January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook

[DoctorMu]

Not sure what got into the 18Z GFS, but it suddenly increases the wintry mix over the Hill Country. And the very long range is a complete flip to very cold Arctic front racing out of Western Canada into the Plains.

The snow protrudes all the way to the Brazos river on the W side of Brazos Co.

[srainhoutx]

Enhance IR and Water Vapor satellite imagery shows a couple of shortwaves that will increase our rain chances later tonight into the weekend advancing E. The first is over Mexico with the secondary shortwave hot on its heals near the Baja Peninsula. The Rex Block over the Great Basin continues to funnel modified Arctic air into Texas. Some moderation appears in store for Monday and Tuesday before the unsettled weather returns with the active sub tropical jet nearby.



The longer range, the ensembles are suggesting a potentially strong upper trough digging into the Desert SW and possibly a cold core upper low organizing somewhere near Arizona/Northern Mexico/New Mexico. If the ensembles are correct, we may see the potential of another strong Winter Storm organize near the 10th-12th of January across our Region with a myriad of weather worries. We will see.

[snowman65]

I know it's long range, but I have a trip to N.E Alabama Jan 14-18, what "may" I expect during that time frame? Thanks!

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Climate Prediction Center Day 11+ Analogs continue to advertise a cold and somewhat unsettled pattern typical of an El Nino year across our Region. Happy New Year KHOU Weather Forum Community!

12312015 CPC Day 11+ 814analog_off.gif

12312015 CPC 814analog_temp.gif

12312015 CPC 814analog_prcp.gif

From Ryan Maue via twitter this afternoon:

12312015 12Z ECMWF EPS untitled.png

[Texaspirate11]

THANKS for all you do.
Happy Blessed 2016!

[Ptarmigan]

They also have 1982 & 2001 as analogs. What can you tell me about those?

January 1983 was warm for most of America. It was cooler than normal for Texas and average for Southeast Texas. January 1983 was a strong El Nino.

January 2001 started cold. There was a freeze that time. It got cold again around January 20, 2001, which hit a lot of 26°F. December 2000 was very cold for Texas and America. January 2001 was a weak and dying La Nina.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-preci ... -rankings/

[Ounce]

Not sure what got into the 18Z GFS, but it suddenly increases the wintry mix over the Hill Country. And the very long range is a complete flip to very cold Arctic front racing out of Western Canada into the Plains.

Maybe the real GFS is on vacation?

[Katdaddy]

A Happy New Year to everyone on the KHOU 11 forum. This is an excellent source of weather information with great discussions. Srainhoutx continues to do an outstanding job with the forum. Dan Meador would be proud. What will the weather bring in 2016 for SE TX? Snow, ice, flooding, severe weather, a hurricane threat………stay tuned throughout year.

[Kevin Queen]

The longer range, the ensembles are suggesting a potentially strong upper trough digging into the Desert SW and possibly a cold core upper low organizing somewhere near Arizona/Northern Mexico/New Mexico. If the ensembles are correct, we may see the potential of another strong Winter Storm organize near the 10th-12th of January across our Region with a myriad of weather worries. We will see.

What kind of weather worries? These GFS frames I'm posting show precipitation in liquid form, not freezing rain like you've been talking about these past few days. 10th and 11th look OK to me. I am seeing a low in the Gulf that might drop some rain on us, but I don't see any real danger to the area. What's the deal, here, my friend?

[harpman]

When is the last time the GFS was right this far out? You can't go by that right now. It is going to be all over the place with this.

[Kevin Queen]

When is the last time the GFS was right this far out? You can't go by that right now. It is going to be all over the place with this.

1. Oh, I agree with you 100% on that, Harpman.

2. Hey, y'all are looking for a dramatic winter storm this January, aren't ya? I'm only trying to help y'all out.

[harpman]

Not arguing with you at all, sir. Just making an observation. I remember 10 to 14 days before Christmas the GFS was showing us with snow and sleet on Christmas day here in SE Louisiana. We were 80 degrees that day.

