June Weather Discussion

[sleetstorm]

I am also receing some rather intense thunder and lightning here in Baytown too.

[wxdata]

Multiple boundaries laying across the area. Interesting to see how things line up in a few hours.

[srainhoutx]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

TXC039-167-201-072200-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0029.100607T2000Z-100607T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-BRAZORIA TX-GALVESTON TX-
300 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 258 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING NEAR FRIENDSWOOD AND LEAGUE CITY.

THESE STORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING NORTH WITH OTHER STORMS FORMING OVER
THE SAME AREA. THESE NEW STORMS MAY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA THAT
HAS ALREADY HAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN AN HOUR.

[wxdata]

Report- Parts of Webster have lost power due to lightning...

[wxdata]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
348 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

TXZ200-072130-
LIBERTY-
348 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 342 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LIBERTY...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...LIBERTY AND DEVERS.

[Ptarmigan]

I notice quite a bit of storms in Mexico based on satellite image.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html

[srainhoutx]

Looks like a day of radar watching ahead. I found it interesting that HGX mentioned that the Upper Low may stall somewhere between San Antonio and College Station over night tonight. I also noticed that HGX has updated the aviation forecast to include heavy rainfall for today and tomorrow. Could make for a tricky afternoon commute if the rains move in as expected.

[srainhoutx]

HPC QPF discussion...

...SRN TX...

THE MDLS ARE WELL-CLUSTERED WITH THE IDEA OF TAKING A WELL-DEFINED
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTH TX AND LIFTING THIS FEATURE NEWRD
INTO SOUTHEAST TX BY WED MORNING. THE UPPER DYNAMICS WITH THIS
FEATURE AND BROAD UPPER LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH A VRY MOIST
AMS...PWS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES... AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST A BKN AXIS OF CNVCTN FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TX.
ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING A SOLID CLUSTER OF CONVECTION/HEAVY
RAIN IS SLIDING NORTH ACROSS EXTREME SRN TX AND THE ECMWF/GFS HAD
THE BEST HANDLING OF THIS ACTIVITY... WITH THE GFS ACTUALLY
DEPICTING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK QPF AMOUNTS. HPC QPF GENERALLY
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ECMWF/SREF MEAN/ENSBC QPF SOLNS HERE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CNVCTN AND HI MSTR IN PLACE.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff...worrisome...

Excessive rainfall and flash flood threat increasing across Texas.

Upper level low over S TX will move slowly NNE today with copious moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico streaming northward into the region. Already very active this morning around Matagorda Bay where overnight MVC spread a band of heavy rainfall northward across Victoria and Calhoun counties…now into Matagorda and Jackson Counties arcing WNW toward San Antonio. Radar out of CRP shows another strong line of thunderstorms over the western Gulf racing NNE toward Matagorda Bay at 40mph with strong winds, while BRO radar shows additional thunderstorms developing in lines from King Ranch to South Padre Island. Position of the upper low favors the lower to mid coast for excessive rainfall today in training bands. GOES sounder shows incredible PW advection of near 2.4 inches over the western Gulf toward the region from Palacios to Rockport today. Threat for cell training, saturated air mass, and upper air divergence on the east side of the low support good rain chances over the entire region today with the most favored area from Rockport to Wharton. Widespread 2-3 inches of rain in quick fashion with isolated amounts of 6 inches will be possible especially where cell training occurs.

Upper feature will be positioned between San Antonio and College Station overnight tonight and slow toward a stall under very weak steering aloft. Very tropical air mass transitions the system into “warm core” or nearly “tropical” suggestive of pure warm rainfall processes and nighttime core rain events. Light winds aloft combined with 30-40kts of 850mb SE flow will transport good low level convergence toward the low center after dark. Suspect tonight will be the first core rain event somewhere over the coastal bend, central TX, or the western sections of SE TX. Moisture transport and coastal speed convergence ping the region around Matagorda Bay stretching NNW toward Austin as the most likely location for a big event tonight. Will broad brush 2-4” across the entire region tonight into Wednesday, but where any core rains set up 6-12” will be possible in 4-6 hours leading to rapid flash flooding and possible river flooding.

Low feature will move slowly NNE on Wednesday and be located over NE TX by Thursday afternoon. Wednesday night will favor another potential core rain event somewhere over the eastern part of TX bounded by Dallas to the north, Austin to the west, and Houston to the south. The most favored location appears to be in the region from Waco toward Huntsville. Elsewhere moist air mass will continue to surge out of the western Gulf of Mexico with widespread rains again at nearly anytime through Thursday.

