January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook

[srainhoutx]

Light frost on the rooftops in NW Harris County this morning. That makes the first frost of 2016 and the second frost we have seen so far this Winter in NW Harris County. The first occurred back before the big warm up in December.
The Arctic Oscillation continues to crash nearing -2 with the ensembles suggesting -3 may well be possible in the next 5-7 days. The Pacific North America (PNA) also has risen to very near +2 with the ensembles suggesting it will remain positive for the foreseeable future.

The models are trending toward a possible passage of the first strong cold front late this coming weekend or early next week. The 06Z GFS is 'hinting' of wintry weather across N Texas as the Arctic front advances S across the Southern Plains as a shortwave moves across Texas this coming weekend. The Euro is about 24 hours faster with the front. We will see if the computer models finally settle on a sensible solution later this week. Enjoy the sunshine today. It may be awhile before we see the sun with the active southern stream sub tropical jet nearby as well as all the shortwave upper troughs expected to pass from California across the Desert SW and the Plains this week.

00Z ECMWF:

01042016 00Z Euro f144.gif

06Z GFS:

01042016 06Z GFS 192 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_32.png

[MontgomeryCoWx]

GFS flip flopping again. It also has a CAT 5 ice storm a week and a half out...

[srainhoutx]

The Updated Teleconnection Indices continue to advertise a very chilly and potentially strong Blocking Regime developing across the Northern Hemisphere. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is trending strongly negative and the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) continues to crash into the strongly negative territory. It is also interesting to see the West Pacific Oscillation (WPO) trending rather negative. All the Hemispheric Indicators including the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are pointing to a potentially active weather pattern across our Region during the next few weeks.

[BigThicket]

JMO...but I think you will start to see more runs trend this direction...of course they have to verify, but atmosphere is sending all the right warning signs. I don't think this is going to be business as usual during the last half of Jan. or Feb. I do not want a crippling ice storm, but in this neck of the woods that seems to be par for the course. FYI...I had 34 at my house with a heavy frost on the roof ( I live 35 miles north northwest of Beaumont...ie...Big Thicket, LOL ) and this was about the 4th frost on the roof this year and once before the December blow torch, we briefly hit 32 according to my ole' temperature apparatus...lol

[snowman65]

I had pretty thick icing/frost on my vehicles this morning and I live right on the coast in Orange. Just N of I-10. I was surprised to see that.

[BigThicket]

Joe Bastardi...daily update out on weatherbell.com...warming event underway in the Arctic region and the door is opening. He is very bullish on the flip to cold on cold. I know he is not the end all no all, but he is very well respected for his work in the area of weather cycles and trends. In addition, he is who wall street turns to for extended long term weather forecasting...like they say money talks and...well you know the rest...LOL! Of course if he is wrong then he is just wrong and mother nature can make the best look foolish! My second indicator of where my weather goes on a local basis is KFDM, Greg Bostwick...he is very conservative in his weather approach and knows the effect of the Gulf on our weather...the Pros on this sight seem to be exactly that as well and that makes the information on this site dependable!

[snowman65]

Been watching Bostwick for YEARS....Only one I watch here.

[srainhoutx]

No real change via the 12Z Operational guidance for the upcoming weekend. A shortwave upper trough and a Coastal trough/low are suggested by the reliable guidance Friday night into Saturday moving across our Region. A strong shot of cold air sweeps South following this disturbance.

The longer range GEFS (ensemble) suggests only slight moderation before several more slugs of Arctic air push South out of Canada. The fast progressive flow with a noisy sub tropical jet appears to be the main take away so far. No sign of a significant warming trend in the extended or long range.

[DoctorMu]

GFS flip flopping again. It also has a CAT 5 ice storm a week and a half out...

Even the GFS is doubling down on some kind of wintry stuff. Whatever happens could be interesting.

[nuby3]

that is my favorite GFS run of all time

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Forecaster Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 8+ Analogs suggest what many have believed would be the case. The Coldest air is center near the Great Lakes/Upper Mid West/Ohio Valley with below normal temperatures back into Texas. The precipitation outlook also is indicative of an El Nino Pattern where the Southeastern 1/3 of Texas extending East into Coastal Louisiana along the Gulf Coast toward Florida would tend to be a bit wetter.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON JANUARY 04 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 10 - 14 2016

TODAY'S DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE OFFICIAL BLENDED
HEIGHT PATTERN FEATURES A HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN, CHARACTERIZED BY A
FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, AND A DEEP
TROUGH CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE ANTICIPATED HEIGHT ANOMALY
PATTERN STRONGLY PROJECTS ONTO A NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO), WITH WELL
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS PREDICTED OVER THE HIGH LATITUDES OF THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE, AND WELL BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF THE
MIDDLE LATITUDES. A MUCH LOWER-AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS ALSO ANTICIPATED FROM FAR
EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
ALEUTIAN ARCHIPELAGO AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND ALASKA AND
THE FAR WESTERN CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREDICTED RIDGE AND WELL
ABOVE-NORMAL MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE DEPICTED FROM APPROXIMATELY THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASTWARD TO
NEAR THE APPALACHIANS, DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED TROUGH AND WELL BELOW-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED ACROSS THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE, IN CONNECTION WITH NORTHEASTERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW. PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ENHANCED FOR THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA, AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF BOTH THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN CONUS, PENINSULAR FLORIDA, AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. THIS IS DUE TO
A VARIETY OF FACTORS, SUCH AS THE EXPECTED MEAN POSITION OF THE STORM TRACK,
ONSHORE FLOW, GREAT LAKE-ENHANCED PRECIPITATION, AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE
TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. THE AREA OF EXPECTED
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS DUE TO THE FORECASTED
PROXIMITY OF THE MAIN POLAR FRONT. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS
FROM NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA. THIS IS ALSO DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS, SUCH AS 500-HPA RIDGING AND
ASSOCIATED WELL ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS (ALASKA), AND IN THE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE
WELL BEHIND THE MAIN POLAR FRONT (SOUTHERN CONUS).

