JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
451 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN COMAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
BEXAR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 745 AM CDT

* AT 446 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN BEXAR COUNTY MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN COMAL COUNTY. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN
ESTIMATED ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST BEXAR COUNTY. AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN BEXAR
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN COMAL COUNTY.

* THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING OF LOW
WATER CROSSINGS...INCLUDING THOSE ALONG SALADO CREEK. LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT REPORTED WATER RESCUES TAKING PLACE AT VILLAGE DRIVE
AND NORTHEAST LOOP 410 IN SAN ANTONIO. FLASH FLOODING IS
OCCURRING. FLASH FLOODING WILL BEGIN SHORTLY IN SOUTHERN COMAL
COUNTY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...UNIVERSAL CITY...SCHERTZ...LIVE
OAK...LEON VALLEY...KIRBY...HELOTES...ALAMO HEIGHTS...FAIR OAKS
RANCH...SELMA...WINDCREST...CANYON LAKE...TERRELL HILLS...
BULVERDE...GARDEN RIDGE...HOLLYWOOD PARK...SHAVANO PARK...OLMOS
PARK AND CHINA GROVE.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
635 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN MEDINA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN KENDALL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
BANDERA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN KERR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 930 AM CDT

* AT 633 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. AND ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN
SOME AREAS. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MEDINA...KERRVILLE...HONDO...COMFORT...BANDERA...TARPLEY...PIPE
CREEK...LAKEHILLS...CENTER POINT...BANDERA FALLS AND CAMP VERDE.

[srainhoutx]

Getting a bit active across the I-35 Corridor, Edwards Plateau and the Balcones Escarpment this morning...

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
721 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

HAYS TX-TRAVIS TX-
721 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HAYS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 915 AM CDT

* AT 720 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...TANGLEWOOD
FOREST...KYLE...BUDA...BEE CAVE...WEST LAKE HILLS...ROLLINGWOOD...
UHLAND...MUSTANG RIDGE...NIEDERWALD...BEAR CREEK...BARTON CREEK...
SHADY HOLLOW...ONION CREEK...MANSFIELD DAM...SUNSET VALLEY...
MOUNTAIN CITY AND SAN LEANNA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
751 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

UVALDE TX-
751 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RISES FOR...
UVALDE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 945 AM CDT

* AT 750 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
UVALDE...SABINAL...BLEWETT...LAGUNA...CONCAN...KNIPPA...GARNER
STATE PARK...MONTELL...REAGAN WELLS...CLINE AND UVALDE ESTATES.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/19/15 1311Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13/15 1300Z KUSSELSON
.
LOCATION...CENTRAL TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT. APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
.
EVENT...THOUGH CONVECTION GENERALLY MOVING...COULD HOLD TOGETHER A
LITTLE LONGER AND WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE GETTING INTO AN AREA OF LOWER
FF GUIDANCE VALUES...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...PESKY BOUNDARY WHERE VERY HIGH PRECIP
WATER MOISTURE OF 2.1"-2.35" VALUES AS PER LATEST GPS SITES IN CENTRAL
TEXAS. WITH DRIER AIR/LOWER PWATS NORTH...GRADIENT TIGHTEN A BIT ALONG
WITH INSTABILITY AS PER LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PRODUCTS THAT CAN ALSO
HELP THE CONVECTION LAST A BIT LONGER AS IT DRIFTS NORTH. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO, BUT A DEFINITE
CONNECTION TO TROPICS AND WEAK JET OF 40KTS SATELLITE WINDS OVER AREA
HELPING ALONG WITH SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IN HIGH LEVEL FLOW MOVING THROUGH.
EACH INDIVIDUAL FORCING MECHANISMS WOULD PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION, BUT ALL TOGETHER CAN HELP LET THE CONVECTION
LAST LONGER THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT AS IT PENETRATE LOWER MOISTURE NORTH.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1300-1600Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...A NUMBER OF FACTORS POINTING TO THIS CONVECVTION
LAST LONGER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT...ONE IS THE MOISTURE AND
GRADIENT OF MOISTURE IT IS ENTERING...SECOND THE NUMBER OF FORCING
MECHANISMS BOTH AS DEPICTED ON SATELLITE INSTABILITY PRODUCTS AND GOES
WATER VAPOR WITH JET AND SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IN AN AREA BETWEEN THE SYSTEM
OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH BILL AND NM TROUGH AND SWLY FLOW FROM MEXICO INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS...A VIRTUAL NO-MAN'S LAND WHERE CONVECTION CAN LINGER A BIT
LONGER THAN NORMAL. MOST CONCERNED EDWARDS/KINNEY TO KERR/BANDERA AND
MAY EXTEND EAST TO TRAVIS COUNTY WITH HRLY RATES OF 1-1.5" AND ISOLATED
UP TO 2" OR SO.

