2015 General Tropical Atlantic Discussions

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form north of
the Bahamas later this week. This system could gradually acquire
some subtropical characteristics by Thursday or Friday as it moves
slowly northward. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued on this system by 11 AM EDT Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending over portions of
Florida, the Bahamas, and adjacent waters are associated with an
upper-level trough and a weak surface low located over the
northwestern Bahamas. The aircraft reconnaissance mission scheduled
for this afternoon has been cancelled. However, conditions are
expected to become gradually more favorable for development over the
next day or so while the system moves slowly northward. A
subtropical or tropical cyclone could form by Thursday or Friday,
and interests along the southeast coast of the United States should
monitor the progress of this system through the weekend. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 8
PM EDT today. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[srainhoutx]

Latest RECON data suggests that a Subtropical Storm has formed off the Southeastern Coast of the United States. Will it be named subtropical storm Ana? We will likely know before the day is over.

[djmike]

Learning: What's the difference between a tropical and sub-tropical storm? Are sub-tropical storms really worthy of getting named? Just curious. Thanks in advance.

[srainhoutx]

Learning: What's the difference between a tropical and sub-tropical storm? Are sub-tropical storms really worthy of getting named? Just curious. Thanks in advance.

Subtropical Cyclone:

A non-frontal low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. Like tropical cyclones, they are non-frontal, synoptic-scale cyclones that originate over tropical or subtropical waters, and have a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. In addition, they have organized moderate to deep convection, but lack a central dense overcast. Unlike tropical cyclones, subtropical cyclones derive a significant proportion of their energy from baroclinic sources, and are generally cold-core in the upper troposphere, often being associated with an upper-level low or trough. In comparison to tropical cyclones, these systems generally have a radius of maximum winds occurring relatively far from the center (usually greater than 60 n mi), and generally have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

[srainhoutx]

Subtropical storm Ana forms off the Southeastern Coast of the United States.

[djjordan]

Correct me if I'm wrong ..... but didn't 2009's Ana form in May also?

[srainhoutx]

Correct me if I'm wrong ..... but didn't 2009's Ana form in May also?

TS Ana (2009) developed in August, djjordan. It didn't last long either.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30.  Long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3,
respectively.

The list of names for 2015 is as follows:

Name           Pronunciation    Name            Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Ana            AH-nah           Larry           LAIR-ree
Bill           bill             Mindy           MIN-dee
Claudette      klaw-DET         Nicholas        NIH-kuh-luss
Danny          DAN-ee           Odette          oh-DEHT
Erika          EHR-ih-kuh       Peter           PEE-tur
Fred           frehd            Rose            rohz
Grace          grayss           Sam             sam
Henri          ahn-REE          Teresa          tuh-REE-suh
Ida            EYE-duh          Victor          VIK-tur
Joaquin        wah-KEEN         Wanda           WAHN-duh
Kate           kayt

The Atlantic season got off to an early start this year, with
Tropical Storm Ana forming in May.  The next named storm that forms
this season will be Bill.

This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.  The issuance
times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 AM, and 8 PM EDT.  After the
change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM,
7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook.  Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A standard package of products, consisting of the Tropical Cyclone
Public Advisory, the Forecast/Advisory, the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion, and the Wind Speed Probabilities, is issued every six
hours for all ongoing tropical cyclones.  In addition, a Special
Advisory package may be issued at any time to advise of significant
unexpected changes or to modify watches or warnings.

The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel
watches or warnings.  It is used in lieu of or to precede the
issuance of a special advisory package.  It is also used to provide
hourly information in between public advisories when watches or
warnings are in effect and when the center of the tropical cyclone
can be reliably tracked by coastal radar. Tropical Cyclone Updates,
which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header
WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.

All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are
available on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov.  Twitter
notifications on select National Hurricane Center products for the
Atlantic are available via the handle @NHC_Atlantic. Information
about our Atlantic Twitter feed is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.php.  You can also interact with NHC on
Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[srainhoutx]

The tropical Atlantic remains quiet with a lot of SAL (African Dust) across the MDR (Main Development Region), but the tropical waves continue to travers the Central Atlantic. One wave about 2000 miles E of the Caribbean Islands may be worth monitoring in about 10 days as it near the Western Caribbean Sea were conditions may become more favorable for tropical development. The latest MJO 200mb charts are suggesting a more favorable pattern with rising air assisting in the development of tropical thunderstorms nearing the Eastern Pacific around the 1st few day of July. There is also a CCKW (Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave) slowly advancing E across the Western Pacific and the various MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) schemes suggest the potential of a somewhat more favorable pattern developing around the same time. Time will tell.

[Paul Robison]

The tropical Atlantic remains quiet with a lot of SAL (African Dust) across the MDR (Main Development Region), but the tropical waves continue to travers the Central Atlantic. One wave about 2000 miles E of the Caribbean Islands may be worth monitoring in about 10 days as it near the Western Caribbean Sea were conditions may become more favorable for tropical development. The latest MJO 200mb charts are suggesting a more favorable pattern with rising air assisting in the development of tropical thunderstorms nearing the Eastern Pacific around the 1st few day of July. There is also a CCKW (Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave) slowly advancing E across the Western Pacific and the various MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) schemes suggest the potential of a somewhat more favorable pattern developing around the same time. Time will tell.

06192015 1145Z wv-l.jpg

Hopefully this will turn out to be a Central America and Mexico storm, not a Texas storm. (forgive me for any wishcasting).

[wxman57]

Wind shear up to 90-100 kts across the Caribbean & western Gulf now. Extremely hostile conditions out there. I don't think we'll see the next storm until August. Nothing on the horizon now.

[BlueJay]

We will stay weather aware, but thanks for the good news wxman 57!