October 2015 - Severe Storms/Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfal

[wxman57]

Trend for Halloween weekend is not as rainy. GFS indicates about .75 to 1.5" for Houston, Euro indicates in the 1-3" range on Saturday. Friday looks fine for the party at Discovery Green (Scream on the Green). We'll be biking there in our Halloween jerseys with our bikes lit up with Halloween LEDs.

http://www.discoverygreen.com/scream-on-the-green

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Prediction Center issues a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Friday into early Saturday.

[srainhoutx]

The Storm Prediction Center issues a Marginal Risk for. Severe Storms for Friday.

[Katdaddy]

Two more beautiful SE TX days before the approach of the next storm system. Severe weather and locally heavy rains will be likely Friday and Halloween during the day. The good news is the heaviest rains may move out of SE TX in time for Halloween evening.

From the Hou-Gal NWS HWO:

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY ELEVATE TIDE LEVELS AND SEAS ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO TOTAL UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT LINGERING ACTIVITY COULD BE AROUND FOR ANY OUTDOOR PLANS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Locally heavy rainfall and isolated severe thunderstorms possible Friday-Saturday.

Next in a series of upper level storm systems will move across TX late this week into this weekend. Overall model guidance is maintaining a progressive system, but timing continues to look like Saturday (Halloween) being the main weather event day. Low level moisture will begin to return off the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and really surge into the area on Friday. Warm air advection regime along with increasing SW flow aloft will support increasing rain chances on Friday especially in the afternoon hours. PWS increase Friday night into the 1.7-2.0 inches range which is about .5 of an inch lower than the event this past weekend. Jet dynamics come to bear over the region Friday afternoon into Saturday morning and when combined with the moisture expect a rough of strong to severe thunderstorms. Additionally, a surface low will develop over SE TX and move across the region which will help to focus thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Models have been getting more aggressive with onset of moisture advection on Friday and this may require an increase in Friday rainfall chances and earlier start (mid to late morning) instead of current thinking (late afternoon into evening).

Rainfall:
Current model projections have lower forecasted QPF from earlier in the week suggesting widespread amounts of 1-3 inches instead of 4-6 inches. Overall nature of this storm system is more convective (thunderstorms) which will likely lead to heavier rainfall rates, but faster progressive nature should help to cut back on storm totals. There does appear to be a period from around 300am Saturday morning to around 300pm Saturday afternoon where some degree of cell training could develop over the region especially south of I-10, but this far out such activity remains uncertain.

With grounds saturated and area rivers running high additional rainfall could cause some problems, but think the flood threat is modest at this time.

Severe:
While wind shear parameters will be high, the main question is on the amount of instability, which looks fairly low due to clouds and warm air advection showers in the pre-frontal air mass. Will maintain a small threat for an isolated severe thunderstorms with the main threat being wind damage or an isolated tornado. Will have a better feel for the convective parameters as we move toward Friday.

Timing:
Likely most important for everyone is the timing and will this be out of here by Halloween evening. Forecast models have been generally speeding up the system and starting to converge on a Friday afternoon/evening through mid afternoon Saturday timing. Current thinking is that the heavy stuff will be east of SE TX by around sunset Saturday, but with the upper level low lingering to the west a period of light overrunning rainfall is possible into Saturday night and Sunday. Winds will be gusty from the south during the day Saturday and then turn out of the NW post front Saturday afternoon and evening with temperatures falling into the lower 60’s.

[wxman57]

Good discussion from Jeff. I agree. A lot less rainfall than last weekend but rainfall rates will be much higher. Instead of it taking 12 hours for 1-3 inches to fall it could fall in an hour or two. Most likely time is early Saturday morning to around noon. May be some lingering showers Saturday afternoon.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Big changes on the way…Friday and Saturday…rain looks to end before Halloween evening.

Strong upper level storm system is rapidly advancing into the SW US this morning and will move into and across TX Friday and Saturday. Moisture is quickly pooling south of a frontal boundary that crossed the region yesterday along the lower TX coast and will rapidly advance northward late this afternoon and tonight. Dewpoints currently in the 40’s and 50’s will rise into the upper 60’s on Friday and near 70 or greater Friday night. Surface low pressure developing over the Pecos valley region of TX will force a strong low level jet by early Friday over the coastal bend into SE TX with strong south winds likely…wind advisories may be needed on Friday. Warm air advection regime will likely begin to produce enough lift to generate a few showers and even thunderstorms by early to mid afternoon Friday across our western counties with this activity spreading eastward during the evening hours. Might see an isolated strong storm with this development.

Friday night-Saturday midday:
Strong lift and dynamics come to bear across a very moist air mass with PWS surging to 2.0-2.2 inches. As the surface low moves NE across the state backed low level winds will increase shear values Friday night. While this would normally yield an increased tornado threat, a general lack of instability should help to moderate the strong shear values. However the tropical nature of the air mass and high shear environment could certainly produce a few low topped supercells with quick short lived tornadoes…not much different from last weekend.

Convective nature of the event will result in high short term rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour. Meso models do suggest a couple of line segments over SE TX Saturday morning that may want to slow and train for a period of time, but overall progressive nature of the event should preclude a widespread flash flood threat. Localized flooding will be possible especially in urban areas.

Saturday evening:
Storm system will exit to the east Saturday afternoon and evening with rainfall ending. Most of the rainfall will likely be over and done by sunset, but cannot rule out an isolated lingering showers. Temperatures will cool into the low to mid 60’s with light NW winds.

Hydro:
Significant flood wave generated on the Trinity River from the 15-20 inches of rainfall last week around Corsicana is moving downstream toward Lake Livingston. Upstream flood control operations on Richland Chambers Reservoir continue. Richland Chambers set a new record discharge this past weekend of over 140,000 cfs being released (60,000 cfs was the old record). Lake Livingston has begun flood gate operations to attempt to draw down the full pool level of the lake prior to the flood wave entering Livingston this weekend. Based on current upstream flows and with the expected additional rainfall this weekend it is certain that the river below Livingston will go into flood and likely major flood at Liberty. This will likely be an extended flood for the lower Trinity basin given the amount of upstream run-off moving downstream and the continued wet forecast.

Tides:
Lunar tides are running high and will continue to run high into this weekend. After the “great blow out” Sunday when the water level in the NW part of Galveston bay dropped over 4.0 ft in 24 hours…water levels have been increasing since then and are now running about 1 ft above normal. Strong southerly winds on Friday will add a little more water pushing levels to near 1.5 ft, but a southerly wind is not as favorable coastal flood wind for us as an easterly wind.

Long Term:
Another storm system will move toward TX around the middle of next week with additional rainfall likely.

[srainhoutx]

Isolated to scattered strong/severe storms are still a possibility Friday evening into midday Saturday. There is an isolated possibility of a tornado or two as well particularly across S and Central Texas.

[Ptarmigan]

Isolated to scattered strong/severe storms are still a possibility Friday evening into midday Saturday. There is an isolated possibility of a tornado or two as well particularly across S and Central Texas.

Fall is another tornado season like Spring. Houston area has seen tornado outbreaks in the Fall, like in November 1992.

[Katdaddy]

Flash Flood Watches in effect for Central TX with Flash Flood Warning issued for the San Antonio area this morning. The SPC also has a slight risk area across Central TX today. Increasing showers and thunderstorms will spread E into SE TX today along with increasing winds. Wind Advisories may issued later this morning. Locally heavy rains and strong to severe storms will be possible from late this afternoon through noon Saturday. Looking good for trick or treating as the rains should have pushed into LA by the evening with cooler temps.

[unome]

some flooding in central texas ? and a tornado watch

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0523.html


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 523
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
605 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 605 AM UNTIL NOON CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...A FEW MORE SUPERCELLS...AND A COUPLE OF ASSOCIATED TORNADOES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID-LATE MORNING AS AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AND INTERACTS WITH A WARM FRONT.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HONDO TEXAS TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF COLLEGE STATION TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22025.


...EDWARDS

A surface low pressure will materialize over Texas and will track across the Southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley this weekend. Copious amounts of moisture will pump into the area ahead of the system and will aid in the development of numerous showers and thunderstorms over the Southwest, Southern /Central Rockies and the Southern Plains. Snow will be possible along the higher terrain in Colorado. The low pressure system and the plume of deep moisture will shift east toward the Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi valley on Saturday. Periods of heavy rain will likely bring widespread amounts of 2 to 4 inches for these areas, with up to 6 inches possible for south-central Texas -- may lead to the possibility of flash flooding for portions of the Southern Plains today and portions of the lower Mississippi valley Saturday and Sunday.

Isolated to scattered strong/severe storms are still a possibility Friday evening into midday Saturday. There is an isolated possibility of a tornado or two as well particularly across S and Central Texas.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

SPC has issued a Tornado Watch until noon for portions of SC and SE TX.

Lead short wave moving out of MX has combined with increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to produce a large area of strong to severe thunderstorms…a few that have been tornado warned. Greatest threat for tornadoes this morning will be along and SE of a line from San Antonio to near College Station where maritime tropical air mass has returned. Low level shear values have been increased over the region due to the approach of the upper level impulse out of MX. Supercell structures have been noted on the cells SE of San Antonio leading to a few tornado warnings.

Secondary impulse will likely arrive into SE TX this afternoon with widespread thunderstorms likely be evening once again a tornado risk will be possible along with very heavy rainfall.

Flash flooding is already ongoing in Central TX along I-35 between Austin and San Antonio where very heavy rainfall is currently in progress. This heavy rainfall will impact our western counties this morning and possibly reach into our central counties. Expect widespread heavy rainfall tonight into early Saturday with some minor flooding possible.

Lastly, pressure gradient is really going to tighten this morning as low pressure deepens over SW TX. Winds will rapidly increase into the 20-35mph range and a wind advisory may be needed for portions or all of the region.

Tornado Watch Outline and Radar Overlay:

[srainhoutx]

The 09Z HRRR suggests heavy rainfall with some severe storms possible and possibly some embedded super cellular storms approaching from the SW this evening with round 2.

[srainhoutx]

10302015 0824Z Excessive Rainfall Outlook 94ewbg.gif

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
424 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...VALID 12Z FRI OCT 30 2015 - 12Z SAT OCT 31 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

...OK/TX/WRN LA...

BEGINNING TO SEE A THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT SHOULD BE ANOTHER HEAVY
TO PSBL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT FOR PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS IN
ADVANCE OF VERY SLOW MOVING HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF PUSHING EWD
FROM THE 4 CORNERS REGION. SOME SIMILARITIES TO RAINFALL EVENT
LAST WEEK IN THIS AREA..WITH VERY DEEP TROPICAL MSTR FEEDING NWD
FROM THE WRN GULF INTO SRN TX AND INCREASINGLY STG DIFFLUENT RT
ENTRANCE REGION JET DVLP OVER AXIS OF STG LOW LEVEL MSTR FLUX.
THE COMBO OF 85H SLY WINDS INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KTS AND PWS IN
THE 2 TO 2.25"+ RANGE WILL PRODUCE MSTR FLUX VALUES OF 4 TO 5 STDS
ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE NOT UNANIMOUS THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A
CONSENSUS OF TWO MAIN AREAS OF HEAVER RAIN. ONE DVLPG ALONG
INTERSECTION OF LOW LEVEL JET AND SFC/85H FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDING
NWD FROM NCNTL TX INTO CNTL OK SE KS..WHILE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
BAND IS EXPECTED TO DVLP FARTHER SOUTH EAST OF DEL RIO. MOST OF
THE HI RES GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN GEM..12Z EC SUPPORT
THIS IDEA WITH CONVECTION ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PD EAST OF
DEL RIO AND EXPANDING EWD INTO THE INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND INSTABILITY. GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS DVLPG FRI NIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW STGR ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY SINK ESEWD ACRS ERN TX. ONE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS HOW ORGANIZED CNVTN MAY BECOME ALONG THE TX COAST
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEP PW AXIS. THE GFS DVLPS A BIT
MORE ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST OF MX/SE TX ON FRI...REDUCING AMOUNTS
FARTHER INLAND. THERE MAY BE SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES AS WELL S. THIS
SOLN IS A BIT OF A OUTLIER SOLN SO RELIED MORE ON HI RES/CANADIAN
GEM/EC IDEA FOR NOW. TIMING WISE THE NAM SEEMED A BIT ON THE
SLOW SIDE WITH THE UPR TROF...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY. WHILE
THERE WERE STILL LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIER
RAINS...OVERALL THINK A RATHER LARGE AREA OF 2 TO 5+ INCH RAINS
WILL DVLP ACRS ERN TX GIVEN THE STG MSTR FLUX ANOMALIES AND OVER
ALL SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPR TROF. FARTHER NORTH...SOME 1 TO 2"+
AREAL AVG RAINS LOOK REASONABLE ACRS N TX INTO OK. THE HEAVIER
RAINS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RENEWED RUNOFF ISSUES GIVEN THE RECENT
HEAVY RAINS THAT AFFECTED A GOOD PORTION OF THIS REGION WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF ECNTL TX
WHERE A MDT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
718 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL COMAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
CENTRAL GUADALUPE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL HAYS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 745 AM CDT

* AT 717 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER GERONIMO...OR NEAR SEGUIN...MOVING NORTH
AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
ZORN AROUND 725 AM CDT.
NEW BRAUNFELS AROUND 730 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
FREIHEIT...HUNTER...REDWOOD AND GRUENE.

[srainhoutx]

6.31 inches of rain has fallen since midnight 5 miles SSW of Dripping Springs according to an LCRA Gauge.

[srainhoutx]

Rough 24 to 30 hours ahead folks...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
719 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.AVIATION...
GEARING UP FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION WILL BE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
FORCING OF THE JET STREAM OVER A VERY MOIST REGIONAL AIR MASS.
THIS FORECAST FAIRLY WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM HAS THE MAIN
THREATS FOCUSED AROUND THE WINDS...STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
WITHIN STORM DRAFTS AND A MENTIONABLE OVERNIGHT TORNADO THREAT.
LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY VEER WITH HEIGHT AND
THIS WILL SUPPORT A (DIRECTIONALLY) SHEARED BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT.
THIS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY PASSING THUNDERSTORM/UPDRAFT TO
ROTATE...OR DEVELOP A MESOCYCLONE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIMIT VISIBILITIES TO UNDER 2 MILES...CEILINGS WILL WAVER FROM
MVFR TO IFR THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE EXISTENCE OF A
40-50 KT OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL JET MAY ONLY ACT TO ENHANCE THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE LIKELY CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE WIND SHEAR...HIGHER NON-CONVECTIVE SURFACE WINDS WILL
PRECLUDE WS020 LLWS WITHIN THIS TAF PACKAGE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSES EAST OF THE REGION HALLOWEEN NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN TO WANE AND CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 31

[srainhoutx]

That tornado warned cell passed directly over NWS Austin/San Antonio. The tornado is confirmed on the ground.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
730 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

COMAL TX-GUADALUPE TX-HAYS TX-
730 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL COMAL...NORTH CENTRAL GUADALUPE AND SOUTH CENTRAL HAYS
COUNTIES...

AT 729 AM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ZORN...OR NEAR
NEW BRAUNFELS...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
EAST CENTRAL COMAL...NORTH CENTRAL GUADALUPE AND SOUTH CENTRAL HAYS
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...FREIHEIT...HUNTER...
REDWOOD AND GRUENE.

[srainhoutx]

Water Vapor imagery suggests a good tropical moisture feed from the Eastern Pacific and the Western Gulf. Very effective upper wind dynamics suggests efficient heavy rainfall producing thunderstorms and brief tornadoes will continue throughout the morning hours.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
743 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL GUADALUPE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL CALDWELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HAYS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 830 AM CDT

* AT 742 AM CDT...A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NORTH OF
ZORN...NEAR SOUTH SAN MARCOS NEAR HIGHWAY 123...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
MARTINDALE AROUND 810 AM CDT.
SAN MARCOS AROUND 820 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
REDWOOD...REEDVILLE AND MAXWELL.