January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook

[unome]

The cold air is overperforming in CLL (not uncommon with shallow, dense layers), slipping toward 40°F and 30°s... and that tongue of polar air (≥Ice Bowl) is sliding through NE. Should be interesting to see if projected temps are downgraded in TX.

I was just contemplating covering plants, but I guess I'm better safe than sorry... Hooks hasn't updated since about 3pm on my pc & I would hate to lose the plants I've kept alive all year - we were almost spot-on with HGX's forecast by the hour earlier when I checked & were forecast to be just a couple degrees above freezing - hate when that happens...

maybe a job for half-time???

[BigThicket]

I does seem thatcher temps east of I-45 have been lower than anticipated and I wonder if the low pressure riding the tail end of the storm system that came thru last night that is now in Arkansas has helped to drag more cold shallow air south? What's the thoughts?

[srainhoutx]

Cloud deck extends well North of the Red River across the Eastern half to third of Texas as the storm system lifts toward the Ohio Valley. Strong cold Canadian air continues to push S across the Great Plains. We probably will be insulated tonight from freezing temperatures across most of SE Texas. We will see if clouds clear tomorrow before another upper air disturbance and its mid/upper clouds move overhead in the fast flow off the Pacific and the sub tropical jet just offshore.

[DoctorMu]

The cold air is overperforming in CLL (not uncommon with shallow, dense layers), slipping toward 40°F and 30°s... and that tongue of polar air (≥Ice Bowl) is sliding through NE. Should be interesting to see if projected temps are downgraded in TX.

I was just contemplating covering plants, but I guess I'm better safe than sorry... Hooks hasn't updated since about 3pm on my pc & I would hate to lose the plants I've kept alive all year - we were almost spot-on with HGX's forecast by the hour earlier when I checked & were forecast to be just a couple degrees above freezing - hate when that happens...

maybe a job for half-time???

Cloud are projected to break up in CLL about midnight and hit the freezing mark about 6 am. We'll see.

[wxman57]

I was just contemplating covering plants, but I guess I'm better safe than sorry... Hooks hasn't updated since about 3pm on my pc & I would hate to lose the plants I've kept alive all year - we were almost spot-on with HGX's forecast by the hour earlier when I checked & were forecast to be just a couple degrees above freezing - hate when that happens...

maybe a job for half-time???

Unless you're growing orchids (or bananas), your plants can probably tolerate several hours below freezing, though I'm not expecting that long of a freeze for north Houston/Cypress. What kind of plants are you talking about?

[jasons2k]

There is actually quite a variety of plant species common in Houston gardens that will fry at 32f or under frost...that said we shouldn't have any issues tonight.

On a personal note, my old tropical oasis has been bequeathed to a new owner. I have a blank slate to work with and I doubt I will mess with Majesty Palms again. They are beautiful but just too much work to keep from freezing-up. I'll probably stick with fan palms and maybe a queen palm or two. I'll probably fill my beds with tropicals again like some Hawaiian ti plants, crotons, ginger, cannas, hibiscus, etc., but those are cheap and easy to cover or replace.

[unome]

I was just contemplating covering plants, but I guess I'm better safe than sorry... Hooks hasn't updated since about 3pm on my pc & I would hate to lose the plants I've kept alive all year - we were almost spot-on with HGX's forecast by the hour earlier when I checked & were forecast to be just a couple degrees above freezing - hate when that happens...

maybe a job for half-time???

Unless you're growing orchids (or bananas), your plants can probably tolerate several hours below freezing, though I'm not expecting that long of a freeze for north Houston/Cypress. What kind of plants are you talking about?

Mexican Heather, Texas Lantana, Mexican Milkweed, Mexican Petunia - a few Cannas, but I don't care if they die, will probably pull them out myself. They're well watered, thanks to our rain & that always helps. I opted for safe over sorry, but the wind didn't make it easy, had to use bricks to keep the coverings down.

it's 40 at Hooks... dew point of 31, but that looks warmer than everything around it ? http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman ... rawsflag=3

[unome]

There is actually quite a variety of plant species common in Houston gardens that will fry at 32f or under frost...that said we shouldn't have any issues tonight.