[srainhoutx]

From Jeff regarding the rainfall totals across the Region since January 1st:

Texas has had just about everything thrown at it over the last few months…rainfall wise… and much like the staggering lack of rain in 2011, 2015 is already going down as one of the wettest years ever on record…no surprise we have been dealing with flooding and a lot of it.

The most impressive statistic is for the City of Baytown. Baytown has recorded 54.15 inches of rain to date this year which is an impressive +31.77 inches above normal. The entire annual rainfall for Baytown is 59.92 inches. Only 5.77 inches to reach their yearly average rainfall and it is only June 18th.

The City of Brenham have surpassed their annual average rainfall of 45.14 inches. As of June 18th, Brenham has recorded 45.77 inches of rainfall.

The City of Crockett has recorded 40.30 inches of rainfall through today. The previous January 1-June 18th rainfall recorded was 35.36 inches in 1935

The City of Sugar Land has recorded 41.96 inches of rainfall in 2015 which is +21.21 inches above normal. 20.40 inches fell in the month of May alone (+15.77 above normal for May) or 49% of the 41.96 inches fell in May. The 8.04 inches on May 25th was 39% of the May monthly total and 19% of the 2015 total. The 4 day combined rainfall from May 24-27 was 11.45 inches or 27% of the 2015 total in only 4 days. The 20-day period from the 11-30 of May recorded a staggering 20.32 inches of rain or 48% of the 2015 total. Of the 20 days rain fell on each day except 4.

January 1-June 18th Rainfall (Normal yearly rainfall):

BUSH IAH: 34.62 (49.77)
Hobby: 38.48 (54.65)
College Station: 31.09 (40.06)
Baytown: 54.15 (59.92)
Bellville: 37.83 (41.75)
Brenham: 45.77 (45.14)
Crockett: 40.30 (45.18)
Westbury: 39.49 (51.82)
Huntsville: 41.48 (49.08)
NWS League City: 42.57 (56.81)
Richmond: 38.47 (49.08)
Washington State Park: 41.05 (41.68)

BUSH IAH is currently running 12.71 inches above normal for 2015
Houston Hobby is currently running 15.93 inches above normal for 2015

The City of Conroe has recorded 29.76 inches of rainfall in 2015 which is 8.42 inches above normal.

[texoz]

Those rainfall totals are stunning, and there are many more eye-popping numbers across the state and up into OK. I've been following the weather in Texas since the 70s and this is easily one of the wettest 2-month periods I've ever seen.

Speaking of more rain, what are the dynamics unfolding around San Antonio & Austin? We're getting more rain again here in Austin, and the radar seems to indicate a growing area of rain with some slight rotation (a MCS?) just north of Uvalde?

[srainhoutx]

Those rainfall totals are stunning, and there are many more eye-popping numbers across the state and up into OK. I've been following the weather in Texas since the 70s and this is easily one of the wettest 2-month periods I've ever seen.

Speaking of more rain, what are the dynamics unfolding around San Antonio & Austin? We're getting more rain again here in Austin, and the radar seems to indicate a growing area of rain with some slight rotation (a MCS?) just north of Uvalde?

There is a shortwave trough across Texas and believe it or not, Carlos remnants from the Eastern Pacific has been entrained into this mess across S Central Texas.

[texoz]

Dang, more rain? Lake Buchanan still needs it, so I guess if it heads due north from SA we could most definitely put a nail in the coffin of the drought for C. Texas.