Low shears out to the NE on Friday as trough digs into the western US and sub-tropical high builds westward across the Gulf toward coastal TX. Feel moisture levels will be slow to come down, but will lower enough to reduce rain chances by Friday to along the afternoon seabreeze. Daily afternoon thunderstorms will be common through the weekend…with some days favoring others as the sub-tropical high lingers near the region.

A tropical wave will move across the Gulf of Mexico early next week with potential impacts on the TX coast by Monday or Tuesday.

QPF:

Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4” will be common over the next 48-72 hours with isolated amounts up to 12-15 inches where cell training or core rainfall events develop. Most favored area for significant rains and flash flooding should be along and west of I-45 and east of I-35 or in the region from Matagorda Bay to Waco. Such systems in the past have acted very much like decaying tropical cyclones and have produced incredible amounts of rainfall.

Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of CRP’s area including Victoria and Calhoun counties westward. Suspect additional watched will be needed for portions of SC, C, and SE TX later today or Wednesday.

[srainhoutx]

A bit rough just S of Freeport...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
919 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
GALVESTON BAY...
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 919 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR
GREATER FROM 7 NM NORTHEAST OF MATAGORDA BAY TO 58 NM SOUTH
OF FREEPORT... MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. AT 900 AM
CDT...A BUOY 60 MILES SOUTH OF FREEPORT RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 35
KNOTS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
914 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

TXZ226-235>237-081515-
BRAZORIA-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
914 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 910 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR VANDERBILT TO THE SOUTH
NUCLEAR PLANT TO NEAR MATAGORDA MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SOUTH TEXAS NUCLEAR
PLANT...MORALES...MIDFIELD...LOUISE...LAKE TEXANA DAM...DANEVANG...
CORDELE...BLESSING...WEST COLUMBIA...SWEENY...RICHWOOD...QUINTANA...
LAKE JACKSON...LA WARD...FREEPORT...EL CAMPO...EDNA...CLUTE AND BAY
CITY.

[wxdata]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1004 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

TXZ213-227-237-238-081600-
BRAZORIA-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-
1004 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 1000 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR NEEDVILLE
TO NEAR ROSHARON TO DANBURY TO SAN LUIS PASS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 TO 30 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SCHLITTERBAHN...
ROSHARON...PELICAN ISLAND...JULIFF...GALVESTON STATE PARK...CHOCOLATE
BAYOU...GALVESTON...WEBSTER...TOWN WEST...THOMPSONS...TEXAS CITY...
SUGAR LAND...STAFFORD...SANTA FE...ROSENBERG...RICHMOND...PECAN
GROVE...PEARLAND...NASSAU BAY...MISSOURI CITY...MISSION BEND...
MEADOWS...MANVEL...LIVERPOOL...LEAGUE CITY...LA MARQUE...JAMAICA
BEACH...IOWA COLONY...HITCHCOCK...HILLCREST...FRIENDSWOOD...FRESNO...
FIRST COLONY...DICKINSON...BONNEY...ARCOLA AND ALVIN.

[wxdata]

Base velocity showing possible winds 50+ mph just off the surface south of Sandy Point.

[wxdata]

Possible meso north of Angleton.

edit: not gate to gate.

[wxdata]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1013 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 1009 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF BRAZOS
BEND STATE PARK...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANVEL...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO THE MEDICAL CENTER...RELIANT PARK...MINUTE MAID PARK...
JOHNSON SPACE CENTER...HOBBY AIRPORT...HERMAN PARK...THE
GALLERIA...ELLINGTON FIELD...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...WEBSTER...
TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE...STAFFORD...SPRING VALLEY...SOUTHSIDE PLACE...
SOUTH HOUSTON...SHOREACRES...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...PEARLAND...
PASADENA...NASSAU BAY...MISSOURI CITY...LEAGUE CITY...HUNTERS CREEK
VILLAGE...HOUSTON...HEDWIG VILLAGE...FRIENDSWOOD...FRESNO...EL
LAGO...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...BROOKSIDE VILLAGE...BELLAIRE AND
ALVIN.

[wxdata]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1024 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

TXC039-157-167-201-081545-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-100608T1545Z/
HARRIS TX-FORT BEND TX-BRAZORIA TX-GALVESTON TX-
1024 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM CDT
FOR GALVESTON...BRAZORIA...FORT BEND AND HARRIS COUNTIES...

AT 1021 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 60 MPH WINDS. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR MANVEL...AND MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

[wxdata]

Maybe some pea sized hail east of Missouri City

[srainhoutx]

Very heavy 'tropical like' rains in NW Harris County at this time.

[djjordan]

The Tropical Machine has turned on here in Sugar Land .... Torrential Rainfall, lightning and Thunder .... little to no wind at time.

[wxdata]

Radar indicate possible pea sized hail over/near Meyerland.