JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[ticka1]

it is hot and humid out there!

[Katdaddy]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
347 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 346 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A WATERSPOUT MOVING
ACROSS THE MARSH NORTH OF JOHNSONS BAYOU OR 8 MILES EAST OF PORT
ARTHUR. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SABINE NATIONAL WILDLIFE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

[Cromagnum]

Bust? Ain't been doing anything but beating down fierce sun and humidity all weekend.

[Rip76]

Nice big tower just to the east of Houston.

[Cromagnum]

Wicked lightning storm to the north.

[Rip76]

Very.
Watching from my backyard.

Looks like the line started east of Houston and moved west.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
854 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

HARRIS TX-
854 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 852 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL IN THE ADVISORY AREA BY 10
PM.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HUMBLE...GREATER GREENSPOINT...ALDINE...SPRING...BUSH
INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...ATASCOCITA...WILLOWBROOK...HOOKS AIRPORT
AND LAKE HOUSTON.

[Katdaddy]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
943 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1245 AM CDT

* AT 941 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY
FALLEN OVER THE WARNING AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HUMBLE...ALDINE...GREATER GREENSPOINT...SPRING...BUSH
INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...EAST LITTLE YORK / HOMESTEAD...
ATASCOCITA...EAST HOUSTON AND LAKE HOUSTON.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

[Kludge]

Forecast bust for my location = 100%

I know, Steve, you'll have many valid and understandable reasons for their misstep... but I just feel that the latest crop of "forecasters" rely almost completely on models, which is unfortunate.

After today's fail, and with this new Interwebs thingy, I'm thinking that most folks will begin to go straight to model sites, and bypass NWS "expert" interpretations.

In a related story: the Texas A&M college of Meteorology was forecasted to have a 60% chance of rain today. I would love to see the correspondences between them and their League City alumni.

[srainhoutx]

Currently raining at my home in NW Harris County at this hour. Last night I woke up to a vivid light show and rolling thunder from the storms to my S along the I-10 Corridor. Regarding the yesterday afternoon and evening forecast...one of the older short range models did ok, the rest...not so good. One of the reasons I tend to look at satellite imagery is to verify what the various computer schemes suggest and how they compare with the ' real time' observations. Weather forecasting requires using all the tools in the toolbox...so to speak. Analysing the data, using past experience and then providing your best shot at giving a forecast based on data, past experience and what is developing upstream.

The early morning water vapor imagery suggests additional disturbances riding SE in the NW flow aloft. The front has stalled a bit N of I-10 and S of Austin. There is an upper low/trough to our SW near the Lower Rio Grande Valley pumping copious amounts of moisture across Mexico into the Desert SW where the monsoon is underway. Also there is a weakness between the upper ridge to our NW and the trough to our East over the Southern half of Texas. That weakness is evident at the 500mb/700mb level and probably will remain there until at least mid week. Scattered showers and storms look possible almost daily through the end of June. Some folks received plentiful rains last evening while others...not so much. If weather forecasting was an exact science, there would be no need for human interpretation and dissemination making everyone an expert and leading to a very boring life...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
459 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 AM CDT

* AT 458 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN WALLER COUNTIES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

[srainhoutx]

Flash Flood Warnings continue across Waller, Liberty and San Jacinto Counties. Montgomery and Harris Counties are under a Flood Advisory and Flash Flood Warnings may be required shortly with heavy training rainfall continuing.

[txflagwaver]

Nothing here yet...has stayed just out of our area. 3 baseball games starting at 11 so we will see...

