2016 Hurricane Outlook/Preparedness Information

[srainhoutx]

One month until all eyes turn toward the Gulf of Mexico and the Tropics as the 2016 North Atlantic Hurricane Season begins June 1st. The month of May is filled with many activities open to everyone to begin preparing for the upcoming Hurricane Season.

Hurricane Preparedness Week: May 15-21, 2016
#ItOnlyTakesOne
#HurricaneStrong

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherread ... dness.html

05012016 NHC Tour hurricane_%20awareness.jpg

2016 Houston/Galveston Hurricane Workshop May 21, 2016 at the George R. Brown Convention Center. Click on the link to preregister is you plan on attending. We are planning to meet for lunch at the Lake House on Discovery Green on the NW side of the Lake House Area. Come out and meet some of us around 11:00AM that Saturday. Many of us will be walking through the Convention Center in the morning. We hope to see you and your families there!

http://www.hurricaneworkshop.com/

[TexasBreeze]

For whatever forms out there which may be a few more systems than previous seasons, the consistent trough in the west and ridge southeast Conus favors the Carrib and central/west GOM for possible steering...so far....

[srainhoutx]

Sea Surface Temperatures across the Equatorial Pacific continue to cool (down to .8C as of today) suggesting we appear to be heading toward a transitioning ENSO pattern from El Nino to a neutral and very possibly La Nina conditions later this summer. Some may ask why is this important when attempting to speculate what the upcoming North Atlantic Hurricane Season may offer, specifically for the Western Caribbean and the Gulf Of Mexico. The Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly chart below looks across the entire Globe and there are numerous 'hints' that the chart came provide. When we see shades of Blue across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean from South America on West, that typically suggests decreasing wind shear across the Western portion of the North Atlantic Basin that includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Simply put, cooler waters over the Eastern Equatorial Pacific suggests a more stable airmass and less in the way of upper level wind shear that would blow the mid and upper portions of developing tropical cyclones away from the center of a low level surface circulation. Remember the tropical cyclones need to be vertically stacked throughout all levels of the atmosphere to strengthen and survive.

Update from Dr. Phil Klotzbach this morning...
Nino 3 area (5S-5N, 150-90W) averaged +0.4C last week-coldest it has been since week of 3/18/2015. #ElNino weakening

05022016 Phil Klatbach SST ChdSNrMUUAAMcYE.jpg

05022016 Hurricane Cross Section untitled.png

The other 'hints' we are seeing is colder that normal sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic at the higher latitudes as well as down to the Iberian Coast and the East Coast of Africa. Tropical waves move East to West just North of the Equator in the Northern Hemisphere and we track these waves across Africa where convective complexes organize and trek West. If these convective complexes survive, they are tracked off the East Coast of Africa as the move West over Atlantic Ocean from Africa toward the Caribbean Sea. This area is known as the Main Development Region or MDR. You will see many acronyms used in weather forecasting as many have already learned.

One thing that raises an eyebrow is those cooler waters off Africa and to the N around Greenland to Iceland, off the Coast of the Iberian Peninsula. This could allow an upper ridge of High Pressure to be anchored across the Main Development Region which inhibits upward development of thunderstorms need to develop a Tropical Cyclone. The tropical waves will continue march West in the mean East to West low level flow, but may not organize or congeal into a concentrated area of tropical thunderstorms need to develop a tropical system.

As these tropical waves move into the Caribbean Sea, conditions may become more favorable for development allowing thunderstorms to cluster and begin to spin at the lower/mid and upper levels. The lack of mid/upper level wind shear across the Caribbean Sea in La Nina supports the idea that activity may...and I stress may be more conducive for tropical cyclone development.

The Caribbean Sea Surface Temperatures are rather warm (above 80F already) and those warm waters are the fuel that is needed for tropical cyclone development. The Gulf Of Mexico will continue to warm as always and in fact areas in the Bay Of Campeche are already above 80F regarding the sea surface temperatures or SST's...another acronym to remember.

