January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook

[srainhoutx]

01212016 mcd0033.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 211659Z - 211900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SE TX AND WRN TO CNTRL LA WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADOES...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A TORNADO
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1012 MB SFC LOW TO THE
NORTH OF HOUSTON WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE
LOW. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL
LA WITH THE WARM SECTOR LOCATED IN SE TX AND SCNTRL LA. SFC
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S F IN CNTRL
LA TO THE MID 60S F NEAR THE LA COAST. SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO
THE 60S F ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR HELPING TO INCREASE INSTABILITY.
MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF SW
LA AND ACROSS MOST OF SE TX. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AND ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
SFC LOW DEEPENS AND THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS
THE REGION. THE MID-LEVEL JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES WITH THE LAKE CHARLES WSR-88D VWP SHOWING 50 TO 55 KT
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES
NEAR 250 M2/S2 SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLY
TORNADOES. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM SHOULD ALSO
BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR
WITH ROTATING STORMS OR SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 01/21/2016


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1131 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CST

* AT 1131 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SEVEN
OAKS...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF LIVINGSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CORRIGAN...SEVEN OAKS...MOSCOW AND LEGGETT.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

HARRIS TX-CHAMBERS TX-SAN JACINTO TX-LIBERTY TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
1141 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA...
NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS...SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO...SOUTHEASTERN
MONTGOMERY...EASTERN HARRIS AND LIBERTY COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM CST...

AT 1139 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT CLEVELAND TO SOUTH HOUSTON...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PASADENA...NORTHERN PEARLAND...NORTHERN LEAGUE CITY...BAYTOWN...
NORTHEASTERN FRIENDSWOOD...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...SOUTH HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...SEABROOK...GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY...WEBSTER...LIBERTY...
CLEVELAND...DAYTON...BEACH CITY...CLEAR LAKE...BARRETT AND GREATER
FIFTH WARD.

[Katdaddy]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 5
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1150 AM UNTIL
700 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND
INTENSIFY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES...IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1222 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

HARRIS TX-CHAMBERS TX-LIBERTY TX-
1222 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS AND LIBERTY COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CST...

AT 1219 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR ROMAYOR TO PASADENA MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING SOME ROTATION IN A STRONGER
STORM WEST OF MOSS HILL IN LIBERTY COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PASADENA...BAYTOWN...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...SOUTH HOUSTON...
SEABROOK...GALENA PARK...LIBERTY...DAYTON...BEACH CITY...BARRETT...
NORTHERN SOUTH BELT / ELLINGTON...CHANNELVIEW...GREATER HOBBY AREA...
HIGHLANDS...CLOVERLEAF...NORTHERN CLEAR LAKE...CROSBY...MONT BELVIEU
AND TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE.

[srainhoutx]

Brrr...that's a chilly wind out there this evening. Looks like the big High Impact Winter Storm is wrapping up quickly. Numerous Winter Storm Warnings have been issued as well as a Blizzard Warning for the Washington DC/Baltimore Area. Looks like some locations along the Appalachian and Shenandoah Range to just S of Philadelphia could see up to 30 inches of snow, if not more. Locally, windchill values will be in the mid/upper 20's inland to near 30 along the Coast.

01212016 US Hazards.png

[BlueJay]

Maybe I'm overreacting, but I brought in my big potted Boston fern tonight. Brrrrr! Windy and cold out there!!

[Katdaddy]

Not at all. I have 2 plants I will bring in tomorrow and yep its cold and windy out there. Getting some strong gusts down here in League City.

[Katdaddy]

Temps in the low 40s and few upper 30s across SE TX with breezy conditions. Skies will continue to clear today as the large powerful Winter Storm moves across the SE US toward the E and NE US. Lots of sun and warming temps for the weekend. Temps N of Houston metro will likely have a light freeze with areas from Houston metro down to the coast will have mid to upper 30s for lows Saturday morning.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like we may well see a light freeze into IAH. College Station is expecting a low of 28F and Galveston is expecting a low of 38F tomorrow morning.

[DoctorMu]

Maybe I'm overreacting, but I brought in my big potted Boston fern tonight. Brrrrr! Windy and cold out there!!

The low and advection are overperforming.

