February 2016: Quiet Warm Weather To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z ECMWF Ensembles are suggesting a lot of spread among the various 50+ ensemble members regarding a deep Western trough versus the operational guidance which is less amplified. It will be interesting to see if this indicator persists for an early February Winter Storm somewhat similar to the post Christmas episode that brought all sort of weather worries, both in the warm and cold sectors.

[Ptarmigan]

Like to see some snow.

[srainhoutx]

The updated Teleconnection Indices, MJO, Ensembles and other Hemispheric indictors are suggesting a somewhat volatile period may develop as February begins. The ECMWF EPS ( 50+ individual ensemble members) are suggesting a very impressive wave break from the North Pacific into the Polar Region which tends to lead to a lot of volatility and uncertainty regarding our sensible weather down stream where we live. The Arctic Oscillation is in a positive regime and that coincides with the zonal split flow and warmer temperatures we will experience the rest of January. The ensembles are indicating the AO may begin to crash, but there is uncertainty that it will return to a negative regime. The Pacific North American (PNA) is relaxing some, but is indicated to resume a rather strongly positive regime as February begins. That represents the building heights across Alaska and the Polar Regions we are seeing in the hour 174 and beyond via the ensembles. It is also noteworthy that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is not expected to swing into negative territory and the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) only flirts with a negative reading versus the strongly negative phase we witnessed prior to the big East Coast Winter Storm last weekend. All the indicators suggest some of the coldest air of the season develops across Western and Central Canada and spills South into the Plains following a fairly significant Winter Storm mid next week. It will be interesting to watch the day to day changes via the various computer schemes as they attempt to grasp the Hemispheric changes that appear to be developing. Also, it is noteworthy to mention that the NOAA G-IV High Altitude Aircraft is in Honolulu/Pearl Harbor for a 2 month mission in support of the El Nino and Winter Storm potential and its impact on the Western United States. That valuable data will assist the model guidance as they fly around the Pacific Ocean sampling the upper air and dropping numerous dropsondes over the Pacific.

01262016 AO ao_sprd2.gif

01262016 Tele Indices 4panel.png

01262016 MJO EMON_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

01262016 CPC Day 8+ Super Ensemble Analogs 500hgt_comp_sup610.gif

01262016 00Z Euro EPS 192 ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_9.png

01262016 00Z Euro EPS 192 ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_9.png

[wxman57]

12Z Euro does indicate a bit of cooling for the Southern Plains early in February, but it doesn't last long. Above-normal temps take over by the second week of February, all the way north into western Canada. Nothing to indicate any snow potential here through then. And if it doesn't happen by mid February, the chances go way down.

[srainhoutx]

The updated Climate Prediction Center Day 8+ Analogs have been issued.

01262016 CPC Day 8+ Analogs 610analog_off.gif

01262016 CPC Day 8+ 610analog_temp.gif

01262016 CPC Day 8+ 610analog_prcp.gif

[DoctorMu]

It would be nice for one of these far off scenarios to finally break our way.

I feel like Charlie Brown with Lucy (Bastardi) pulling away the football again...

[BigThicket]

10-15 day GFS Is interesting!

[srainhoutx]

Be careful trusting any of the computer guidance beyond 3 to 5 days out with the Hemispheric Pattern in flux. Case in point, the 12 ECMWF is suggesting the next weather maker out West may dig into Northern Mexico versus over the 4 Corners as the models had been suggesting. Cyclogenesis near the Permian Basin rather than Amarillo or Canadian, TX can make a bit of a difference. It appears a legitimate Stratospheric Warming event is unfolding so expect a lot of volatility via the various computer guidance schemes. Regardless of the eventual storm track, it appears a lot of snow will fall across the Southern and Central Plains in the cold sector. The warm sector may see the severe weather potential increase if enough Gulf moisture and instability can move inland and the Storm Prediction Center is already hinting of that possibility.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center Day 8+ Analogs:

[srainhoutx]

Looking ahead to the first days of February, there continue to be some timing and track differences via the ensembles regarding the 4 Corners/Southern Rockies Storm System and where as well as how deep the Western trough will dig into the Desert SW. The Euro is the deeper and fast of the solutions and the DGEX is also in agreement with the ECMWF. The GFS is not as deep with the Western trough and slightly slower ejecting the upper trough/low out into the Plains. All of the guidance is indicating cyclogenesis near the Panhandle with a trowel developing N and W of the surface low bringing heavy snow in the cold sector. The warm sector ahead of the strong cold front is expected to be supportive of severe weather mainly N and E of Houston and particularly across the Dixie Alley where the Storm Prediction Center is outlining at least a 15% chance of severe thunderstorms. There is some potential for severe storms further West mainly along the dryline ahead of the cold front around the I-35 Corridor, but that potential is uncertain due to lack of instability and just how quickly Gulf moisture can surge inland as well as capping issues with the cooler NW Gulf of Mexico shelf waters. The strong Canadian front should generate showers beginning Monday afternoon and possibly continue into early Tuesday along the cold front. We will need to monitor over the next few days for any severe weather potential for our local Region.

