list of flooded roads:
All of Southwest Parkway between Wellborn Road and State HWY 6
Holleman Drive at Glade
Krenek Tap at King Cole
Several areas along Harvey Road
Longmire at Deacon
Citizens are asked to avoid the roads until the storm passes
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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