JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[jabcwb2]

At work in the Galleria area. Easy commute, light rain.

[srainhoutx]

06162015 UPDATE 1342Z recon_AF308-0402A-BILL.png

[nuby3]

the main action will likely be this evening and tonight i'd imagine

[Texashawk]

Any chance it keeps going west and moves closer to Corpus?

[srainhoutx]

Any chance it keeps going west and moves closer to Corpus?

Should wobble back to the NW. There is a trough axis across Central Texas and the upper level Westerly wind flow should pick it up and lift off to the NE.

[GBinGrimes]

Nice wobble to the SW for Bill. I recall Carla did this as well back in 1961 near Matagorda Bay.

06162015 1322Z recon_AF308-0402A-BILL.png

I'll admit I know nothing about forecasting weather or reading maps or graphs or anything of the sort. But, in looking at the visible imagery and loop imagery in regards to the wobble, it almost appears that a different center of circulation is trying to form to the west of Corpus Christi even as the "eye" is nearing the coast. There is so much deep convection to the south of this system that is pulling in and appearing to try to wrap further out in the Gulf.

[srainhoutx]

06162015 1352Z recon_AF308-0402A-BILL.png

[srainhoutx]

06162015 1402Z recon_AF308-0402A-BILL.png

[nuby3]

looks like the moisture from the pacific is working into it as well. a lot of the people I know are currently making fun of the storm on facebook. really worries me

[Ounce]

Here in Corpus, the clouds are low, no rain, and a NNW wind around 10-15. The local TV weatherman, a low-keyed person, said 2-3 inches would cause some flooding down here. The beach is already holding water from the active surf. The forecast for Corpus is for afternoon rain, but not too windy at all.

Alice ISD cancelled classes.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
912 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

HARRIS TX-
912 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 910 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. ONE TO ALMOST TWO INCHES OF
RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AS
TROPICAL STORM BILL APPROACHES LAND IS EXPECTED... AND WILL CAUSE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN PASADENA...NORTHERN PEARLAND...SOUTH HOUSTON...
BELLAIRE...HUMBLE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...GALENA PARK...JACINTO
CITY...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT
VILLAGE...ASTRODOME AREA...SPRING VALLEY...GREATER FIFTH WARD...
NEARTOWN / MONTROSE...SECOND WARD...GREATER HOBBY AREA...NEAR
NORTHSIDE HOUSTON...GREENWAY / UPPER KIRBY AREA AND UNIVERSITY
PLACE.

[srainhoutx]

06162015 1412Z recon_AF308-0402A-BILL.png

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Enhancement of feeder bands likely over next few hours in green shaded area below.

This will increase the flooding rainfall potential as coastal convergence increases to the ENE/NE of the center landfall of Bill over Matagorda Bay.

Hourly rainfall rates will be increasing.

[poobear55]

I am curious about the blowup south of the storm. it looks pretty impressive. Could someone comment on what is going on down there, if anything.

[Cromagnum]

I'm curious about ghat southern flare up too. Is he reforming south?

[srainhoutx]

Bill looks stationary since the last center fix.

06162015 1422Z recon_AF308-0402A-BILL.png

[tireman4]

I think Steve addressed "wobbling" earlier. I think this is or could be a wobble, not a reformation. I will let the experts confirm or discount this.

[srainhoutx]

HGX reports 45 MPH winds @ Port O'Conner

[srainhoutx]

HGX Wind Gust Reports:

Code: Select all

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
933 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015


...WIND REPORTS PAST 24 HOURS ...

LOCATION                     SPEED     TIME/DATE       LAT/LON              

...BRAZORIA COUNTY...
CLOVER FIELD AIRPORT         44 MPH    1229 AM 06/16   29.52N/95.24W        
1 NE QUINTANA                38 MPH    0606 AM 06/16   28.94N/95.30W        
9 SW JONES CREEK             37 MPH    0829 AM 06/16   28.86N/95.57W        
BRAZORIA COUNTY AIRPORT      32 MPH    0759 AM 06/16   29.11N/95.46W        
6 SSE DANBURY                31 MPH    0528 PM 06/15   29.15N/95.30W        

...BRAZOS COUNTY...
EASTERWOOD FIELD AIRPORT     31 MPH    0501 PM 06/15   30.59N/96.36W        

...BURLESON COUNTY...
CALDWELL                     29 MPH    0530 PM 06/15   30.52N/96.70W        

...CHAMBERS COUNTY...
9 SSW STOWELL                32 MPH    0812 AM 06/16   29.67N/94.44W        

...FORT BEND COUNTY...
1 SE MISSOURI CITY           39 MPH    0801 PM 06/15   29.56N/95.52W        
SUGAR LAND MUN AP            35 MPH    1056 AM 06/15   29.62N/95.66W        
2 SW ROSENBERG               33 MPH    0218 PM 06/15   29.52N/95.81W        
1 WNW ARCOLA                 31 MPH    0135 PM 06/15   29.51N/95.48W        

...GALVESTON COUNTY...
SCHOLES INTL AT GALVESTON    43 MPH    0805 AM 06/16   29.27N/94.86W        
19 E SAN LEON                43 MPH    0656 AM 06/16   29.47N/94.62W        
2 SW KEMAH                   40 MPH    0714 AM 06/16   29.51N/95.05W        
2 E LA MARQUE                39 MPH    0819 AM 06/16   29.37N/94.95W        
4 ENE TEXAS CITY             38 MPH    0710 AM 06/16   29.42N/94.89W        
18 E SAN LEON                32 MPH    0728 AM 06/16   29.45N/94.64W        
2 ENE HILLCREST              30 MPH    0400 PM 06/15   29.41N/95.18W        
2 NW SANTA FE                29 MPH    0840 AM 06/16   29.41N/95.12W        

...GRIMES COUNTY...
8 SE NAVASOTA                36 MPH    0417 PM 06/15   30.29N/96.00W        

...HARRIS COUNTY...
WEBSTER                      44 MPH    0847 AM 06/16   29.54N/95.10W        
1 ENE CLEAR LAKE SHORES      42 MPH    0830 AM 06/16   29.56N/95.02W        
DAVID WAYNE HOOKS MEMORIAL A 31 MPH    0310 PM 06/15   30.06N/95.55W        
2 E WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE    31 MPH    0115 AM 06/16   29.72N/95.40W        
HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL     30 MPH    0245 PM 06/15   29.98N/95.34W        
4 SSW PASADENA               29 MPH    1250 PM 06/15   29.60N/95.17W        

...JACKSON COUNTY...
6 WSW LA WARD                36 MPH    0903 AM 06/16   28.79N/96.55W        
8 SSE LA WARD                35 MPH    0903 AM 06/16   28.73N/96.42W        
5 S LA WARD                  34 MPH    0923 AM 06/16   28.77N/96.46W        
9 W LA WARD                  32 MPH    0901 AM 06/16   28.82N/96.62W        

...MARINE REPORTING STATIONS...
BRAZOS 451                   66 MPH    0910 AM 06/16   28.49N/95.72W        
32 SE QUINTANA               62 MPH    0735 AM 06/16   28.58N/94.98W        
17 ESE PALACIOS              53 MPH    0806 AM 06/16   28.59N/95.98W        
13 E BAYOU VISTA             51 MPH    0718 AM 06/16   29.36N/94.72W        
23 E GALVESTON               47 MPH    0515 PM 06/15   29.18N/94.52W        
71 S QUINTANA                43 MPH    0250 AM 06/16   27.90N/95.40W        
1 E QUINTANA                 42 MPH    0759 AM 06/16   28.93N/95.29W        
8 ESE MAGNOLIA BEACH         41 MPH    0800 AM 06/16   28.45N/96.39W        
3 NNE SAN LEON               39 MPH    1026 PM 06/15   29.54N/94.91W        
1 ESE SAN LEON               38 MPH    0830 AM 06/16   29.48N/94.92W        
44 ESE GALVESTON             37 MPH    1100 AM 06/15   29.00N/94.20W        
14 SSE JAMAICA BEACH         36 MPH    0700 AM 06/16   29.00N/94.90W        
30 E GALVESTON               34 MPH    0650 AM 06/16   29.20N/94.40W        
1 ENE MORGAN''S POINT        33 MPH    0512 PM 06/15   29.68N/94.99W        

...MATAGORDA COUNTY...
PALACIOS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT   44 MPH    0857 AM 06/16   28.73N/96.25W        
BAY CITY                     29 MPH    0855 AM 06/16   28.97N/95.86W        

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
5 W PANORAMA VILLAGE         34 MPH    0335 PM 06/15   30.37N/95.59W        
MONTGOMERY COUNTY AIRPORT    33 MPH    0258 PM 06/15   30.35N/95.41W        

...SAN JACINTO COUNTY...
4 N COLDSPRING               38 MPH    0253 PM 06/15   30.66N/95.12W        

...WALKER COUNTY...
2 WNW HUNTSVILLE             29 MPH    0406 PM 06/15   30.74N/95.59W        

...WALLER COUNTY...
4 ENE BROOKSHIRE             31 MPH    0255 PM 06/15   29.81N/95.90W        

OBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYING
EQUIPMENT AND EXPOSURE. NOT ALL DATA LISTED ARE CONSIDERED OFFICIAL.

$$

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 14:38Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Number & Year: 02 in 2015
Storm Name: Bill (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 14:22:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°05'N 96°25'W (28.0833N 96.4167W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,404m (4,606ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the S/SSW (191°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 271° at 25kts (From the W at ~ 28.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the S (178°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph) which was observed 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the NE (51°) from the flight level center at 14:32:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 105° at 6kts (From the ESE at 7mph)