JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[ticka1]

Does anyone think this system is large and covers 75% of the GOM from New Orleans to Mexico? And growing by t he minute.

[unome]

Rick Knabb is working diligently to change the process. Remember even 'Doc' Neil and Bill Read as well as other Directors have had their dealings with making changes from the 'powers that be'...

I wonder if changing the procedure (or not) has to do with the insurance lobby - claims for a declared tropical system vs just a storm or rain? wasn't there an issue in Sandy about deductibles being lower if it was named ? maybe I'm remembering wrong though

any insurance ppl reading this board that have expertise in this area ?

[Andrew]

They will find a TS on the next recon mission. I am almost certain it is already a tropical storm at this point. Especially based on recent satellite imagery.

[jabcwb2]

Andrew, have you a better idea where landfall will take place and approx. time? Thanks!

[tireman4]

They will find a TS on the next recon mission. I am almost certain it is already a tropical storm at this point. Especially based on recent satellite imagery.

Have you noticed that in each loop, it is getting better and better organized? Wow...just wow...

[Andrew]

Andrew, have you a better idea where landfall will take place and approx. time? Thanks!

I would say a further south solution is more likely at this point. Between corpus and Matagorda would be my prediction

[jabcwb2]

Andrew, have you a better idea where landfall will take place and approx. time? Thanks!

I would say a further south solution is more likely at this point. Between corpus and Matagorda would be my prediction

Thank you, "they" always leave it up to me to make the determination as to have folks come to work (Galleria area) or work from home. I am going with come in to work...

[davidiowx]

Andrew, have you a better idea where landfall will take place and approx. time? Thanks!

I would say a further south solution is more likely at this point. Between corpus and Matagorda would be my prediction

Which would put us on the "dirty side" of the storm. I am curious as to if anyones work has said anything? Mine hasn't even mentioned anything about it. Last thing we need is this to strengthen rapidly and everyone get stuck trying to go to work in it..

[brooksgarner]

NOT A T.S. YET, BUT NHC SAYS IT SOON WILL BE...

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated
the broad area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico this morning,
and found that the circulation was too poorly defined to qualify the
system as a tropical cyclone. However, thunderstorm activity
continues to become better organized this afternoon, and the low
will very likely become a tropical storm this afternoon or this
evening as it continues moving to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds with the low are estimated to be near 45
mph, and interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, tropical storm conditions are likely
along portions of the middle and upper Texas coast, and possible in
extreme southwestern Louisiana, tonight and Tuesday. The system is
also likely to bring heavy rainfall with possible flooding across
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana. For additional
information, please see High Seas Forecasts and products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[bikerack]

Andrew, have you a better idea where landfall will take place and approx. time? Thanks!

I would say a further south solution is more likely at this point. Between corpus and Matagorda would be my prediction

Which would put us on the "dirty side" of the storm. I am curious as to if anyones work has said anything? Mine hasn't even mentioned anything about it. Last thing we need is this to strengthen rapidly and everyone get stuck trying to go to work in it..

My place of employment is a local school district. They have at least told us they are aware and are monitoring it...and will let us know.

[ajurcat]

My employer said to play it by ear but be prepared to work from home.

[seanatsk]

I'm having meetings right now to discuss shut down or not. It appears we're just going to continue to monitor. It'll probably be 3 or 5 am before we decide. It's difficult to tell a bunch of drivers to hit the road when it's flooding.

[Rip76]

Same situation here

[Andrew]

Andrew, have you a better idea where landfall will take place and approx. time? Thanks!

I would say a further south solution is more likely at this point. Between corpus and Matagorda would be my prediction

Thank you, "they" always leave it up to me to make the determination as to have folks come to work (Galleria area) or work from home. I am going with come in to work...

As always, check with the nws official forecast for decision like that

[singlemom]

hello everyone. Here I sit with my son at Walt Disney World in Florida. our flight is scheduled to leave to return to Houston Tuesday early afternoon. I've been trying to find out the updated information on my phone but its not that easy. I'm really trying to figure out which way it's heading or if we're going to be on the dirty band side so I can make plans. United Airlines is of no help as they're taking a wait-and-see approach. I would really appreciate it if you guys could help me figure out the odds of making it into Houston tomorrow or even Wednesday. thanks so much for the forums

[srainhoutx]

hello everyone. Here I sit with my son at Walt Disney World in Florida. our flight is scheduled to leave to return to Houston Tuesday early afternoon. I've been trying to find out the updated information on my phone but its not that easy. I'm really trying to figure out which way it's heading or if we're going to be on the dirty band side so I can make plans. United Airlines is of no help as they're taking a wait-and-see approach. I would really appreciate it if you guys could help me figure out the odds of making it into Houston tomorrow or even Wednesday. thanks so much for the forums

Typically the airlines will waive a change fee once the Houston Area is under a Watch/Warning. They do not like having all the aircraft in the area when a storm is approaching. Make plans on staying put an additional day or two and as soon as United issues a waiver on their website, then you can change your flight to a different day. If you are a Mileage Plus Elite Member, contact the Elite Member dedicated customer service line. Hope that helps.

[srainhoutx]

Another Update from Jeff:

Galveston County has requested the voluntary evacuation of the Bolivar Peninsula due to the potential for flooding of SH 87 and overwash of portions of the peninsula.

National Hurricane Center has run its SLOSH modeling for 91L and we have a little better guidance on tides and impacts.

Current large fetch ESE to SE winds will push sea water and increasing seas (6-12 ft) toward the upper TX coast. Combined effect of onshore winds and transport of water toward the coast will result in tides rising to between 4.0-5.0 ft above MLLW or 2.0-3.0 ft above MSL.

Checking various tide sites in along the coast and in Galveston Bay show the previous tides are being trapped in the NW portion of Galveston Bay. Water levels are running 1-2 ft above normal in the Bay and 1.0-1.5 ft along the Gulf beaches.

Latest data from NHC following the new inundation mapping for coastal storm surge shows water levels reaching 1-2 ft above ground level around the Tuesday morning high tide (300-700am) along the west end of Galveston Island, Bolivar, and the west side of Galveston Bay (Seabrook and Kemah). Tides within Clear Lake may reach 3.0ft-4.0ft which will be close to impact some roadways near and around the lake and possibly along Taylor’s Bayou in Shoreacres.

[srainhoutx]

Zoomed in 1km visible imagery clearly shows an anticyclone or Upper Ridge over 91L..likely to be TS Bill in a couple of hours. The storm is ventilating very well at the upper levels and convection continues to increase and consolidate suggesting a tropical cyclone has formed. Now we wait on the "official" word.

[mcheer23]

Been awhile since I've been on here...

12z Euro shifts the heavy rainfall axis to the I-35 corridor

[tireman4]

Yep, that is what Eric Berger, the Sci Guy is saying too. He put it on his Facebook. My conversation with him

From Eric Berger our Sci Guy at the Houston Chronicle...

I've just had a look at the new run of the European forecast model. While I'm not allowed to share its output in detail, it's safe to say that it is trending west like some other computer models. This brings the core of the heaviest rains west of Houston, generally from Corpus Christi, up to Austin and then up the Interstate 35 corridor.

I'm not saying Houston won't flood significantly, but for those concerned about that possibility I'd be cautiously optimistic.



I told him this was a big system and that is one model...
His response...

It's one model, but it's a very important model and it's seeing what other models are apparently seeing.

My words......Not sure I would go there.

https://www.facebook.com/ericbergersciguy?fref=nf