JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[unome]

from HGX http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

000
FXUS64 KHGX 142301
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
601 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2.00 INCHES AND NOMINAL HEATING CONTINUES TO
INITIATE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SE TX. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL
INCREASING MON AFTN FOR HEAVY RAIN AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.50
INCHES. SO MUCH OF WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE ON MONDAY AFTN IS TIED TO
THE SYSTEM IN THE SW GULF. WINDS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. WENT PREVAILING TSRA MON AFTN/EVENING. SO MUCH IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. 43

&&

[Paul Robison]

Winds:
Will not go much higher than 40-45mph across the coastal waters although stronger winds are possible in heavy thunderstorms and feeder bands. Worst of the weather will likely be removed to the east side of the center of circulation or across the SE TX waters into SW LA. Tropical storm force winds are possible if not likely across much of the coastal waters late Monday into Tuesday and across the coastal beaches and inland bays early Tuesday. Inland winds of 25-35mph can be expected.



I suspected as much, srainhoutex. Thank you. 25-35 mph winds generally are not damaging.

[JasonFontaine]

Until it's over land...one never knows. No guarantee with tropical systems...and I don't like the last few frames of radar...

[Rip76]

Well the Houston area definitely dried out for the eveing.

[galvbay]

New member..just checking in on the north side of Galveston Bay. Keeping an open eye in the gulf. galvbay

[Paul Robison]

dumb question but I'll ask it anyway....

Earlier today, forecasters said that there was very little chance of the disturbance turning into a hurricane. Has they changed their minds about that now?

[srainhoutx]

00Z Tracks and Intensity guidance. Welcome to all our new folks that have joined our weather community and our Facebook and Tweeter feeds. We are glad to have you! Time for this old man to get some rest. The 'night crew' should be active...

[Portastorm]

dumb question but I'll ask it anyway....

Earlier today, forecasters said that there was very little chance of the disturbance turning into a hurricane. Has they changed their minds about that now?

Paul, in short: no. At this time the expectation is for a tropical storm. Key phrase "at this time."

[Paul Robison]

dumb question but I'll ask it anyway....

Earlier today, forecasters said that there was very little chance of the disturbance turning into a hurricane. Has they changed their minds about that now?

Paul, in short: no. At this time the expectation is for a tropical storm. Key phrase "at this time."

Glad to hear it. One thing I don't get, though, is why people stand on the beach to watch things like this come in. Why?

[Rip76]

Ok.
This is a pretty good look at what is going on "satellite wise."

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/mflash-ir4.html
I see what looks like the main circulation at about 22.5 & 92.5.
But I also see a spin at about 23.5 & 88.

[TexasBreeze]

0z models have it going more south to Corpus now. Thoughts? A center reformation could take place at anytime to change things though.

[Rip76]

I can almost see this with that center more to the West.
That being said, I can't believe this board isn't going nuts.

[Paul Robison]

0z models have it going more south to Corpus now. Thoughts? A center reformation could take place at anytime to change things though.

Maybe we won't get rained on as hard, eh?

[Portastorm]

0z models have it going more south to Corpus now. Thoughts? A center reformation could take place at anytime to change things though.

That trend certainly caught my attention as south central Texas would be more in the crosshairs. I think until a true LLC forms it will be tough to pin down an exact track. Regardless southeast Texas will be in the "splash zone" either way.

[stormlover]

I just don't see it moving wnw, it's going to be nw movement with how the high pressure is and steering currents, just my opinion but who knows lol radar is making my head hurt trying to find the center

[Paul Robison]

I just don't see it moving wnw, it's going to be nw movement with how the high pressure is and steering currents, just my opinion but who knows lol radar is making my head hurt trying to find the center

Where would it go if it moves nw?

[Rip76]

I still believe that a Corpus area "landfall," would give Houston plenty of rain.

[Paul Robison]

I still believe that a Corpus area "landfall," would give Houston plenty of rain.

Let's hope mother nature doesn't overdo it again.

[Andrew]

Still think the main area of rotation that most are noticing are responsible with the ULL. Eventually a MLC and LLC could develop over that region but right now I think the greatest area of organization is further east around 88 degrees. This will be key though for the track. Also most of the reliable models still haven't initialized yet so lets see what the globals show first.

[Rip76]

Andrew, I mentioned this earlier.

"But I also see a spin at about 23.5 & 88."

Is this about where you're talking about?