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/28/15 1104Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1045Z HANNA
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LIX...LCH...HGX...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT. APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
.
EVENT...SATELLITE FEATURES FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SMALL MULTICELL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES HAVE
BEEN RATHER SLOW MOVING THIS MORNING WITH SOME TENDENCY FOR REGENERATION
AND BACKBUILDING WITHIN CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AS SHORTWAVE
TROF OVER THE TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
HIGHLY DIFFLUENT OVER THE REGION BETWEEN LIFTING SHORTWAVE TROF AND
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE W GULF WHICH WAS HELPING TO PROVIDE MODEST
LARGE SCALE FORCING. DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WERE RATHER WEAK WITH
FAVORED STORM MOTIONS TO E BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ON HGX VWP
THROUGH THE MID TROPOSPHERE WAS FAVORING PROPAGATION THAT WAS OFFSETTING
STORM MOTIONS WITH 20KTS OF INFLOW NOTED AT 925 AND 85H. MOISTURE WAS
ANOMALOUS AND FAVORING WARM RAIN PROCESSES WITH DEEP ABOVE 0C LAYER
AND LOW NORMALIZED CAPES. DO BELIEVE THAT UPSTREAM 925H LLJ AND GOES
INSTABILITY AXIS OVER S TX WAS FAVORABLY ORIENTED TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE REGENERATION OR EVEN BACKBUILDING OVER
PORTIONS OF SE TX. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT TERM
QUASI-STATIONARY SMALL SCALE CONVECTION COMPLEXES AND DOWNSTREAM TRAINING
INTO SW LA FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE LLJ BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND VEER
HELPING TO DECREASE HEAVY RAIN THREAT DURING THE 12-14Z TIME FRAME.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
701 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

HARRIS TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
701 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL HARRIS AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

AT 659 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN... WITH HARRIS COUNTY
FLOOD CONTROL GAGES AT CYPRESS CREEK AND INTERSTATE 45 REPORTING
1.64 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST HOUR AND AT CYPRESS CREEK AND
KUYKENDAHL REPORTING 1.52 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
TOMBALL...SPRING...THE WOODLANDS...GREATER GREENSPOINT...KINGWOOD...
OAK RIDGE NORTH...SHENANDOAH...ROMAN FOREST...PORTER HEIGHTS...
SPLASHTOWN...HOOKS AIRPORT...THE WOODLANDS PAVILLION...CHATEAU
WOODS...WILLOWBROOK...NORTHWESTERN BUSH INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...
LAKE HOUSTON...PORTER AND NEW CANEY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA.
THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
718 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

LIBERTY TX-HARRIS TX-CHAMBERS TX-
718 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 915 AM CDT

* AT 716 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NORTHEASTERN BAYTOWN...SOUTHERN LIBERTY...BEACH CITY...MONT
BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...OLD RIVER-WINFREE...COVE...WINNIE...STOWELL...
HANKAMER AND WALLISVILLE.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

[srainhoutx]

HGX believes the frontal boundary is sagging slowly S just N of I-10 and will likely make it near the I-10 Corridor in the next hour or so. That makes things a bit complicated as cloud tops continue to cool and lighting is increasing up here in NW Harris County. Heavy training rainfall with rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour are possible. Back building is noted via the radar and IR satellite imagery. Additional training storms look possible the next couple of hours.

[srainhoutx]

Rainfall greater than .5 inches the past 12 hours from HGX. This does not include the storms now occurring across the Northern Areas of Metro Houston at this time:

Code: Select all

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
721 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...RAINFALL REPORTS PAST 12 HOURS...

HERE ARE RAINFALL REPORTS OF 0NE-HALF INCH OR GREATER FOR THE PAST 
12 HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 

...BRAZORIA COUNTY...
6 SSE DANBURY                0.52 IN   0228 AM 06/28   29.15N/95.30W        

...CHAMBERS COUNTY...
1 WSW OLD RIVER-WINFREE      0.77 IN   0704 AM 06/28   29.87N/94.85W        

...FORT BEND COUNTY...
2 S KATY                     3.30 IN   0712 AM 06/28   29.76N/95.83W        
BUFFALO BAYOU NEAR KATY      1.74 IN   0630 AM 06/28   29.74N/95.81W        
5 SSE KATY                   1.17 IN   0714 AM 06/28   29.73N/95.79W        
3 SE KATY                    1.11 IN   0711 AM 06/28   29.76N/95.78W        
6 SSE KATY                   0.82 IN   0703 AM 06/28   29.72N/95.79W        
4 ENE FULSHEAR               0.46 IN   0704 AM 06/28   29.71N/95.82W        