[Kevin Queen]

Not arguing with you at all, sir. Just making an observation. I remember 10 to 14 days before Christmas the GFS was showing us with snow and sleet on Christmas day here in SE Louisiana. We were 80 degrees that day.

Just goes to show you: forecast models and reality don't mix.

[harpman]

Not arguing with you at all, sir. Just making an observation. I remember 10 to 14 days before Christmas the GFS was showing us with snow and sleet on Christmas day here in SE Louisiana. We were 80 degrees that day.

Just goes to show you: forecast models and reality don't mix.

Exactly!

[Ptarmigan]

Just goes to show you: forecast models and reality don't mix.

Very true. Take the forecast models with a grain of salt.

[Kevin Queen]

Not arguing with you at all, sir. Just making an observation. I remember 10 to 14 days before Christmas the GFS was showing us with snow and sleet on Christmas day here in SE Louisiana. We were 80 degrees that day.

Just goes to show you: forecast models and reality don't mix.

Exactly!

Hardy-har-har!

250
FXUS64 KLCH 010409
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1009 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE SWATH OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS AND
CROSSING THE SABINE RIVER INTO LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE EWD THE REST OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. THIS DEVELOPMENT WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY COMPUTER MODELS...SO
POPS WERE DRAWN MANUALLY BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. PERIOD OF
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...ROUGHLY 60 TO 90
MINUTES...OVER THE SRN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA...PERSISTING LONGER
FARTHER NORTH OVER THE EAST TEXAS LAKES INTO WEST CENTRAL LA WHERE
THE RAIN EXTENDS FARTHER WEST INTO TX. RAIN IS COMING TO AN END IN
BEAUMONT...WHILE THE LEADING EDGE SHOULD REACH A FT POLK TO LAKE
CHARLES LINE WITHIN 30 MIN OR SO...AND BE JUST WEST OF ALEXANDRIA
AND LAFAYETTE BY MIDNIGHT.


So what else are the computer models not handling well, eh?

[BigThicket]

Euro and ensembles are more aggressive and I put my money on the European. But we will see, Bastardi seems to think we are in for a cold and stormy last half of January into February. I guess we will see just how stormy???

[BigThicket]

Canadian whipping GFS butt and the Canadian cold on cold with precip...GFS is becoming obsolete

[srainhoutx]

Canadian whipping GFS butt and the Canadian cold on cold with precip...GFS is becoming obsolete

While the scoring of the GFS does lack against the ECMWF beyond 5 days, the CMC scores even lower than the GFS. That is why you see a blend of all the guidance in the Extended Range by the Weather Prediction Center, and most of the heavier weighting is given to the ensembles when attempting to resolve the various features such as strength of shortwaves and the amplification or lack there of in the various troughs/ridges and upstream pattern over the Pacific and to the N in the Fall and Winter months. For example the operational Euro was bone dry regarding the light precipitation we are experiencing this morning. The forecaster uses all the tools available to them when attempting to issue a sensible weather forecast, and even then those available 'tools' may well be incorrect in the ground truth weather impacts beyond 6 to 24 hours.

Regarding what we may see the first half of January, the various computer schemes are suggesting a very fast flow across the Southern tier of the United States as we would expect in an El Nino pattern. The sub tropical jet continues to be very noisy with storm systems arriving across our Region every 3 to 4 days with varying strength. The ensembles are beginning to converge on a couple of potential significant storms in the extended range. Keep an eye on the January 7th/8th timeframe and around the 13th/14th for yet another strong storm. The Teleconnection Indices continue to advertise a +PNA/-AO/-EPO/- to neutral WPO as well as a wet phase of the MJO (Phase7/8) which tends to suggest a colder weather pattern along and East of the Continental Divide and a continued unsettled pattern from California across the Desert SW into Northern Mexico and Texas as well as the Dixie States along and near the Northern/NE Gulf Coast into Florida.

01012016 00Z Euro GFS Compare test8.gif

12312015 MJO ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

01012016 10Z 7 Day QPF p168i.gif

01012016 twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

[cperk]

Happy New Year to all the KHOU weather forum and your families.I'm looking forward to a great 2016 of weather watching with you guys.Now lets bring on the cold.