August 2015 - Isolated Rain Chances to End August

[wxman57]

1.28" in Westbury.

[Katdaddy]

Severe thunderstorms continue to push slowly S of Houston metro this evening. Only .28" of rain but had some strong gusting winds.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
658 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
CENTRAL WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 657 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS STRETCHED FROM LEAGUE CITY TO RICHMOND TO
BEASLEY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN PEARLAND...SOUTHERN LEAGUE CITY...SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
CITY...TEXAS CITY...SOUTHERN FRIENDSWOOD...SOUTHERN ROSENBERG...
ALVIN...DICKINSON...LA MARQUE...SANTA FE...WHARTON...HITCHCOCK...
MANVEL...FRESNO...NEEDVILLE...EAST BERNARD...DANBURY...ARCOLA...
WALLIS AND IOWA COLONY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. THIS IS A VERY
DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

[Cromagnum]

And not one drop of rain. The storm split, said eff you and laughed at my fence, and went right on down the highway.

[Paul Robison]

As much as I hate to post this:


Local Storm Report



08/11/2015 0454 PM

7 miles S of Tomball, Harris County.

Thunderstorm wind gust m60 mph, reported by ASOS.


Thunderstorm wind gust was measured at dwh ASOS site.




08/11/2015 0554 PM

2 miles E of morgan's pointll, Harris County.

Marine tstm wind gust m60 mph, reported by ASOS m43 mph, reported by ports.


Wind gust was measured at Morgans Point ports site.




08/11/2015 0600 PM

Houston, Harris County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by broadcast media.


Freeway sign wind damage at Scott street and loop 610




08/11/2015 0454 PM

7 miles S of Tomball, Harris County.

Thunderstorm wind gust m60 mph, reported by ASOS.


Thunderstorm wind gust was measured at dwh ASOS site.




08/11/2015 0554 PM

2 miles E of morgan's pointll, Harris County.

Marine tstm wind gust m60 mph, reported by ASOS m43 mph, reported by ports.


Wind gust was measured at Morgans Point ports site.




08/11/2015 0600 PM

Houston, Harris County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by broadcast media.


Freeway sign wind damage at Scott street and loop 610




08/11/2015 0454 PM

7 miles S of Tomball, Harris County.

Thunderstorm wind gust m60 mph, reported by ASOS.


Thunderstorm wind gust was measured at dwh ASOS site.




08/11/2015 0554 PM

2 miles E of morgan's pointll, Harris County.

Marine tstm wind gust m60 mph, reported by ASOS m43 mph, reported by ports.


Wind gust was measured at Morgans Point ports site.




08/11/2015 0600 PM

Houston, Harris County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by broadcast media.


Freeway sign wind damage at Scott street and loop 610




08/11/2015 0454 PM

7 miles S of Tomball, Harris County.

Thunderstorm wind gust m60 mph, reported by ASOS.


Thunderstorm wind gust was measured at dwh ASOS site.




08/11/2015 0554 PM

2 miles E of morgan's pointll, Harris County.

Marine tstm wind gust m60 mph, reported by ASOS m43 mph, reported by ports.


Wind gust was measured at Morgans Point ports site.




08/11/2015 0600 PM

Houston, Harris County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by broadcast media.


Freeway sign wind damage at Scott street and loop 610




08/11/2015 0454 PM

7 miles S of Tomball, Harris County.

Thunderstorm wind gust m60 mph, reported by ASOS.


Thunderstorm wind gust was measured at dwh ASOS site.




08/11/2015 0554 PM

2 miles E of morgan's pointll, Harris County.

Marine tstm wind gust m60 mph, reported by ASOS m43 mph, reported by ports.


Wind gust was measured at Morgans Point ports site.




08/11/2015 0600 PM

Houston, Harris County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by broadcast media.


Freeway sign wind damage at Scott street and loop 610




08/11/2015 0454 PM

7 miles S of Tomball, Harris County.

Thunderstorm wind gust m60 mph, reported by ASOS.


Thunderstorm wind gust was measured at dwh ASOS site.




08/11/2015 0554 PM

2 miles E of morgan's pointll, Harris County.

Marine tstm wind gust m60 mph, reported by ASOS m43 mph, reported by ports.


Wind gust was measured at Morgans Point ports site.




08/11/2015 0600 PM

Houston, Harris County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by broadcast media.


Freeway sign wind damage at Scott street and loop 610




08/11/2015 0454 PM

7 miles S of Tomball, Harris County.

Thunderstorm wind gust m60 mph, reported by ASOS.


Thunderstorm wind gust was measured at dwh ASOS site.