...GALVESTON COUNTY...
GIWW @ STATE HIGHWAY 124 BRI 1.57 IN   0652 AM 06/28   29.60N/94.39W        

...GRIMES COUNTY...
8 SE NAVASOTA                2.43 IN   0708 AM 06/28   30.29N/96.00W        

...HARRIS COUNTY...
6 W SPRING                   4.08 IN   0712 AM 06/28   30.05N/95.49W        
7 WSW SPRING                 3.59 IN   0709 AM 06/28   30.01N/95.50W        
1 WNW SPRING                 2.38 IN   0712 AM 06/28   30.07N/95.41W        
3 W SPRING                   2.27 IN   0716 AM 06/28   30.05N/95.44W        
IH 45 W ROAD HOV ENTERANCE   2.20 IN   0143 AM 06/28   29.92N/95.41W        
HUMBLE                       2.15 IN   0707 AM 06/28   30.00N/95.26W        
4 WSW JERSEY VILLAGE         2.13 IN   0707 AM 06/28   29.86N/95.63W        
6 WSW JERSEY VILLAGE         2.08 IN   0713 AM 06/28   29.87N/95.67W        
2 SW THE WOODLANDS           1.92 IN   0713 AM 06/28   30.13N/95.52W        
7 N JERSEY VILLAGE           1.83 IN   0709 AM 06/28   29.99N/95.59W        
7 WSW JERSEY VILLAGE         1.69 IN   0701 AM 06/28   29.84N/95.68W        
CYPRESS CREEK NEAR WESTFIELD 1.68 IN   0442 AM 06/28   30.04N/95.43W        
9 WNW JERSEY VILLAGE         1.67 IN   0712 AM 06/28   29.95N/95.71W        
9 WNW JERSEY VILLAGE         1.59 IN   0715 AM 06/28   29.95N/95.71W        
4 WSW THE WOODLANDS          1.59 IN   0711 AM 06/28   30.13N/95.55W        
2 NNW WALLER                 1.53 IN   0624 AM 06/28   30.09N/95.93W        
7 NNW JERSEY VILLAGE         1.21 IN   0715 AM 06/28   29.98N/95.62W        
9 SW TOMBALL                 1.20 IN   0707 AM 06/28   29.98N/95.71W        
5 S TOMBALL                  1.12 IN   0707 AM 06/28   30.02N/95.61W        
3 E JERSEY VILLAGE           0.99 IN   0712 AM 06/28   29.89N/95.51W        
5 NW SHELDON                 0.81 IN   0710 AM 06/28   29.93N/95.19W        
5 WNW JERSEY VILLAGE         0.75 IN   0708 AM 06/28   29.91N/95.66W        
7 S TOMBALL                  0.73 IN   0704 AM 06/28   29.99N/95.64W        
1 N WALLER                   0.61 IN   0710 AM 06/28   30.08N/95.92W        
4 WNW JERSEY VILLAGE         0.59 IN   0715 AM 06/28   29.91N/95.63W        
CYPRESS CREEK @ INVERNESS FO 0.51 IN   0443 AM 06/28   30.04N/95.41W        
HILSHIRE VILLAGE             0.50 IN   0705 AM 06/28   29.80N/95.49W        

...LIBERTY COUNTY...
3 NE SPLENDORA               3.47 IN   0715 AM 06/28   30.27N/95.13W        
EF SAN JACINTO RIVER         1.42 IN   0645 AM 06/28   30.34N/95.10W        
4 NNW DAYTON                 0.67 IN   0707 AM 06/28   30.11N/94.93W        