[srainhoutx]

Dang, more rain? Lake Buchanan still needs it, so I guess if it heads due north from SA we could most definitely put a nail in the coffin of the drought for C. Texas.

Latest HRRR seems to shift the focus back toward Mexico and the Rio Grande during the day. That said the HRRR (12Z) breaks out scattered storms across SE/S Central Texas (closer to Victoria and Wharton Jackson Counties and Austin, Waller, Montgomery, NW Harris Counties) across areas hard hit by Bill's rainfall this afternoon into the evening hours. This includes the Coastal tier of Counties as well.

[BlueJay]

Dang, more rain? Lake Buchanan still needs it, so I guess if it heads due north from SA we could most definitely put a nail in the coffin of the drought for C. Texas.

That's a good thing!

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
949 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

...The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a flood warning
for the following rivers...

West Fork San Jacinto Near Porter affecting the following counties in Texas...
Harris...Montgomery


For West Fork San Jacinto River at Porter, Moderate flooding is forecast.

Bands of rain associated with Tropical Storm Bill has produced 2 to 4
inches of rain with isolated areas of 5 to 6 inches over the West Fork of the
San Jacinto River basin. As this rain fell on already saturated ground runoff
from this rainfall is expected to produce minor to moderate flooding near
Porter.

[jasons2k]

This was a nice tidbit from the NWS's overnight discussion:

BE PREPARED FOR A STRING OF SOME UNCOMFORTABLE AFTERNOONS (IE THE FAMOUS DOG BREATH CONDITIONS)

[srainhoutx]

HGX states this storm is not moving...

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
247 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

BRAZORIA TX-GALVESTON TX-
247 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EAST CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 245 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
NEARLY STATIONARY THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN SANTA FE AND LIVERPOOL.
THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. RADAR HAS
ESTIMATED THAT 1.50 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN WITH THESE
STORMS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ALVIN...SANTA FE...HILLCREST...LIVERPOOL AND CHOCOLATE BAYOU.

[kayci]

Right about that Srain.... it's not moving. Once again, our pond behind the office is overflowed *ugh*. Just when I thought we might dry out a bit, NOT

[nuby3]

pouring again in grimes county! amazing!

[BlueJay]

Right about that Srain.... it's not moving. Once again, our pond behind the office is overflowed *ugh*. Just when I thought we might dry out a bit, NOT

Remember the drought of 2011.

Having rain is better, I think.

[biffb816]

Maybe I've just never noticed it before with other storm, but TS Bill still has some pretty good rotation way up there in the middle of the country. Almost looks better organized than it did in the Gulf.

[TexasBreeze]

That is true about Bill it looks much better than it did over water and has more moisture around it too.

[srainhoutx]

The weekend forecast continues to advertise a weakness across Texas as we remain on the Western periphery of a SE Ridge and an inverted trough extending from NE Mexico into the Edwards Plateau. PW''s remain rather high as additional moisture from remnants of Carlos over Mexico stream into S Central Texas. Expected scattered heat of the day thunderstorm activity across the Lower Rio Grande Valley, the Hill Country and SE Texas to continue throughout the weekend as the inverted trough gradually slips further W.

Isolated to scattered daytime showers and storms look to continue early next week with a bit less areal coverage. By mid week expect rain chances to slowly increase daily as a Western upper ridge develops over Nevada and Utah and the SW monsoon season begins to organize. To the East as pesky Bill exits the Mid Atlantic, a deepening trough develops putting our Region in a NW flow aloft. Monsoonal moisture to our West and increasing low level moisture with an onshore flow off the Western Gulf sets the stage for increasing showers and storms by next weekend. The extended range guidance suggests deep tropical moisture increasing from the Western Caribbean into the Western Gulf as a Eastward progressing Consecutively Coupled Kelvin Wave nears the Eastern Pacific with a favorable MJO pulse of rising air allowing tropical thunderstorms to develop off the Pacific Coast of Mexico and the continuation of the monsoon season across Arizona and New Mexico by the end of June into early July. Have a great weekend and drink plenty of water if outdoors. The heat index may near 100F with all the moisture from saturated soils and partly cloudy skies between the daily scattered thunderstorm activity.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL022015
400 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