Wrapping my very basic layman description of what we are seeing, the general thinking among the Meteorologists that track Global Patterns, particularly Tropical Cyclones also known as Hurricanes in our part of the World expect a normal season statically speaking. While the MDR may be less conducive to those long track Cape Verde Hurricanes that we watch for days and sometimes up to two weeks as they cross the Atlantic, development closer to our backyard in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico appear more likely due to the conditions stated above. Simply put...Now is the time to plan. What will you and your family do if a Hurricane or Tropical Storm threatens us this year. Do you live in an area susceptible to storm surge? Does your area flood in heavy rainfall? Do YOU have a plan to protect your life and property? We will look a additional information ahead and I encourage those on our KHOU Weather Forum Community to add to these discussions and particularly or Pro Mets who we look to for reliable and accurate guidance when Weather Worries and particularly Tropical Troubles come our way. #OnlyTakeOne #HurricaneStrong

[Stormrider]

Srain, I appreciate your insights about the coming season. I'm curious as to the likelihood of a Pacific system crossing over and rapidly intensifying in the BOC in a La Nina season.

[srainhoutx]

Srain, I appreciate your insights about the coming season. I'm curious as to the likelihood of a Pacific system crossing over and rapidly intensifying in the BOC in a La Nina season.

The Gulf of Tehuantepec along the West Coast of Mexico tends to be an area I monitor for potential tropical cyclone development and particularly this year since the SST's are rather warm in that area, Stormrider. We have seen tropical disturbances cross the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and weaken, but bring their mid/upper level vorticity into the Bay of Campeche and sometimes establish a surface low in time in the right conditions. In fact there is an area of disturbed weather near that area this morning along the Monsoonal trough. It appears to be moving generally West away from the Central America/Mexico West Coast at this time, but it is a sign the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season is just around the corner which starts on May 15th.

[Ptarmigan]

The Gulf of Tehuantepec along the West Coast of Mexico tends to be an area I monitor for potential tropical cyclone development and particularly this year since the SST's are rather warm in that area, Stormrider. We have seen tropical disturbances cross the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and weaken, but bring their mid/upper level vorticity into the Bay of Campeche and sometimes establish a surface low in time in the right conditions. In fact there is an area of disturbed weather near that area this morning along the Monsoonal trough. It appears to be moving generally West away from the Central America/Mexico West Coast at this time, but it is a sign the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season is just around the corner which starts on May 15th.

Tropical Storm Allison in 1989 came from East Pacific Hurricane Cosme.

[sambucol]

City of Baytown sent out emails, phone calls, and texts yesterday telling residents to get a hurricane kit together and have a plan. Basically be ready this season but do it now.

[Katdaddy]

Now that we have some quiet SE TX weather its time to focus on the upcoming 2016 Hurricane Season. Its only 27 days until June 1st which is the first day of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The first day of the EPAC 2016 Hurricane Season begins May 15th. What can we expect one may ask? My answer, it only takes one so always be prepared every hurricane season. With that said it looks to be about an average season but there are some concerns for the GOM and Caribbean this season. A transition from El Nino to neutral ENSO conditions are currently underway with La Nina conditions likely by August. La Nina leads to less wind shear over the Atlantic Basin as the Pacific cools. In addition sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain warm across the GOM and Caribbean. This combination could lead to "close to home" development with short lead times compared to the long tracked Cape Verde tropical cyclones we follow for days and sometimes weeks. More posts to follow this month as we approach the 2016 Hurricane Season but the take away this evening is always be prepared Here is Philip Klotzbach's CSU forecast from the National Tropical Weather Conference last month.

[srainhoutx]

The daily Update of Sea Surface Temperatures suggest some warming waters across the Atlantic while the Pacific continues to cool suggesting El Nino is decaying rapidly.

