June Weather Discussion

[srainhoutx]

Going to be a close call up here in NW Harris County. Appears to be even a better chance for showers/storms tomorrow.

[djjordan]

Looks like the bulk is gonna miss me .... Katy looks in line for a decent storm

[wxdata]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
546 PM CDT SUN JUN 6 2010

TXZ212-213-062345-
HARRIS-WALLER-
546 PM CDT SUN JUN 6 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 536 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF KATY...MOVING WEST AT 15
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WADSWORTH...
MONAVILLE...PRAIRIE VIEW...PINE ISLAND...PATTISON...KATY AND
BROOKSHIRE.

[wxdata]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
722 PM CDT SUN JUN 6 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 717 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CLEVELAND...AND MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO CLEVELAND...TARKINGTON PRARIE...WOODBRANCH...SPLENDORA...
SHEPHERD...ROMAN FOREST AND PATTON VILLAGE.

[wxdata]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
739 PM CDT SUN JUN 6 2010

TXZ164-178-179-070145-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-
739 PM CDT SUN JUN 6 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 730 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRAL POLK COUNTY NEAR LEGGETT...MOVING
WEST AT 15 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MOSCOW...LEGGETT...
SEVEN OAKS AND POINT BLANK.

[wxdata]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
807 PM CDT SUN JUN 6 2010

TXZ163-164-176>179-199-200-213-070200-
HARRIS-HOUSTON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN
JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-
807 PM CDT SUN JUN 6 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 801 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...TARKINGTON PRAIRIE...
SEGNO...ROMAYOR...PORTER...NEW CANEY...MOSS HILL...MOSCOW...
LEGGETT...LAKE CONROE DAM...DOBBIN...CRABBS PRAIRIE...WOODLOCH...
WILLIS...TOMBALL...THE WOODLANDS...STAGECOACH...SPRING...SEVEN
OAKS...RIVERSIDE...POINT BLANK...PLUM GROVE...PINEHURST...OAKHURST...
NORTH CLEVELAND...MONTGOMERY...LIVINGSTON...LIBERTY...KINGWOOD...
KENEFICK...HUNTSVILLE...HUMBLE...HARDIN...GOODRICH...DEVERS...DAYTON
LAKES...DAYTON...CONROE...COLDSPRING...CLEVELAND AND CHATEAU WOODS.

[wxdata]

It appears the storm over Montgomery County is moving northwestward, while the cell over Liberty County is now dropping to the southwest..

[wxdata]

VIL down in storms; evening cooling seems to be taking its toll..

[wxman57]

Only 0.11" from the "storm" in Westbury.

[srainhoutx]

Rain chances for today look to be a bit more wide spread than what we have seen the past several days. The Upper Low appears to be located just to the SW of Galveston this morning. The 6Z WRF suggests that showers/storms will fire off around mid day and continue through the evening and perhaps into the overnight hours as well...we shall see...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFRAD_6z/jloop.html

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff...

Potential increasing for heavy rains through Thursday.

Well defined upper low over S TX is moving slowly westward this morning with copious moisture streaming northward into TX on the east side of this feature. GOES sounder shows 2.0-2.25” PWS over the western Gulf of Mexico surging toward the TX coast. Most coastal stations already have upper 70 to low 80 degree dewpoints in place making it about as sticky as it gets in these parts. Favorable position of the upper low over S TX will bring good onshore moisture advection today coupled with strong morning heating and upper air divergence on the east side of the low all point to an active seabreeze event. Ongoing offshore activity 80-100 miles SSE of Galveston indicate the surge of tropical moisture while showers have already developed in Jefferson County suggesting some of this moisture is already making landfall.