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10%
OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: WELL ABOVE-AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT (BETWEEN THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS)
OF A STABLE, HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CIRCULATION PATTERN.

01042016 CPC Day 8+ Analogs 610analog_off.gif

01042016 Day 8+ Analogs 610analog_temp.gif

01042016 Day 8+ Analogs 610analog_prcp.gif

[wxman57]

Been watching Bostwick for YEARS....Only one I watch here.

I went to A&M with Greg. We worked in the weather station, plotting maps (by hand back then) for the met students to analyze. Greg graduated the year before me. He's a good meteorologist. I get to see him each spring when I speak at the pre-hurricane season Rotary Club meeting in Beaumont.

What I see in the models is a slow pattern change that will quite likely bring Houston its first freeze of the winter next week. Nothing major, just low 30s. Possibly upper 20s in north Houston. No indication of any freezing/frozen precipitation over the next 10 days.

Beyond then, the American model (GFS) is indicating a transition (possibly brief) to cross-Polar flow. Such a pattern can move very cold air into northern Canada, and often down to the Gulf Coast. Nothing extreme indicated yet as far as our weather here. I still think there's a fair chance of a freezing rain/sleet/snow event (or two) between late January and the end of February, primarily based upon analog winter seasons.

[jasons2k]

What I see in the models is a slow pattern change that will quite likely bring Houston its first freeze of the winter next week. Nothing major, just low 30s. Possibly upper 20s in north Houston.

Any wagers on if the NWS will issue a freeze warning for this?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

LOL, 18z GFS keeps parts of SE Texas below freezing from 288 to 384 with single digits showing up in that range.

[harpman]

LOL, 18z GFS keeps parts of SE Texas below freezing from 288 to 384 with single digits showing up in that range.

We don't need extreme cold to have wintry fun. If it's too cold, it's as though it saps all the moisture. I would take 30 to 35. Also, does anyone know if the air mass is going to be shallow? If that's the case, all we get is ice. Is there any indication of the thickness value?

[srainhoutx]

It's way too soon to worry about temperatures much less accurately predicting the shortwave features beyond 3 to be 5 days out. That said the ensembles are advertising some mighty big Hemispheric changes are in the offing. The teleconnection indices during this progressive El Nino Winter Pattern are certainly worth monitoring. We are very fortunate to have some of the best weather minds in the business, both Professional Meteorologists and very knowledgeable enthusiast alike as members of our KHOU Weather Forum Community. It's one of the reasons that so many follow our online weather community so faithfully. When weather worries come our way, folks know where they can turn for reasonable and factual information. We all can take pride in that. For our members and those that just monitor this weather board, be sure to let the folks at KHOU.com know how much you appreciate this Weather Forum.

[harpman]

It's way too soon to worry about temperatures much less accurately predicting the shortwave features beyond 3 to be 5 days out. That said the ensembles are advertising some mighty big Hemispheric changes are in the offing. The teleconnection indices during this progressive El Nino Winter Pattern are certainly worth monitoring. We are very fortunate to have some of the best weather minds in the business, both Professional Meteorologists and very knowledgeable enthusiast alike as members of our KHOU Weather Forum Community. It's one of the reasons that so many follow our online weather community so faithfully. When weather worries come our way, folks know where they can turn for reasonable and factual information. We all can take pride in that. For our members and those that just monitor this weather board, be sure to let the folks at KHOU.com know how much you appreciate this Weather Forum.

I follow this forum a lot. Great info here and I am in New Orleans, but always check in to see the latest, even though it's not for my immediate area. It's fairly close and sometimes what Houston gets, New Orleans gets the next day or so.

[BigThicket]

Bottom line if it gets to cold down here there is no moisture to work with...our best chances for frozen precip is probably 28 to 31...if the temp is above freezing like 34 or 35 at the surface and the air column is thick enough and like in the mid to upper 20's with adequate moisture it can snow or sleet pretty hard (once again depending on the depth of the air column) and the snow effect..can drive the air temp down as well as lower the ground temp...from my limited experience.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Bottom line if it gets to cold down here there is no moisture to work with...our best chances for frozen precip is probably 28 to 31...if the temp is above freezing like 34 or 35 at the surface and the air column is thick enough and like in the mid to upper 20's with adequate moisture it can snow or sleet pretty hard (once again depending on the depth of the air column) and the snow effect..can drive the air temp down as well as lower the ground temp...from my limited experience.

These are the storms that give us the most accumulation. It's hard for us to get a lot of moisture when it's been consistently cold

[Kevin Queen]

GFS flip flopping again. It also has a CAT 5 ice storm a week and a half out...

C'mon y'all, don't go there now! That's like 2 weeks away. Maybe get nervous and stay home if it still shows that forecast on the 15th. 'Sides, that looks like it's gonna take place north of the Houston metro, anyway.