08/11/2015 0554 PM

2 miles E of morgan's pointll, Harris County.

Marine tstm wind gust m60 mph, reported by ASOS m43 mph, reported by ports.


Wind gust was measured at Morgans Point ports site.




08/11/2015 0454 PM

7 miles S of Tomball, Harris County.

Thunderstorm wind gust m60 mph, reported by ASOS.


Thunderstorm wind gust was measured at dwh ASOS site.




08/11/2015 0554 PM

2 miles E of morgan's pointll, Harris County.

Marine tstm wind gust m60 mph, reported by ASOS m43 mph, reported by ports.


Wind gust was measured at Morgans Point ports site.




08/11/2015 0454 PM

7 miles S of Tomball, Harris County.

Thunderstorm wind gust m60 mph, reported by ASOS.


Thunderstorm wind gust was measured at dwh ASOS site.




08/11/2015 0554 PM

2 miles E of morgan's pointll, Harris County.

Marine tstm wind gust m60 mph, reported by ASOS m43 mph, reported by ports.


Wind gust was measured at Morgans Point ports site.




08/11/2015 0554 PM

2 miles E of morgan's Point, Harris County.

Marine tstm wind m43 mph, reported by ports.


Wind gust was measured at Morgans Point ports site.





08/11/2015 0554 PM

2 miles E of morgan's Point, Harris County.

Marine tstm wind m43 mph, reported by ports.


Wind gust was measured at Morgans Point ports site.





08/11/2015 0554 PM

2 miles E of morgan's Point, Harris County.

Marine tstm wind m43 mph, reported by ports.


Wind gust was measured at Morgans Point ports site.





08/11/2015 0642 PM

2 miles WNW of south housto, Harris County.

Marine tstm wind e60 mph, reported by public.


Large tree was downed in a backyard near the
intersection of Monroe Road and Interstate 45.


I could cry.

[srainhoutx]

One more day of Heat Advisories and a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms late in the day and then things look to cool down a bit and likely dry out as subsidence behind the weak front filters in across our Region.

That long anticipated pattern change begins in earnest during the latter part of the weekend into next week as normal summertime temperatures develop and a fairly good chance of daily showers and storms enter the sensible forecast. Lower pressures build across the Northern Gulf Coast into SE Texas as a meandering upper low moves Westward as a trough becomes established over the Eastern United States. Our pesky upper ridge will be well West of Texas as a robust shortwave trough develops across the Central portion of the Nation later next week suggesting we may see a more unsettled pattern develop into the coming work week.

[Rip76]

Yes.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Impressive weather day across the region on Tuesday as temperatures soared to record values and then severe wind damaging thunderstorms erupted.

Heat:
BUSH IAH: 106 breaking record of 102 in 2011.
Hobby Airport: 104 breaking record of 101 in 2011
College Station: 106 which tied record of 106 in 200
Victoria: 104 breaking record of 103 in 2014
See below for storm reports.

Weak boundary remains over SE TX this morning with moisture having pooled. Overnight cloud debris has generally dissipated and strong solar heating will be underway this morning. Overall air mass has cooled a couple of degrees due to both the upper ridge shifting NW of SE TX and the cool outflow from the overnight storms. Most locations have seen their “coolest” overnight lows in a long time this morning with lows well into the 70’s.

With moisture and boundary in place this afternoon expect another round of storms. Very little change in forecast soundings versus yesterday with dry sub cloud layer (bases were pretty high yesterday) which will allow for a good amount of evaporation of the rain core and strong damaging winds. Outflow boundaries will sharpen due to the strong thermal contrast between the super-heated air mass and rain cooled boundaries. For example yesterday Conroe fell from 104 to 92 in 10 minutes with a wind gust to 55mph from thunderstorm outflow.

Think the biggest severe threat today will be west of the Brazos River, but will not rule out any of the region as drier air over Louisiana has yet to reach our NE counties.

Weekend/Next Week:
Models continue to advertise a more significant pattern change with upper level troughing developing over the NW Gulf in combination a surge a deep tropical moisture. Expect daily seabreeze thunderstorms to develop by Sunday and continue into next week. Rain chances will likely need to be raised during this period as the time approaches and confidence builds.

Fire Weather:
A ton of cloud to ground lightning yesterday with the storms along with very strong gusty winds. Luckily most areas that saw lightning also saw some degree of rainfall…but would not be surprised if fire starts have occurred in the areas east of I-45 where vegetation was extremely dry and storms more isolated in nature. Air mass recovery of RH overnight has been very good and winds are clam and not expecting much wind until storms get going this afternoon. Afternoon RH will not be as low this afternoon as previous days. Looking better for wetting rainfall this weekend and early next week which should greatly help fine fuel health.

