JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[Scott747]

Yeah no question with the pattern by recon that it was elongated and they were having trouble fully closing it off. Does appear if we do get a full close off it will be in that northern area.

Afternoon mission will take off in a few hours.

[tireman4]

Final Wide View for the Morning Ops..

http://i.imgur.com/gr0JSed.jpg

[ticka1]

what direction is it moving?

[Scott747]

K. Gotcha. So, Wxman 57 is/was right. 2 pm advisory. What is he, a soothsayer? LOL

There shouldn't be any upgrade till at least 4pm once the afternoon recon mission has sampled the system.

[Andrew]

what direction is it moving?

Looks like still NW

[srainhoutx]

Wide visible satellite image. Poor Carlos off Mexico (to the SW in the Eastern Pacific) is tiny now.

[tireman4]

Moving NW, I think...

[tireman4]

K. Gotcha. So, Wxman 57 is/was right. 2 pm advisory. What is he, a soothsayer? LOL

There shouldn't be any upgrade till at least 4pm once the afternoon recon mission has sampled the system.

Gotcha. Understood. I agree.....

[tireman4]

Alyono ( a pro met) over at S2K has the center near 26N, 93W.

[brooksgarner]

11:40am...

Special tropical weather outlook issued to report on results of the
aircraft reconnaissance mission.

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been
investigating the area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico all
morning. Data from the mission indicate that the circulation
is highly elongated and lacks a well-defined center. Therefore the
system is not a tropical cyclone and advisories are not being
initiated at this time. However, the low still has the potential to
become a tropical storm at any time before it reaches the Texas
coast sometime tomorrow.

The aircraft data do indicate that the system is producing winds of
45 mph or so to the east of the elongated trough axis, and interests
in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should continue to
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, tropical storm conditions are likely along portions of
the middle and upper Texas coast, and possible in extreme
southwestern Louisiana, Monday night and Tuesday. The system is also
likely to bring heavy rainfall with possible flooding across
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana. For additional
information, please see High Seas Forecasts and products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Scott747]

I actually think the area S around 25N 93W is beginning to look better. Always an issue with these types of systems before an area takes hold.

Overall flow still looks WNW to NW...

[tireman4]

Tweet from the Director of the National Hurricane Center (https://twitter.com/NHCDirector/) at 12:50pm EDT on Monday:

"Gulf system exemplifies why we’re developing future option to issue TC forecasts and warnings before TC formation. http://ow.ly/2btvEY"

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff that I missed while watching RECON:

Plane is still investigating the system over the Gulf…but there will not be an upgrade at 1000am.

Coastal Flood Advisory will be in effect for the upper TX coast starting at 700pm this evening

Flash Flood Watch will be issued for the entire area starting at 900pm this evening until Wednesday.

A dangerous flood event remains possible across all of SE TX.

Tides:
Guidance from the National Hurricane Center indicates total water level rise along the coast of 4.0-5.0 ft. Tidal plots are showing tides are being trapped in Galveston Bay and on the Gulf beaches due to wave run-up. Current tide levels are running 1.0-2.0 feet above normal and will continue to rise.

Current forecast is for total water levels to rise to between 4.0-5.0 ft above normal water levels for the Tuesday morning high tide (300am-700am) which put above 1.0-2.0 ft of water over the low lying areas on western Galveston Island, Bolivar, and the west side of Galveston Bay.

Tides of this level could place water onto SH 87 and Bluewater Highway along with portions of HWY 2004

Rainfall:
No significant changes. Large swath of 6-8 inches with isolated amounts of 10-12 inches.

Winds:
The plane has found a fairly large area of gale force winds east and north of the center and this will be moving toward our region tonight and Tuesday. Will onset gale conditions (likely TS force winds) across our water this evening and spreading into the entire middle and upper coast tonight from Matagorda Bay to High Island. Sustained winds of 35-50mph are likely with a few higher gusts. This will mainly limited to the coastal locations and near the coast over the inland bays.

[jeff]

Tweet from the Director of the National Hurricane Center (https://twitter.com/NHCDirector/) at 12:50pm EDT on Monday:

"Gulf system exemplifies why we’re developing future option to issue TC forecasts and warnings before TC formation. http://ow.ly/2btvEY"

Get on with it already...this is an operational pain in the neck!

[ticka1]

Voluntary evacuations start at noon today for Bolivar Peninsula.

[tireman4]

Tweet from the Director of the National Hurricane Center (https://twitter.com/NHCDirector/) at 12:50pm EDT on Monday:

"Gulf system exemplifies why we’re developing future option to issue TC forecasts and warnings before TC formation. http://ow.ly/2btvEY"

Get on with it already...this is an operational pain in the neck!

I know. I know. Alyono (pro met) over S2K stated " I shake my head in amazement at this ACADEMIC decision"

[srainhoutx]

Rick Knabb is working diligently to change the process. Remember even 'Doc' Neil and Bill Read as well as other Directors have had their dealings with making changes from the 'powers that be'...

[tireman4]

I bet there were arguments abound during the RECON flight/passes...man oh man to be a fly on the wall..

[srainhoutx]

Visible imagery continues to look better by the hour. With an upper level trough across West Texas, expect a general NW motion to continue into landfall before turning N and NE after its inland. We cannot emphasize enough that folks should prepare for very heavy rainfall with flooding across our Region. Turn Around. Don't Drown!

[tireman4]

Yeah...why could they have waited just "one more pass". My gracious. LOL