...TENACIOUS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
KENTUCKY...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.8N 87.1W
ABOUT 25 MILES...72 KM...SE OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA.
ABOUT 70 MILES...56 KM...NW OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...20 MPH...30 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS A SECTION OF
SOUTHERN INDIANA. FLASH FLOOD AND FLOOD WATCHES EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST. AFTER SPENDING MORE
THAN THREE DAYS OVER LAND...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AS IT TRACKS WELL
INLAND OVER SATURATED GROUNDS RESULTING FROM ANTECEDENT HEAVY
RAINS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DECENT CONVECTION
AROUND THE CENTER OF BILL ALONG WITH A PROMINENT UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN TO THE NORTH.  RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD AXIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AHEAD
OF THE CIRCULATION. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH OF BILL...A
DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS SHIELD
OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN GENERALLY PIVOTING OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
BECOME STEADY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE THIS
PAST AFTERNOON. RECENT PEAK WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 25 TO 30
MPH RANGE...GENERALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE
CIRCULATION. BILL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BEFORE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. 
THEREAFTER...BILL COULD BRIEFLY RESTRENGTHEN WHEN IT MOVES DOWN
THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AS IT GRADUALLY BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 20 MPH...30 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN UP ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA WHILE 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED FARTHER EAST INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION.  THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN REGIONS WHICH ARE ALREADY SATURATED
FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 4 AM CDT

...ARKANSAS...
ROGERS 2.1 SE                        4.42                     
BENTONVILLE                          4.27                     
FAYETTEVILLE/SPRINGDALE              4.03                     
HARRISON/BOONE CO. ARPT              3.85                     
DELIGHT 2.2 WNW                      3.74                     
SPRINGDALE 6.4 WSW                   3.31                     
SILOAM SPRINGS/SMITH FIELD           3.24                     
TEXARKANA RGNL ARPT                  2.67                     
EUREKA SPRINGS 4.0 WNW               2.62                     
SPRINGFIELD/CAPITAL ARPT             2.49                     

...ILLINOIS...
COOKS MILL                           5.14                     
SCOTT AFB/BELLEVILLE                 5.01                     
SULLIVAN 3 S                         4.89                     
CARBONDALE/MURPHYSBORO               4.83                     
FLORA                                4.70                     
LAWRENCEVILLE-VINCENNES INTL AP      4.63                     
ALLENVILLE 1 S                       4.50                     
ELBURN                               4.45                     
MATTOON/CHARLESTON                   4.23                     
SOUTH CAROL STREAM                   4.11                     
BATAVIA                              3.87                     
CAHOKIA/ST. LOUIS                    3.58                     
ROCHELLE                             3.43                     
MANHATTAN 5 SSE                      3.26                     
OAK PARK 1 SE                        3.07                     
DIXON 2 SW                           2.64                     
NEWTON                               2.58                     
TUSCOLA                              2.29                     
NORTH AURORA 2 E                     2.23                     
STE. MARIE                           2.11                     

...INDIANA...
GRISSOM AFB/PERU                     6.72                     
EVANSVILLE RGNL ARPT                 5.27                     
SANDBORN                             4.96                     
BLOOMINGTON/MONROE CO. ARPT          4.87                     
BICKNELL                             4.67                     
FORT WAYNE/BAER FIELD                4.53                     
MOROCCO                              3.70                     
MUNCIE/JOHNSON FIELD                 3.16                     
NEW ROSS 2 E                         2.87                     
INDIANAPOLIS INTL ARPT               2.57                     
ANDERSON 5 NW                        2.30                     
TERRE HAUTE/HULMAN RGNL ARPT         2.12                     
CHESTERTON                           1.70                     

...KANSAS...
COFFEYVILLE MUNI ARPT                3.64                     
OLATHE/JOHNSON                       1.79                     
COLLYER 2.1 SE                       1.45                     

