September 2015: Pleasant Weather To End The Month

[wxman57]

Here's a meteogram from the 12Z GFS. It's not as cool with the highs early next week - still in the upper 80s. However, raw temperature data still in the low 60s for lows on Monday.

[Electric Lizard]

I'm more excited about the lower dewpoints!

[stormlover]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=155


I know its the Canadian but interesting

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=155


I know its the Navgem but interesting

[wxman57]

That's why we don't use the Canadian or NAVGEM models for tropical cyclone forecasting.

[stormlover]

yeah really bad models but fun to look at all the models lol

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests a surface trough and weak low pressure begins to organize at the tail end of the boundary near Tampico and keeps it weak and moving slowly to the N. The 12Z Euro also develops an area of low pressure near Tampico, but moves it more NNE to NE allowing for that low to organize a bit more before moving into SW/S Central Louisiana.

[stormlover]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=255

[stormlover]

euro really blows it up

[wxman57]

If it develops as the ECMWF is forecasting, then it will likely track northeastward, possibly to SE LA or FL Panhandle. Way too early to be confident that the Euro has a good handle on it.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon update from the HPC/WPC suggests that a weak surface low and a trough of low pressure is the solution they are buying today. The surface charts for Day 3 to 7 indicate a slow meandering area of low pressure near Tampico early next week.

[wxman57]

Yeah, I wouldn't forecast a hurricane in the Gulf just yet...

[srainhoutx]

Yeah, I wouldn't forecast a hurricane in the Gulf just yet...

I agree. I am a bit intrigued at some other factors that we mentioned earlier in this thread. It looks like we have a bit of support with rising air across the Eastern Pacific moving into the Western Gulf next week that would favor thunderstorm development over the very warm waters of the Western Gulf. Also there are a couple of easterly waves moving across the hostile environment of the Caribbean Sea at the moment that may allow a bit of spin to develop at the surface...over time. I also see a lot of deep convection firing near and to the SSE the Gulf of Tehuantepec offshore of Central America. It wouldn't be the first time a piece of mid level energy managed to cross over from the EPAC into the Bay of Campeche/Western Gulf and as we often mention around here, the tail end of a stalled boundary in early/mid September across the Western Gulf usually is at least worth monitoring. Regardless, it looks wet into at least early next week.

09082015 MJO twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

09082015 20Z 7 Day QPF p168i.gif

[DoctorMu]

If it develops as the ECMWF is forecasting, then it will likely track northeastward, possibly to SE LA or FL Panhandle. Way too early to be confident that the Euro has a good handle on it.

982 mmHg lurking at hr 240 off Galveston.

[Paul Robison]

If it develops as the ECMWF is forecasting, then it will likely track northeastward, possibly to SE LA or FL Panhandle. Way too early to be confident that the Euro has a good handle on it.

982 mmHg lurking at hr 240 off Galveston.

A portrait of trouble, folks....

[srainhoutx]

A complex of thunderstorms across North Texas ahead of the cold front should push further S before weakening later this morning. An outflow boundary may near the Bryan/College Station area this afternoon firing off another round of showers and storms this afternoon across our Northern Zones while isolated showers and storms develop along the seabreeze pushing N.

Tomorrow could be rather wet and stormy as the frontal boundary begins to nudge closer to Central Texas setting the stage for showers and thunderstorms and possibly heavy rainfall extending into Friday. A secondary push of drier air should arrive Friday afternoon into Saturday temporarily bringing a break from the wet weather that lasts until Sunday night into Monday.

Attention then shifts to our South as a slug of deep tropical moisture streams N and a weak surface low pressure area begins to organize along a trough of lower pressure over the Western Gulf. The overnight GFS and Euro finally have come into somewhat better agreement suggesting a weak surface low will track N toward the Texas and Louisiana Coasts bringing chances for additional heavy rainfall...but little if any chance of wind. The European dropped the idea of a stronger possibly warm core tropical system and is more inline with what the GFS had been suggesting. Next Tuesday into Wednesday could bring rounds of heavy rainfall as this feature nears the Coast and finally moves inland later next week.

[wxman57]

The overnight ECMWF run dropped the storm in favor of the GFS's solution of a weak frontal low. That would appear more likely.

Meanwhile, looks like a significant cold front will move though Houston early on Saturday.

[Stormrider]

At this point, I'm not worried about a wind event. I am concerned about heavy rainfall fron a slow moving systen, whether organized or not. This on top of whatever rainfall SE gets in the next few days. Rapid intensifiaction ala Alicia or Humberto is in the back of my mind; the Gulf is rather toasty. It's just a wait and see situation.

[wxman57]

Latest GFS run is a few degrees warmer post-frontal than the overnight run. Nice weather for the weekend but rainy next week. The GFS has also given up on the low in the Gulf, at least as far as it becoming a TD/TS. Frontal wave or weak low most likely.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z ECMWF is back to its old trick of developing a closed surface low early next week.

09092015 12Z 168 ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_8.png

09092015 12Z 192 ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_9.png

[stormlover]

EURO really blows this up