01282016 00Z Euor EPS 120 ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_6.png

01282016 06Z GEFS 120 gfs-ens_z500a_namer_21.png

01282016 SPC Day 5 day5prob.gif

01282016 Day 6 day6prob.gif

Cold air with at least light freeze chances appear likely next Wednesday and possibly next Thursday morning in the wake of the big storm that is expect to move NW into the Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valley Regions. Regarding the Teleconnection Indices and the Stratospheric Warming that the models have been showing, things still appear on track of some Hemispheric Changes. The Arctic Oscillation is expected to begin to crash around February 1st toward negative territory after peaking around +3.5 over the weekend. The Stratospheric Warming is showing up via the 10 hPa level rather nicely spreading from Eurasia across the North Pole. We will have to monitor other trends as some of the longer range ensemble guidance indicates cold air building across the Central Canadian Prairies into the Plains, East of the Continental Divide as we approach the 10th of February.

01282016 AO ao_sprd2.gif

01282016 Tele Indices 4panel.png

01282016 CPC Day 8+ Super Ensemble Analogs 500hgt_comp_sup610.gif

01282016 00Z Euro 168 500hcfsranomna.png

[wxman57]

Possibly a couple of light freezes across Houston next week, according to this morning's GFS run. Not much precip, though. Nice weekend ahead, particularly Saturday. Clouds return Sunday.

[srainhoutx]

A lot of day to day volatility even with the ECMWF-EPS. Mike Ventrice sent out this tweet early this afternoon.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice
ECMWF EPS really struggling with the 11-15 day pattern. Yesterday's 12Z temperature changes compared to today's run.

Yesterday:

01282016 M Ventrice untitled.png

Today:

01282016 M Ventrice 12Z Euro EPS untitled.png

[harpman]

Can you let us know what this means? Thanks!

[srainhoutx]

Can you let us know what this means? Thanks!

Basically we are seeing a lot of run to run volatility in the longer range guidance. Some of that volatility may be related to the various Hemispheric phenomena developing such as Polar Stratospheric Warming as well as other indices related to what actually occurs in the days ahead with the AO, placement of the Western Ridge (PNA) as well as many other indicators that appear to be happening. Do I think we are going to see a major Arctic outbreak? Probably not. Do I believe that winter is done for our Region? It's way too soon to cancel winter on January 28th, in my humble opinion. We've seen time and time again that nature will do what it wants to do. Part of the challenge is to recognize various indications and explain them in a fashion that folks can understand. We live on a complex planet where 70% of the surface is water. From my standpoint, the fluid motion of the atmosphere is fascinating and keeps this crazy passion alive for this pushing 60 year old mind.

[harpman]

Can you let us know what this means? Thanks!

Basically we are seeing a lot of run to run volatility in the longer range guidance. Some of that volatility may be related to the various Hemispheric phenomena developing such as Polar Stratospheric Warming as well as other indices related to what actually occurs in the days ahead with the AO, placement of the Western Ridge (PNA) as well as many other indicators that appear to be happening. Do I think we are going to see a major Arctic outbreak? Probably not. Do I believe that winter is done for our Region? It's way too soon to cancel winter on January 28th, in my humble opinion. We've seen time and time again that nature will do what it wants to do. Part of the challenge is to recognize various indications and explain them in a fashion that folks can understand. We live on a complex planet where 70% of the surface is water. From my standpoint, the fluid motion of the atmosphere is fascinating and keeps this crazy passion alive for this pushing 60 year old mind.

Thank you very much.

[Katdaddy]

Beautiful mostly sunny and warm weather to end the last weekend of Jan 2016 across SE TX. Lots of sun and highs in the low to mid 70s through the weekend. The big weather story early next week with be a significant severe weather event across the Deep South. W TN, N MS, and N AL are in a 30% risk area for next Tuesday.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z guidance continues to advertise a powerful Southern Rockies/Plains storm system early to mid next week. It's looking like a good possibility of much colder air filtering down from Canada arriving Tuesday with temperatures for morning lows in the upper 20's/low 30's likely Thursday and Friday mornings next week. The extended range ensembles are advertising some mighty chilly air settling across North America, East of the Continental Divide around the 9th/11th of February timeframe. There are increasing chances of a Polar Vortex split during that time period suggesting the ' coldest air' across the Northern Hemisphere may be on our side of the World. We will see.

gfs-ens_z500a_sd_nhem_48.png

gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_48.png

[srainhoutx]

The Friday afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center Day 11+ Analogs have been issued. Looking like the 'coldest' air is situated over our Region and it looks dry.

[snowman65]

I see all of this talk about the extended cool/cold weather for our part of the country, until the April timeframe even.....my question is.....what IF the groundhog does not see his shadow??? That throws a wrench into the entire thing....weather followers will be in a quandry for sure....

[DoctorMu]

The 12Z guidance continues to advertise a powerful Southern Rockies/Plains storm system early to mid next week. It's looking like a good possibility of much colder air filtering down from Canada arriving Tuesday with temperatures for morning lows in the upper 20's/low 30's likely Thursday and Friday mornings next week. The extended range ensembles are advertising some mighty chilly air settling across North America, East of the Continental Divide around the 9th/11th of February timeframe. There are increasing chances of a Polar Vortex split during that time period suggesting the ' coldest air' across the Northern Hemisphere may be on our side of the World. We will see.

gfs-ens_z500a_sd_nhem_48.png

gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_48.png

Bastardi's nearly beside himself.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 5h5 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
Major arctic outbreak will engulf much of nation between rockies and Appalachians Feb 5-20. Likely coldest 2 weeks of winter