On a personal note, my old tropical oasis has been bequeathed to a new owner. I have a blank slate to work with and I doubt I will mess with Majesty Palms again. They are beautiful but just too much work to keep from freezing-up. I'll probably stick with fan palms and maybe a queen palm or two. I'll probably fill my beds with tropicals again like some Hawaiian ti plants, crotons, ginger, cannas, hibiscus, etc., but those are cheap and easy to cover or replace.

Hibiscus are so beautiful & easy to care for in our last home, but I'm running out of space here. After years of losing different plants I opted for more of the "standards" that do well in our hot summers - this site is helpful in choosing what works locally http://texassuperstar.com/plants/index.html

[unome]

HGX's morning discussion:

00
FXUS64 KHGX 101030
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
430 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER
40S NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST. CLOUDS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM COLLEGE STATION TO THE GALVESTON BAY AREA CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY ERODE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT SOME SPOTS
ARE STILL EXPERIENCING GUSTS GENERALLY IN A 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WINDS TO WEAKEN DURING
THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH. DO
NOT SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING MUCH ABOVE AN UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
RANGE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL. HOWEVER...
CONCERNED THAT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING
INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST COULD KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING TOO LOW.
SO FOR NOW...WENT AHEAD AND STUCK CLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS NUMBERS THAT
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S AT
THE COAST. AT THIS TIME...FREEZE WARNINGS WILL NOT BE NEEDED. BUT EVEN
A DEGREE OR TWO ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BY THE
DAY CREW COULD REQUIRE WARNINGS FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO BRING THE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE PART OF OUR NEXT
RAIN MAKER MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SPOTS CLOSE
TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM CLEARS OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...
BUT RAINS COME BACK INTO OUR FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THE NEXT IN LINE DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS OUR AREA. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
TO SEE VERY SLOW WARMING OF TEMPERATURES AS THE UPCOMING WEEK PROGRESSES.
42

&&

.MARINE...
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE GULF COASTAL REGION WILL
WEAKEN OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...GULF ADVISORY FLAGS TO LOWER
TO CAUTION FLAGS THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS ITSELF
OFF TO THE EAST...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BE
COMMONPLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A SERIES
OF UPPER TROUGHS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOWERING COASTAL PRESSURE...
WILL STRENGTHEN THE EASTERLY FETCH. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE SECOND ON EARLY
THURSDAY. ALONG WITH CAUTION LEVEL EASTERLIES AND RESPONDING SEAS
INCREASING BY ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO OCCUR DURING THE PASSAGE OF THESE EARLY AND MID WEEK DISTURBANCES.
31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 48 32 52 37 59 / 0 10 10 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 51 32 54 38 60 / 0 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 50 42 54 46 58 / 0 10 10 30 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA
BAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31

[unome]

temps still dropping, but probably not much longer

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap3.php?map=usa (pop-up on mouse-over)

Hooks: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KDWH

wind chill of -37 in the state of my birth... and why I moved !

[unome]

cold all over... ( from http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/prob32/about.html : generated once per day at approximately 1400 UTC )

Probability of Near-Surface Temperatures at or below 32o F

flash loop http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/prob32/prob32.html

[unome]

Cloud are projected to break up in CLL about midnight and hit the freezing mark about 6 am. We'll see.

Coulter Field hit 32 around 5 am http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KCFD

Easterwood Field between 6 & 7 http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KCLL

[srainhoutx]

Quick update this morning regarding our sensible weather pattern extending into the MLK Holiday period. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) continues to tank nearing -4 while the Pacific North American (PNA) is holding steady near a +2, but is expected to increase to near +4. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is near -1 while the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is near neutral. The MJO is in Phase 8 suggesting that tropical convection East of the Dateline will move toward Mexico/The Caribbean Sea during the upcoming week. The upper air pattern suggests both Northern and Southern stream activity that may attempt to phase or connect which leads to considerable sensible weather forecast volatility beyond Day 4. Midweek should bring increasing rain chances as a disturbance rides SE out of Southern California toward the Texas Gulf Coast and quickly moves NE. A secondary and potentially stronger disturbance that the guidance is struggling to resolve will organize Friday somewhere near the Panhandle ushering in colder air across the Region during the upcoming weekend. The ensembles are hinting of a trailing upper trough behind that feature that digs well to our SW into Mexico. The 12Z GFS 500mb/850mb schemes suggest an upper air disturbance digs well S of the Big Bend across Central Texas with a Coastal low/wave developing after the cold air is established at the surface. There is ensemble support from the European EPS as well as the NAEFS for this potential, so it will be worth monitoring. While it is way to soon to accurately forecast what our sensible weather may bring beyond the 4 to 5 period, it will be interesting to see if the cold surface temperatures suggested in the Medium/Longer Range do indeed verify with a storm organizing over our Region.