[srainhoutx]

We are starting to see some changes regarding the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies across the Far North Atlantic and the Tropical Atlantic. SST's have warmed rather rapidly while the Equatorial Pacific continues to cool. The indictors are pointing toward La Nina Conditions possibly as early as August which would be during peak seasonal months of August, September and October for Tropical Development in the Atlantic.

05092016 SST Anomaly anomw_5_9_2016.gif

Also we can see changes brewing across the Western Caribbean Sea where increasing moisture is begin its push North and West after being swept clear with very dry/stable Continental Air with last weeks strong late season cold front. there continues to be growing indications of a monsoonal trough developing in the next week or two and the very long range GFS is 'sniffing' the potential of some tropical mischief developing across the NW Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico.
Will need to monitor developments in the coming week to see if there is some validity to what those longer ranges models are showing. In the early days and weeks of Tropical Season we often see early tropical cyclone development in the Western part of the Atlantic Basin. Roughly 30% of all tropical cyclones that have impacted Texas since about 1878 formed and made landfall along the Texas Coast before August.

[brooksgarner]

Only thing to watch for is upper levels... early GFS outlooks were showing an upper-level kink above that trough, suggesting TUTT potential(?) instead of surface-based low. Either way, if that comes our way it'll spell more rain. Good eye! Let's hope this transition to La Nina doesn't mean a Gulf-targeted tropical wave track ... these transition periods between Nino and Nina can steer 'em right into our basin.

[brooksgarner]

The latest GFS at 384hrs continues to sniff out some sort of trough developing in the Caribbean with ... (drum roll) ... and upper ridge above the system, which could help to aid in development. Earlier runs, as I mentioned in the above post, were showing upper level troughing, which would indicate an tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT), which are not conducive for tropical development.

If this sort of thing developed at the end of May, we could easily see a TD or TS form. Of course, anything out past about hour 96 is generally model fairy-tale land, but GFS has been persistent in spinning something up -- which is climatologically easily possible. Does it drift into Mexico? Based on steering currents, whatever forms down there would most likely Yucatan Peninsula, then SW Gulf... (This is 16 days from now... i.e. highly unlikely to be anywhere near 'accurate', but fun to speculate.)

Also... this model tries to spin-up a TD in the eastern pacific, which if develops, could suck the energy from any organization potential from western Caribbean Sea/SW Gulf low, slowing any development.

gfs_wnatl_384_10m_wnd_precip_s.gif

gfs_wnatl_384_300_wnd_ht_s.gif

gfs_wnatl_384_850_vort_ht_s.gif

[brooksgarner]

NOAA forecasts La Nina to develop over the summer. If consistent with previous La Nina events, this would relax trade winds and shear in the Atlantic, making conditions more favorable for tropical development. Some research has shown that in the transition period between El Nino and La Nina, the Gulf is more likely to receive a tropical wave or system from the Atlantic/Cape Verde track, instead of it just curving up the US East Coast. That could make our region more susceptible to tropical systems. -Brooks

From NOAA:

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 May 2016

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch

Synopsis: La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Nina during the fall and winter 2016-17.

During the past month, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreased across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with near-to-below average SSTs recently emerging in the eastern Pacific (Fig. 1). The latest Niño region indices also reflect this decline, with the steepest decreases occurring in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions (Fig. 2). The surface cooling was largely driven by the expansion of below-average subsurface temperatures, which extended to the surface in the eastern Pacific (Figs. 3 and 4). While oceanic anomalies are clearly trending toward ENSO-neutral, many atmospheric anomalies were still consistent with El Niño, such as the negative equatorial and traditional Southern Oscillation indices. Upper-level easterly winds persisted over the central and eastern Pacific, while low-level winds were near average. Enhanced convection continued over the central tropical Pacific and was suppressed north of Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these anomalies reflect a weakening El Niño and a trend toward ENSO-neutral conditons.

Most models predict the end of El Niño and a brief period of ENSO-neutral by early Northern Hemisphere summer (Fig. 6). The model consensus then calls for increasingly negative SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region as the summer and fall progress. However, there is clear uncertainty over the timing and intensity of a potential La Niña (3-month Niño-3.4 SST less than or equal to -0.5°C). The forecaster consensus favors La Niña onset during the summer, mainly weighting the dynamical models (such as NCEP CFSv2) and observed trends toward cooler-than-average conditions. Overall, La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Nina during the fall and winter 2016-17 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 June 2016.

Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740

[srainhoutx]

Only 17 days to the official start of Hurricane Season 2016.

“It’ll Never Happen to Me”: Getting Past Barriers to Determining Your Hurricane Risk

Dr. Rick Knabb
Director, National Hurricane Center
@NHCDirector

Todays blog post from Dr. Rick Knabb:

https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2016/05/1 ... your-risk/

[srainhoutx]

The updated Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies continue to indicate El Nino is decaying and La Nina conditions are possible by peak Hurricane Season. The latest information from the longer range European Seasonal maps indicate above normal pressures across the Main Development Region with decreasing wind shear across the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

[Katdaddy]

The 2016 Hurricane Awareness Tour was a success in Galveston this afternoon. Its been many years since I toured the Hurricane Hunter at Ellington Field. Its always amazing seeing and touring the massive USAF C130. This year it was the first time to see the NOAA G4. The take away from the 2016 Hurricane Awareness Tour; it only takes one.

[srainhoutx]

That time of year when we start looking for potential tropical development across the Western Atlantic Basin. Today the European model suggests a broad area of lowering pressure developing near Honduras and slowly moving across the NW Caribbean Sea.

[srainhoutx]

El Nino has transitioned to a Neutral Phase in Region 3.4. La Nina appears to be developing.

[unome]

a formerly experimental product from OPC, now operational - very nice for intensification forecasts !

• http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/lightning/index.php

Service Change Notice 15-21
National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
740 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2015

To: Subscribers:
-Family of Services
-NOAA Weather Wire Service
-Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
-NOAAPORT
Other NWS Partners and NWS Employees

From: Richard May
Acting Chief, Marine, Tropical and Tsunami Services Branch

Subject: Experimental Gridded Lightning Strike Density product will transition to operational status effective Thursday, May 21, 2015

Effective Thursday, May 21, 2015 at 1500 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), 1100 AM Eastern Daylight Time, the NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) will transition the experimental gridded lightning strike density product to operational status. The product now will be supported 24 hours per day, 7 days a week.

This product enhances awareness of developing and transitory thunderstorm activity by giving users the ability to determine whether a cloud system is producing lightning, if that activity is increasing or decreasing, and to emulate the future GOES-R Global Lightning mapper (GLM) data.

The Lightning Strike Density product produced by OPC will continue to be available in gridded form (GRIB2) and also have complimentary web images. The base data is the Vaisala GLD360 land based detection system. The gridded product is considered a derived product and is therefore acceptable for distribution to the public. The product contains the number of lightning strikes per square meter, per second. Users should remember that a lightning flash may be comprised of several or many cloud-to-ground strikes.

GRIB2 data will be available on the OPC FTP server, accessible via FTP and HTTP protocols: ftp://ftp.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/grids/opera ... ng_density , http://ftp.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/grids/oper ... ng_density

Graphical images of the gridded product with GOES satellite visible and IR satellite imagery will be available on the Atlantic and Pacific pages on the Ocean Prediction Center web page at: http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/lightning

Please send comments or requests for more information to:

Joseph Sienkiewicz
Joseph.Sienkiewicz@noaa.gov
301-683-1495

National Service Change Notices are available online at: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notif.htm

[srainhoutx]

Latest seasonal ECMWF Outlook suggests 11 named Tropical Storms of which 9,may become Hurricanes. The greatest threat for tropical development July through November appears to be across the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf. Higher pressures across the Main Development Region suggest we will need to monitor our backyard versus those long tracking Cape Verde Hurricanes.