Severe Reports (Tuesday):

5 WSW Montgomery, Montgomery: est winds 55-65mph downed trees. One truck crushed

Tomball, Harris: Hooks Airport ASOS recorded 60mph on outflow boundary

Conroe, Montgomery: Airport ASOS recorded E 32g55mph

Morgan’s Point, Harris: 43mph at PORTS site

Houston, Harris: Large metal TXDOT sign across 610 south loop at Scott St damaged closing all lanes of 610 loop

Houston, Harris: Extensive damage (possible microburst) 610 south Loop near Scott. Part of metal building roof torn off…numerous trees down

Channelview, Harris: 46mph wind gust recorded by Hurricane monitoring tower (Weatherflow) site.

San Leon, Galveston: Hurricane monitoring weather site (Weatherflow) recorded 43mph over Galveston Bay

Sugar Land, Fort Bend: 1.0 in hail

Sugar Land, Fort Bend: Airport ASOS recorded 61mph

Sugar Land, Fort Bend: Numerous trees and powerlines down

Mission Bend, Fort Bend: trees down, carport collapsed

Richmond, Fort Bend: Quarter size hail

Sugar Land, Fort Bend: Est 60mph wind gust along FM 762 between Booth and Thompsons. Powerlines downed

Kendleton, Fort Bend: Car struck by lightning…severely damaged.

Pasadena, Harris: Flash flooding on Spencer HWY at Bayshore Dr.

Pasadena, Harris: Flash flooding on Strawberry Rd from Fairmont PKWY to Pasadena Blvd.

Hobby Airport, Harris: 2.61 inches of rainfall…brakes previous rainfall record for yesterday of 1.97 inches in 1983. NOTE: Hobby ASOS equipment appears to have been damaged yesterday by storms.

[wxman57]

Final total 1.34" in Westbury. Had some gusty winds with the storms. My hummingbird feeder post blew over. I could barely stick it in the ground earlier this week (in preparation for their Aug/Sep migration south). It's now firmly in the saturated ground.

Overnight runs of the GFS & Euro are in good agreement on the pattern change. Say goodbye to the big ridge over Texas/Louisiana and hello to the upper level low/trof by Sunday. More seasonal temps and daily rain chances can be expected. However, the Gulf will be open for business as far as the potential for hurricane development should any Caribbean disturbance reach the area or if squalls persist across the northern Gulf.

[Katdaddy]

Thunderstorms N of Houston metro moving slowly S at 15MPH:

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
706 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 704 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL SAN JACINTO COUNTY
AND ARE MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN CONROE...CLEVELAND...SHEPHERD...SPLENDORA...PATTON
VILLAGE...ROMAN FOREST...WOODBRANCH...CUT AND SHOOT...COLDSPRING...
PLUM GROVE...NORTH CLEVELAND...WOODLOCH...CHATEAU WOODS...EVERGREEN
AND TARKINGTON PRAIRIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

[Cromagnum]

Another evening with nothing. Everything to the north is fizzling out.

Friday's forecast looks hot and dry again, so I hope this pattern change brings widespread rain.

[mckinne63]

Nice pop up storm here in Stafford. Doesn't look like it will last, but rain is rain!

[wxman57]

Another 0.27" in Westbury this afternoon with that pop-up thunderstorm. That's 1.61" for the week/month.

[Paul Robison]

Folks, we're not out of the woods yet:


Grid operator issues power use alert

Posted on August 13, 2015 | By Jordan Blum

An alert calling for electricity conservation was issued Thursday to help protect the stressed Texas electric grid.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas is asking electric consumers to limit their electricity usage today during the peak hours of 3 p.m. to 7 p.m. The string of 100-degree-plus days led to record-setting power demand on three different days this month, most recently on Monday, according to ERCOT. Gov. Greg Abbott on Wednesday asked residents to conserve.

“Although we set new peak demand records without needing to issue a conservation alert during the past week, the high temperatures statewide continue to drive high levels of electricity use,” said Dan Woodfin, ERCOT director of System Operations, in the alert warning.

“Generation units on the system have been working hard to keep up with recent demands,” Woodfin added. “Some of them have experienced outages today, contributing to tighter conditions.”

In a call, ERCOT Chief Operating Officer Brad Jones said the grid is not yet operating in any emergency conditions, but that it is important for people to conserve as much as they can. With some power station outages, he said, the grid is in a tighter situation than usual. ERCOT is importing more electricity through interconnections, he said, but the grid also is exporting some power to Mexico.