...KENTUCKY...
HENDERSON CITY                       3.54                     
FRANKFORT/CAPITAL CITY ARPT          2.12                     
JACKSON/J. CARROLL                   1.96                     
PADUCAH/BARKLEY                      1.90                     
LEXINGTON/BLUE GRASS FIELD           1.14                     

...LOUISIANA...
SHREVEPORT RGNL ARPT                 4.79                     
BOSSIER CITY 6.7 NNW                 3.84                     
SHREVEPORT 5.3 SSE                   2.42                     
PLAIN DEALING 3.0 ESE                2.13                     
RUSTON 1.6 NW                        1.85                     

...MISSOURI...
FORDLAND 4 WNW                       8.25                     
BATTLEFIELD                          7.93                     
OZARK 3 N                            7.54                     
SPOKANE 3 SE                         7.00                     
HARTVILLE 1 E                        6.90                     
HIGHLANDVILLE                        6.75                     
SEYMOUR                              6.20                     
SPRINGFIELD 7 E                      6.00                     
MARSHFIELD 3.6 S                     5.48                     
HURLEY 8 ENE                         5.00                     
EXETER                               5.00                     
COMPETITION                          5.00                     
ROGERSVILLE                          4.80                     
NIXA 2.7 SSW                         4.72                     
LINDEN 2 NE                          4.60                     
NIANGUA                              4.37                     
FORNEY AAF/FORT LEONARDWOOD          4.24                     
SOUTH SPRINGFIELD                    3.10                     
COLUMBIA RGNL ARPT                   2.94                     
JOPLIN RGNL ARPT                     2.60                     
JEFFERSON CITY ARPT                  2.27                     

...OHIO...
LIMA/ALLEN CO. APRT                  5.11                     
AKRON-CANTON REGIONAL ARPT           3.51                     
WILMINGTON/CINCINNATI WFO            3.46                     
DAYTON/JAMES M COX AIRPORT           3.01                     
CINCINNATI (ASOS)                    2.90                     

...OKLAHOMA...
HEALDTON 3 E                        12.53                     
NEWPORT                             11.52                     
BURNEYVILLE                         10.09                     
SULPHUR 2.5 WSW                      8.63                     
RINGLING                             8.27                     
PAULS VALLEY MUNI APRT               7.35                     
SULPHUR                              7.09                     
MACOMB 5.2 ESE                       5.82                     
MARIETTA 2.8 SW                      5.57                     
ADA 0.3 NNW                          5.45                     
WEWOKA 7.4 NNW                       5.30                     
NORMAN 3.4 SE                        3.61                     
OKLAHOMA CITY 11.5 S                 2.64                     
MUSKOGEE/DAVIS FIELD AIRPORT         2.55                     
BARTLESVILLE MUNI ARPT               1.51                     

...TEXAS...
MONTAGUE                            12.50                     
GANADO 1.5 W                        11.77                     
KIRBYVILLE 1.5 SE                    9.51                     
SEALY 0.3 WNW                        9.17                     
ALICE INTL ARPT                      9.03                     
EL CAMPO 0.5 ENE                     8.57                     
VICTORIA 9 ESE                       7.73                     
ROCKPORT 1.3 WSW                     7.51                     
MANOR 4.7 WSW                        7.30                     
WF SAN JACINTO                       7.06                     
LUFKIN/ANGELINA CO ARPT              6.98                     
NAVASOTA 8 SE                        6.73                     
FLOUR BLUFF 7 SW                     6.59                     
ARANSAS PASS 1 SSE                   6.46                     
SAN FELIPE 1.0 WNW                   6.15                     
CORPUS CHRISTI                       6.14                     
AUSTIN 4.2 ESE                       5.80                     
SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT                2.91                     
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL             2.51                     
FORT WORTH NAS                       2.34                     


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER RUBIN-OSTER

FORECAST POSITIONS
------------------
INITIAL 20/0900Z 37.8N 87.1W
12HR VT 20/1800Z 38.5N 84.5W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HR VT 21/0600Z 39.0N 78.3W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 21/1800Z 40.1N 73.5W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 22/0600Z 42.0N 66.9W...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 23/0600Z 44.8N 57.9W...EXTRATROPICAL