April 2016 Recap: Regional Flood/Severe Weather

[unome]

132
FXUS64 KHGX 181144
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
644 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE IN AND AROUND MOST OF THE SE TX TAF SITES.
HEAVIEST IMPACTED SITES CURRENTLY ARE SGR AND HOU. WITH ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD...LBX AND GLS SHOULD BE IMPACTED SOON.
SHRA/TSRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT UTS AND CXO WITH THE LEAST IMPACTED
LOCATION PROBABLY CLL. NOT REALLY SURE WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SINCE A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY LASTS. GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE
STRONGER STORMS. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE...HISTORIC FLOOD EVENT ONGOING. SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS AND FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES IN EFFECT FROM SLOW MOVING
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS. MULTIPLE HIGH WATER RESCUES REPORTED AND
STRUCTURES BEING FLOODED. UNFORTUNATELY BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT AREAS ALREADY HAVING RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERAL
MORE HOURS.

WORST CASE SCENARIO AS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING IN OFF THE GULF
AND BEING FOCUSED ALONG E TO W BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
LITTLE MOVEMENT. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO CAPTURE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF CONVECTION AND DIFFICULT GOING FORWARD AS WELL. NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. THROUGH TUESDAY
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL ONLY EXACERBATE
FLOODING ALREADY ONGOING. DIFFICULT TO TIME THINGS BUT
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL GENERALLY BE SLOW MOVING. CONCERN IS
THEY WILL OCCUR IN SIMILAR AREAS. HAVE HAD TO RAISE POPS WEDNESDAY
AS WELL AS MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER VORT LOBE PIVOTING AROUND UPPER
LOW LIKELY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REALLY DONT
DRY OUT UNTIL POSSIBLY FRIDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST RIDGING AT SURFACE
AND ALOFT. 46

MARINE...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER COASTAL
AREAS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...CHAMBERS. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS BRAZORIA
AND MATAGORDA WILL HAVE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. WATER LEVELS ARE
PEAKING AROUND 4 FEET AT HIGH TIDES IN THE WARNING AREA AND AROUND
3.5 FEET IN THE ADVISORY AREA. AFTER THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE
PEAKING 2-3 PM WE WILL LIKELY SEE WATER LEVELS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
SOME...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WELL. SHOULD SEE
WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE SOME DURING THE DAY TODAY. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 67 78 67 81 / 100 90 70 50 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 77 68 77 67 82 / 90 90 80 40 70
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 70 75 70 77 / 90 90 80 50 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...42

[srainhoutx]

Keegans Bayou Flood Warning coming. Jeff states White Oak Bayou is second highest recorded behind TS Allison @ Jersey Village. S Madye Creek nearing record flood event.

[srainhoutx]

Now 70 subdivision around Houston Area reporting flooding.

[srainhoutx]

Flood waters from White Oak entering main lanes of I-10. Flood Emergency may be expanded shortly to include DT Houston due to possible flooding of I-45 and I-10. Stay Home Folks!

[srainhoutx]

Jeff reports house flooding along Brays Bayou @ US 59

[wxman57]

Mark Sudduth put out some cameras yesterday. The one over Brays Bayou at rice is near my house. It's the area that flooded badly last year. Brays Bayou is nearing the top of its banks now, and more rain is coming.

http://hurricanetrack.com/flood/

[unome]

really ???

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

vs

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/

[wxman57]

Yeah, a 40% chance of thunderstorms seems about right today...

[Andrew]

update at I-10 and Houston Ave

[ticka1]

will this last until tomorrow -the rain and flooding? hearing parking garages in medical center taking on water. anyone have confirmation of this?

[bikerack]

UT Police Houston ‏@UTPoliceHouston 14m14 minutes ago
Several Texas Medical Center garages have been effected by the rain event. Garages 3 & 7 closed. Garage 1 &15 basements closed.

[BlueJay]

Our and our neighbors 96 gallon size trash cans were toppled, spilled over and floated down the street this morning. I got it all cleaned up for now.
Feast or famine in the rain department for us! Everybody be safe!

[Andrew]

Models are pretty aggressive with backing things up later today and with the additional shortwave out west, I suspect we will see another wave later tonight.

[unome]

looks like hurricane season

[ticka1]

i know this is khou but channel 2 is off the air.

[Andrew]

i know this is khou but channel 2 is off the air.

Yea, I think their generators got flooded, or that is how it looks on their facebook page.

[jabcwb2]

Does anyone know if we can get into downtown? ? I need to get to Louisiana street. From 1-10 to Smith street. Thanks!

[Ounce]

i know this is khou but channel 2 is off the air.

Yea, I think their generators got flooded, or that is how it looks on their facebook page.

That explains why I can't pick them up. They are in the middle of renovation construction at the station.

[Ounce]

Jeff Linder is presently on 11 on a live shot, for those that want to put a face with the knowledge.

[srainhoutx]

No worries when we have a weather emergency, we are all partners when lives and property are in jeopardy. This partnership includes the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, NOAA and our State/Local Emergency Management as well as all the Media Partners. We are a Team providing the best reliable and accurate information possible for our neighbors.