01102016 AO ao_sprd2.gif

01102016 tele indices 4panel.png

01102016 MJO twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

01102016 12Z GFS 198 gfs_z500_vort_us_34.png

01102016 12Z GFS 204 gfs_z500_vort_us_35.png

01102016 12Z GFS 198 gfs_mslp_wind_us_34.png

01102016 12Z GFS 204 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png

01102016 12Z GFS 222 gfs_asnow_scus_38.png

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the 12Z European is coming in somewhat similar to the 12Z GFS solution for next weekend and into the MLK Holiday early the following week. Strong cold front arrives next weekend and a Coastal low begins to organize a week from today near Brownsville with chilly surface temperatures established on MLK Day.

01102016 12Z Euro f216.gif

01102016 12Z Euro 216 ecmwf_z500a_sd_namer_10.png

01102016 12Z Euro 216 ecmwf_T850a_us_10.png

[DoctorMu]

Quick update this morning regarding our sensible weather pattern extending into the MLK Holiday period. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) continues to tank nearing -4 while the Pacific North American (PNA) is holding steady near a +2, but is expected to increase to near +4. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is near -1 while the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is near neutral. The MJO is in Phase 8 suggesting that tropical convection East of the Dateline will move toward Mexico/The Caribbean Sea during the upcoming week. The upper air pattern suggests both Northern and Southern stream activity that may attempt to phase or connect which leads to considerable sensible weather forecast volatility beyond Day 4. Midweek should bring increasing rain chances as a disturbance rides SE out of Southern California toward the Texas Gulf Coast and quickly moves NE. A secondary and potentially stronger disturbance that the guidance is struggling to resolve will organize Friday somewhere near the Panhandle ushering in colder air across the Region during the upcoming weekend. The ensembles are hinting of a trailing upper trough behind that feature that digs well to our SW into Mexico. The 12Z GFS 500mb/850mb schemes suggest an upper air disturbance digs well S of the Big Bend across Central Texas with a Coastal low/wave developing after the cold air is established at the surface. There is ensemble support from the European EPS as well as the NAEFS for this potential, so it will be worth monitoring. While it is way to soon to accurately forecast what our sensible weather may bring beyond the 4 to 5 period, it will be interesting to see if the cold surface temperatures suggested in the Medium/Longer Range do indeed verify with a storm organizing over our Region.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... oop-12.gif

Just fun to see a far out solution like the 19th and wintry stuff. Hope we hit all cherries.

[jasons2k]

I should have my first official freeze of the winter season tonight, ending the growing season.

No freeze warning.

Par for the course. Happens every year.

[Ptarmigan]

The forecast models suggest snow could come close to Houston next week. Should be interesting.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight ECMWF has again suggested a strong shot of much colder air arriving Friday/early Saturday with an additional upper air disturbance approaching from the West next weekend as the cold air at the surface is well entrenched across our Region. Once again the European model attempts to develop a coastal wave next Sunday into Monday suggesting the possibility of some wintry mischief across portions of Central and SE Texas. Again, this is a complicated and highly uncertain solution regarding what our sensible weather will actually be beyond 3 to 5 days, so we will continue to monitor as the various features cross the Pacific this week and adjust the MLK Holiday Weekend forecast as we get closer to the end of the work week.

ecmwf_z500a_sd_namer_8.png

ecmwf_T850a_namer_8.png

ecmwf_z500a_sd_namer_9.png

ecmwf_T850a_namer_9.png

[Portastorm]

The 0z European model should it verify would lay down 3" of snow across all of Travis County and the metro Austin area late next weekend. Higher snow amounts in the central and southern Hill Country. Wow!

[srainhoutx]

IAH reached 32F recording the first freeze of the Season.