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
4 N TOMBALL                  2.82 IN   0713 AM 06/28   30.16N/95.63W        
3 NW TOMBALL                 2.68 IN   0716 AM 06/28   30.13N/95.65W        
2 NE SPRING                  2.39 IN   0701 AM 06/28   30.09N/95.36W        
3 E SPRING                   2.27 IN   0715 AM 06/28   30.07N/95.33W        
OAK RIDGE NORTH              1.29 IN   0711 AM 06/28   30.17N/95.44W        
5 ENE MONTGOMERY             1.12 IN   0703 AM 06/28   30.42N/95.61W        
1 WNW THE WOODLANDS          1.03 IN   0713 AM 06/28   30.17N/95.51W        
SPRING                       1.02 IN   0700 AM 06/28   30.13N/95.48W        
4 W WILLIS                   1.00 IN   0708 AM 06/28   30.42N/95.55W        
PANTHER BRANCH@GOSLING RD    0.99 IN   0700 AM 06/28   30.19N/95.48W        
2 WNW THE WOODLANDS          0.93 IN   0710 AM 06/28   30.18N/95.53W        
4 NNW SHENANDOAH             0.90 IN   0703 AM 06/28   30.24N/95.48W        
WILLIS                       0.87 IN   0223 AM 06/28   30.42N/95.49W        
FLAMINGO LAKE                0.80 IN   0438 AM 06/28   30.45N/95.70W        
4 ENE MONTGOMERY             0.79 IN   0712 AM 06/28   30.42N/95.63W        
5 N CUT AND SHOOT            0.74 IN   0713 AM 06/28   30.42N/95.34W        
2 ENE MONTGOMERY             0.73 IN   0715 AM 06/28   30.41N/95.66W        
4 NW THE WOODLANDS           0.72 IN   0707 AM 06/28   30.21N/95.54W        
1 NW CONROE                  0.61 IN   0712 AM 06/28   30.34N/95.49W        
LAKE CONROE NR CONROE        0.60 IN   0431 AM 06/28   30.36N/95.56W        
WF SAN JACINTO               0.56 IN   0630 AM 06/28   30.24N/95.46W        
NEW WAVERLY 4 S              0.52 IN   0347 AM 06/28   30.49N/95.51W        
3 ENE PINEHURST              0.51 IN   0711 AM 06/28   30.22N/95.66W        

...SAN JACINTO COUNTY...
4 N COLDSPRING               1.19 IN   0713 AM 06/28   30.66N/95.12W        
5 SSE COLDSPRING             0.88 IN   0702 AM 06/28   30.52N/95.09W        
4 NNW COLDSPRING             0.77 IN   0707 AM 06/28   30.65N/95.15W        

...WALLER COUNTY...
6 SSW TODD MISSION           3.99 IN   0703 AM 06/28   30.17N/95.86W        
6 W STAGECOACH               1.30 IN   0714 AM 06/28   30.13N/95.81W        

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
6 WSW NAVASOTA               1.45 IN   0712 AM 06/28   30.34N/96.18W        
BRAZOS RIVER AT HEMPSTEAD    1.05 IN   0700 AM 06/28   30.13N/96.19W        

OBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYING
EQUIPMENT AND EXPOSURE. NOT ALL DATA LISTED ARE CONSIDERED OFFICIAL.

$$

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
740 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT

* AT 735 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE FALLEN WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EAST OF HIGHWAY 6. FLASH
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...PINEHURST...WALLER...MAGNOLIA...PINE
ISLAND AND TODD MISSION.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Slow moving frontal boundary resulting in yet another heavy rainfall event over SE TX

Overnight thunderstorms have been nearly continuous along a stalling frontal boundary north of I-10. Rainfall amounts have averaged 3-5 inches of rainfall over northern Waller County and portions of NC Harris County. Activity is currently decreasing in coverage and intensity for the first time in many hours as the air mass has finally been worked over some.

Numerous boundaries remain in place and with a few hours of heating expect storms to develop once again with the focus being along and south of I-10 where the seabreeze and outflows will collide this afternoon. Slow storm motions will result in very heavy rainfall as has been seen overnight. Air mass is very moist with PWS +2.0 inches and this when combined with the slow storm motions is resulting in short term rainfall rates of 1-2 inches in 30 minutes or less.

Hard to pinpoint the greatest threat area for later today, but think it will be south of I-10 where the air mass remains most unstable, but cannot rule out any areas given how storms have shed so many boundaries overnight. I can count at least 6 boundaries on the radar just right now. There also appears to be a weak short wave approaching in the NW flow aloft and this could help to enhance storms this afternoon into the evening. Given now wet grounds, additional heavy rainfall between I-10 and HWY 105 will result in run-off and flooding.

Front remains ill defined and stalled over the region into Tuesday with thunderstorms likely to continue especially during the afternoon hours.

Upper highs to the west and east remain in place through the week with a weakness channel over TX allowing at least daily seabreeze storms once the frontal boundary washes out. Rain chances look lowest Thursday and Friday and then begin to increase again toward the holiday weekend.

Overnight Rainfall: