September 2015: Pleasant Weather To End The Month

[Rip76]

94L INVEST 150913 1200 22.5N 96.5W ATL 20 1010

Western Gulf of Mexico.

[ticka1]

94L INVEST 150913 1200 22.5N 96.5W ATL 20 1010

Western Gulf of Mexico.

yep will it develop and head towards se texas?

[Paul Robison]

94L INVEST 150913 1200 22.5N 96.5W ATL 20 1010

Western Gulf of Mexico.

yep will it develop and head towards se texas?

No, it will not develop and head towards SE TX. It will push into coastal Mexico on Monday, last I heard.

I do have one question for y'all: Will this mean an excess surge of tropical moisture from the Gulf, leading to heavy, gusty storms like we had last Thursday/Friday?

[Katdaddy]

Rain chances increase for Tuesday and Wednesday as some moisture from Invest 94L moves onshore. Currently Invest 94L is very disorganized with low chances of tropical development.

From the NHC:

Shower activity is minimal in association with an area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days while it moves little. After a couple of days, a slow
west-northwestward motion toward Mexico is expected and land
interaction should limit development. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
Monday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[tireman4]

Boy, that front was refreshing, was it not? Just a harbinger of things to come. I think I am right in this statement, ( I am trying to paraphrase Dan Meador..whom we still love no matter what) once that first (strong) front comes through, that sets the path for the next ones to follow in short order. Well to almost Fall.

[Paul Robison]

Infrared GOES satellite imagery indicates Invest 94L appearing (appearing, mind you) to be breaking up and moving eastward, apparently toward the Louisiana coast. If I'm seeing it right, this may have significant ramifications for today's weather. Or will it? Take a look.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

[Katdaddy]

A 40% chances of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly along the coastal areas of SE TX this afternoon as the warm front washes out. An upper level high pressure area builds across SE TX leading to dry and hot weather through the weekend. Disorganized Invest 94L will drift inland over MX later today.

[Rip76]

Nice flare up of convection in the gulf this morning.

[nuby3]

Nice flare up of convection in the gulf this morning.

agreed

[brooksgarner]

We're looking at this too... It's a stationary front just sitting over the warm Gulf. There's shear, but also the remnants of Grace entering the Gulf from the FL Keys tomorrow... Will be interesting to see if anything unexpected happens. NHC is not speculating... 0% chance as of their latest forecast. Only model showing development is Canadian model, but there's nothing new there -- it'll spin up anything and everything. More now at Noon on the TV side.

[DoctorMu]

She's throwing up quite a sea breeze from the brew:

[Rip76]

And poof.

[BiggieSmalls]

Soo...when is the next true cool front? Aka - highs in the low to mid 80s, lows well into the 60s?

[wxman57]

Latest GFS run indicate nothing in the way of a cold front over the next 10 days. Summer has returned.

[brooksgarner]

Tropics: The doldrums are back! Starting tomorrow, it'll be pretty rare to even have much to show on radar around here in Houston. Quiet weather is good weather, but we'll have to wait over a week before there are any big changes. The Canadian model has called for something in the Gulf, but it often does with no verification... That'll be the only "unexpected" weather in the near future if something like that were to happen.

Cold fronts: The models have been flip-flopping in the long range on timing for our next "real" cold front -- but we're talking well into October at this point. We may have a slight wind shift this weekend, replacing our dew points in the mid-70s with dew points in the mid/upper 60s (slightly better), but it's not much more of an air mass change since it'll still be in the 90s.

When it happens, it'll happen fast. Check out these normal highs/lows in October! (It should start to feel better around here in about 2-3 more weeks.)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_normals_oct

[snowman65]

Late October???. That's already depressing....

[Electric Lizard]

We just had a very small shower at my house out here in the Energy Corridor. It was so small that it showed up as a single faint green pixel on the HGX radar. My neighbors should thank me for it as I just washed and waxed my car.

[srainhoutx]

The Climate Prediction Center has issued their October Temperature and Precipitation Forecast. Nothing out of the ordinary that I can see and the latest 3 Month forecast is 'Colder and Wetter' for portions of West and S Central Texas with Cool to Normal temperatures into the early Winter months and much above normal precipitation to our West and above normal precipitation across the Eastern half of Texas.

09172015 CPC Oct off14_temp.gif

09172015 CPC Oct off14_prcp.gif

3 Month Outlook:

09172015 CPC 3 Month off01_temp.gif

09172015 CPC 3 Month off01_prcp.gif

[brooksgarner]

Anyone spying the super-long term 10-day forecasts from the GFS and EURO? Both seem to be suggesting development in the Caribbean Sea. Perhaps the season isn't done yet.

[wxman57]

Anyone spying the super-long term 10-day forecasts from the GFS and EURO? Both seem to be suggesting development in the Caribbean Sea. Perhaps the season isn't done yet.

I've noticed that as well. Models are seeing something, but they're also indicating quite strong upper-level westerly winds (and wind shear) across the central to northern Gulf at the same time. The GFS appears to be developing a surface reflection of an upper-level low/trof, something the Canadian model is usually the champion at doing. I don't see anything to indicate a potential threat to the northern Gulf coast should anything develop down there.