Expect numerous showers/thunderstorms to develop by late morning/early afternoon as the seabreeze begins to move inland and trigger temperatures are exceeded. Best coverage will be from Palacios to Huntsville where deepest tropical moisture will surge inland. Should see things calm down toward sunset, but not for long as incredibly moist air mass (PWS 2.2-2.3 inches) arrives tonight. Upper low over S TX will stop its westward movement and begin to track NNE Tuesday. Feel the moist air mass in place along with the typical nocturnal coastal speed convergence will get things going along the coast late tonight/early Tuesday morning. At the same time, deep tropical moisture begins to transform the current S TX low into a more “tropical” type feature with warm rain production…and the potential for the infamous nocturnal core rains near the center. Feel tonight the state should escape such a feature as the ingredients continue to come together, but by Tuesday night everything will be in place.

Weak low will be situated in the region bounded by Del Rio, Austin, and Victoria by late Tuesday afternoon. Models show very light upper levels winds (<20kts) over the top of this low with 20-30kts of southerly low level flow feeding moisture into the eastern side of the low Tuesday evening. Saturated soundings, high PWS air mass, and good upper level divergence all point to a good potential for nocturnal core rains Tuesday night near the center of the low and again Wednesday night. Way too hard to pinpoint the location this far out, but it appears such activity will remain west of our region…although not by far. Models have been showing hints at a few significant QPF bombs along the track of the low and I suspect a couple of locations from S TX to along and E of I-35 are going to get hit hard in the next 3-4 days. Such core rainfalls are notorious for producing incredible amounts of rainfall and have resulted in devastating flash flooding and river flooding. Would not be surprised to see a 6-12 inch event a couple of times along the track of this feature.

Across most of SE TX, feel the best course of action is to go with 40% at all times day and night through Friday with a very moist air mass in place, it is not going to take much to get things going. Best coverage will be along the seabreeze during the afternoon hours, but would not rule out things getting going along the coast in the early morning hours along the coastal speed convergence axis. Or course any wobbling of the low to our west closer into our region would bring the threat of much more significant nighttime rainfall and much higher QPF values and potential for flooding.

Extended:

Upper feature will gradually shear out over C TX by the end of the week, with moisture levels gradually lowering as sub-tropical ridging attempts to build in from the SE US. Models are likely drying the area a bit too fast, so it seems best to carry 30/40% each day into next weekend. Some hints at a fairly decent tropical wave arriving into the western Gulf of Mexico early next week…if this feature pans out, subsidence ahead of the wave could reduce rain chances over the weekend and back winds into the E and NE along the coast…a small reminder that hurricane season is here.

[srainhoutx]

Folks near Lake Houston have been getting some heavy rainfall for about the past hour. Would not be surprised to see a Flood Advisory issued for that area.

[weatherguy425]

Yep, just started raining here. Storms appear to be training/ back- building to the Southeast.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1006 AM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

TXC201-071600-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0028.100607T1506Z-100607T1600Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-
1006 AM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 1004 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING NEAR CROSBY.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CROSBY AREA HAVE PRODUCED RAINFALL TOTALS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE LAST HOUR. WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM...MINOR FLOODING MAY DEVELOP OVER THE ADVISORY
AREA.

[djjordan]

Looks to be a wet day ..... I can hear the thunder already from my house in Sugar Land .... will be interesting how these storms evolve over the week.

[Mr. T]

Finally getting some rain after hearing frequent thunder since about 9:30 am...

[djjordan]

Got some training setting up in my area .... already had one heavy downpour .... very loud thunder as well.

[wxdata]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1231 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

TXZ213-227-071815-
FORT BEND-HARRIS-
1231 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1224 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SUGARLAND...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...TOWN WEST...SUGAR
LAND...STAFFORD...PECAN GROVE...MISSION BEND...MEADOWS AND FIRST
COLONY.

[djjordan]

Looks like some pea sized hail could be falling directly over Sugarland airport at this time

[wxdata]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
117 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

TXZ179-071900-
POLK-
117 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 112 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRAL POLK COUNTY...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...ALABAMA-COUSHATTA
RESERVATION.