JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[unome]

Bill just stuck his proboscis into that blob in the sw gulf & sucked it's moisture in, right out of a Stephen King novella

[srainhoutx]

06162015 UPDATE 1442Z recon_AF308-0402A-BILL.png

[tireman4]

Update from Mr. And Mrs. Wxman 57:

Just boarded my plane. Only a 22 hour delay. Hope to shoot the gap into IAH

[ticka1]

jeff was on kprc the other station in houston...sorry khou flipping channels..to see

[ticka1]

Bill just stuck his proboscis into that blob in the sw gulf & sucked it's moisture in, right out of a Stephen King novella

huh??? lol

[poobear55]

The blob in the SW Gulf is more impressive than Bill!

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

Tropical Storm Bill is nearing the central Texas coast just south of
Port O'Connor, and the cyclone should move inland shortly. Although
the satellite presentation isn't terribly impressive, NOAA Doppler
radar data and SFMR, flight-level, and dropsonde wind reports from
an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft support an intensity of
50 kt. After Bill makes landfall, steady weakening will begin as
the cyclone moves farther inland over Texas, although the GFS
suggests that baroclinic forcing will help maintain the
post-tropical remnants as a distinct entity for a few days.

The initial motion estimate is 305/09 kt. Bill is expected to move
around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high
located over the southeastern U.S. during the next day or two. By
48 hours, the cyclone is forecast to get caught up in the
mid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a turn and acceleration to the
northeastward to east-northeast. The global and regional models are
in good agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast is
very similar to the previous advisory track and a consensus of the
GFS and ECMWF models.

Although the storm's strongest winds are located very close to the
center, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are occurring
well away from the center. The main hazard from Bill is expected to
be heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern Texas and
eastern Oklahoma over the next day or two. Please see products from
your local National Weather Service office for more information on
the flood threat.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 28.2N 96.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 29.7N 97.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 31.6N 97.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/0000Z 33.4N 97.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 18/1200Z 34.9N 96.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 19/1200Z 36.8N 92.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 20/1200Z 39.3N 87.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[srainhoutx]

06162015 1452Z recon_AF308-0402A-BILL.png

[Baseballdude2915]

The blob in the SW Gulf is more impressive than Bill!

It's lighting up the water vapor loop too.
Have to see if the convection continues to build on the south side of Bill.
That would not be good as all that convection will wrap up on "the dirty side" (us) as it moves inland.

[jabcwb2]

Am I seeing a center of circulation in the purple area?????

[srainhoutx]

Am I seeing a center of circulation in the purple area?????

Very near the Coast at Matagorda Bay is the center.

[srainhoutx]

06162015 1512Z recon_AF308-0402A-BILL.png

[srainhoutx]

[Texashawk]

Pressure keeps dropping. Good thing this sucker is making landfall soon!

[srainhoutx]

Hopefully RECON can catch one more center pass before Bill moves inland.

06162015 1522Z recon_AF308-0402A-BILL.png

[davidiowx]

Looking more like we will get the heavy rains they were forecasting

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... =M&ps=area

Click loop all

[srainhoutx]

06162015 1532Z recon_AF308-0402A-BILL.png

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Bill impacting the middle and upper TX coasts with strong winds, high tides, and heavy rainfall. Recon has just reported the pressure is now down to 997mb as the system continues to intensify.

Center of Bill has drifted toward the west and remains offshore per both Houston and Corpus radars currently 10-20 miles south of Seadrift. Tropical storm force winds are in progress over much of Matagorda Bay extending up the coast to Galveston Bay (mainly in gusts in this area).

Port O Connor just reported 50mph at 1000am

Oil Platform off Matagorda Island has gusted to 66mph.

Core of heavy rainfall extends from eastern Matagorda County into central Jackson County associated with the northern semi-circle of the tight circulation field. Feeder bands continue to lift northward east of this across the rest of SE TX. Short range guidance continues to progress the system inland near/just west of Matagorda Bay with bands of heavy rainfall developing and spreading inland over SE TX. PWS have surged to an extremely high 2.5-2.6 inches across the region and rainfall amounts out over the Gulf waters have exceeded 5-6 inches. Expect rainfall totals to gradually pile up across SE TX today.

Tides are elevated and will remain elevated today with strong onshore winds. Tides continue to run over 4.0 ft in Galveston Bay, 3.0-3.5ft along the west side of Matagorda Bay, and 3.0-3.5 ft along the Gulf beaches. Coastal flooding has been reported and is continuing in some locations.

[ticka1]

is it a wobble or truebturn south away from houston??

be this affects the moisture and pull away from houston area?

[seanatsk]

Looking more like we will get the heavy rains they were forecasting

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... =M&ps=area

Click loop all

That's not very comforting! We closed work today and it looks like we should've just closed early and think about a late start tomorrow.