Temps in the upper 20s tonight in CLL

[srainhoutx]

Coldest morning of the Winter Season here in NW Harris County. I dropped to 30F and stayed below freezing for 3 hours. Heavy frost all the way to the ground and both bird baths are frozen solid.

[BlueJay]

Our temp was 32F this morning. Cold enough.

[unome]

I saw this posted on Twitter, never even thought to look at it for a blizzard

200 image loop: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... -N0U-1-200

[srainhoutx]

Another chilly early morning across NW Harris County with temperatures flirting with 33F. The overnight guidance has trended slightly wetter beginning Tuesday as a potent little vort max at the base of the upper trough over Mexico begins to organize. Another strong cold front is expected to drop South across Texas early on Tuesday and bring over running precipitation inland with a chance of storms over the Coastal waters as a weak Coastal wave organizes in response to the approaching upper low/trough. Light snow may develop Tuesday afternoon across the Del Rio and Edwards Plateau in response to upglide ahead of me compact vort max, but chances of anything wintry actually making it to the surface appear too slim to forecast as of this morning. There is some concern with the upper trough still to our West on Wednesday and cold air advection continuing as well as the increase of moisture noted in the guidance, Wednesday may be cloudy cold and dreary across the area. If clouds do clear out Wednesday afternoon, some inland locations may experience yet another light freeze.That said the trends the past 24 hours have increased precipitation chances via all the reliable computer guidance, so we will continue to monitor the next day or two. After this weather maker, we should see a benign weather pattern to end the month of January with a slight warming trend.

[Heat Miser]

Personally enjoyed the thunderstorms we had this month. From my perspective it's been a benign winter thus far for winter weather enthusiast, which isn't me. Not even in the same league as winter 2013/14, which was cold. Srain I see you've started a February thread, very telling.

[DoctorMu]

Conroe came ion at 29° for the low. We had frost, and at the edge of town are a couple of degrees cooler than the airport.

Coolish last 3 weeks but not cold by last winter's standards. No hard freezes yet - I like a few to keep the insects down. Surprisingly dryish in the new year up here...but super El Nino's jump the shark and don't conform to comparisons with other winters.

[Katdaddy]

Next front to arrive early tomorrow Tuesday morning dropping the high temps in the 50s and low temps into the 40s and upper 30s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Chances for showers and light rain increase this afternoon into Tuesday morning mainly along the Upper TX Coast. On Thursday temps begin to slowly rise under sunny skies.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like a fantastic weekend along the entire Gulf Coast for all Mardi Gras Festivities. Pleasant late January temperatures and no rain to worry about.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Cold front will cross the region tonight returning cold air, clouds, and rain for Tuesday.

Upper level pattern has become more zonal (west to east) following the historic weekend blizzard along the US east coast. An upper level system passing over the Midwest this morning will push a frontal boundary into the region tonight. This front will be slow moving….reaching CLL around sunset and not clearing the coast until tomorrow morning. South of this boundary southerly winds will continue to advect moisture northward into the region with both temperatures and dewpoints running a solid 10-20 degrees warmer this morning than yesterday. Dewpoints may begin to push above nearshore water temperatures by late today resulting in the formation of a dense sea fog bank especially this evening as winds weaken ahead of the frontal boundary. In addition to the fog threat…scattered light rain and showers will be possible over much of the region along and ahead of the front this afternoon and tonight.

Cold air advection behind the front will be decent with temperatures likely falling into the 40’s tonight and struggling to reach the lower 50’s on Tuesday. Upper level flow from the WSW/SW will allow moist air to surge up and over the shallow frontal slope resulting in a continued chance of mainly light rains on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Will focus the greatest coverage and amounts south of I-10 where the best moisture will be found. Totals could range from .25-.75 of an inch across the coastal counties with lesser amounts inland. It will be cold on Tuesday with north wind, clouds, and rain.

850mb front should clear the coast early Wednesday allowing more significant drying to move into the region. This will clear the skies and end rain chances. Low dewpoint air mass (20’s and 30’s) will set the stage for near freezing conditions over much of the area by Thursday morning. Think northern and central counties will likely see another light freeze (29-32) on Thursday morning.

Sustained warming trend will commence on Thursday afternoon and last into the weekend with highs likely into the mid 70’s by Saturday and Sunday and lows pushing toward 60 under increasing onshore flow ahead of the next storm system due into the area by the early part of next week.