“A large part of this demand is the customer growth we’ve seen over the past few years,” Jones said.

ERCOT said the grid’s operating reserves have fallen below the target threshold of 2,500 megawatts. As such, ERCOT operators began a progressive series of procedures to maintain system reliability.

“We are working to maintain overall reliability during this high-demand period,” Woodfin stated. “Voluntary conservation can help us reduce the potential for additional measures, such as rotating outages, to ensure reliability throughout the ERCOT grid.”

Electricity consumers are asked to set their thermostats a few degrees higher than usual and to rely more on fans if possible.

ERCOT is asking people to avoid using dishwashers, laundry equipment, hair dryers, coffee makers and other appliances. People should cook more with their microwaves and open their refrigerators and freezers as little as possible. ERCOT also asks residents to set their pool pumps to run in the early morning or late evening.

I wouldn't have expected them to do this, with today's pop-up thunderstorms and all. Don't s'pose anybody has an opinion?

[srainhoutx]

The pesky upper ridge continues to slide W with a Northerly flow aloft established across our Region. A stalled frontal boundary lies along the SE Texas Coast extending E across the near shore Northern and NE Gulf Coastal waters with a surface trough W of Tampa. The stalled frontal boundary may enhance shower and storm development later this afternoon continuing throughout the weekend into early next week. There are still some indications that an upper level feature around 500mb may attempt to meander W across Louisiana and possibly the Eastern half of Texas that could further enhance heat of the day thunderstorm chances. PW's are expected to increase to near 2 inches tomorrow into Monday, so the atmosphere should be able to produce some possible heavy rainfall amounts where they develop. We also need to monitor any thunderstorm complexes associated with the monsoon that develop daily across Eastern Arizona and New Mexico and drop S around the eastern flank of the upper ridge located over the Desert SW. It appears the days of 100F may well be over. The medium to longer range guidance are beginning to suggest several late summer cold fronts begin to sweep across NW Canada and the Canadian Prairies that bring the first hint of higher elevation snow across portions of the Canadian Rockies. The days are steadily getting shorter reminding us that Fall cannot be too far away and dreams of that first strong Fall cold front begin to dance in our heads.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Doing the Fall dance!

[GBinGrimes]

Ditto on the Fall Dance!

Can't wait for that first breeze of brisk air.

[ticka1]

Doing the FALL two-step

[Paul Robison]

The pesky upper ridge continues to slide W with a Northerly flow aloft established across our Region. A stalled frontal boundary lies along the SE Texas Coast extending E across the near shore Northern and NE Gulf Coastal waters with a surface trough W of Tampa. The stalled frontal boundary may enhance shower and storm development later this afternoon continuing throughout the weekend into early next week. There are still some indications that an upper level feature around 500mb may attempt to meander W across Louisiana and possibly the Eastern half of Texas that could further enhance heat of the day thunderstorm chances. PW's are expected to increase to near 2 inches tomorrow into Monday, so the atmosphere should be able to produce some possible heavy rainfall amounts where they develop. We also need to monitor any thunderstorm complexes associated with the monsoon that develop daily across Eastern Arizona and New Mexico and drop S around the eastern flank of the upper ridge located over the Desert SW. It appears the days of 100F may well be over. The medium to longer range guidance are beginning to suggest several late summer cold fronts begin to sweep across NW Canada and the Canadian Prairies that bring the first hint of higher elevation snow across portions of the Canadian Rockies. The days are steadily getting shorter reminding us that Fall cannot be too far away and dreams of that first strong Fall cold front begin to dance in our heads.

You mean the usual afternoon tropical downpours, right? No dangerous lightning or gusty "macho" winds, right?

[unome]

explosion/fire in Conroe showed up on satellite and radar

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/h ... -ir2f.html

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

[srainhoutx]

It's been at least a month and a half since we've seen this much rainfall potential in the 7 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. Indeed that pattern has changed. Moisture over the Gulf looks to slowly retrograde West into at least the Eastern half of Texas into mid next week as well as a shear axis meandering along the Northern Gulf Coast drifting toward us. By mid week eyes turn further N as a frontal boundary drops S across the Plains into Texas providing an additional focal point for shower and storm development. Lastly, a tropical disturbance offshore of Mexico may bring its mid/upper level moisture across Northern Mexico into Texas as that front nears our Region. The pesky upper ridge finally looks to be squashed and a strong sub tropical jet moves into Southern California. Fingers crossed we can finally break the 45+ day pattern that brought our very dry and recording breaking heat to bed once and for all.