May 2015 Record Setting May Rainfall Totals For Region

[Rip76]

Inch of rain so far in about 20 minutes, it's going to get a little nasty around here tonight.

[Andrew]

Satellite continues to show cooling cloud tops south of I-10, and models are really pinpointing an area from matagorda bay up to the Houston metro region to get hit the hardest. The good news is that rain rates so far for most locations have been around a quarter up to around half an inch. As rip mentioned, some of the heavier bands could see a lot more a lot faster. Those locations will be the areas to watch as we head into the early morning hours. The band news is the ground is really saturated as it is and any additional rain will be runnoff. Expect clearing to happen sometime tomorrow morning as the shortwave ejects off to the northeast. Unfortunately, a stronger shortwave will rotate through central Tx again tomorrow night, providing a even better chance of showers and storms. Location and timing of that is still uncertain at this time, but areas further to the north and west look to have the best shot.

[Rip76]

Radar indicating lots of "red" coming up from the gulf, with no apparent breaks in the storms.
Training for sure.

[djjordan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1231 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 330 AM CDT

* AT 1228 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THREE TO SIX INCHES
OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY. A STORM SPOTTER NEAR FREEPORT REPORTED AN INCH OF RAIN IN
BETWEEN 1115 PM AND 1215 AM AND 6 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 8 PM.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
FREEPORT...SURFSIDE BEACH...OYSTER CREEK AND QUINTANA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

[djjordan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
140 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 215 AM CDT

* AT 140 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 8
MILES SOUTHEAST OF LIVERPOOL...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HITCHCOCK...
AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA AND WEST CENTRAL GALVESTON COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

[srainhoutx]

I have to go offshore on May 19 & 20. I was just wondering how accurate the 10 day forecasts are? I will be 125 miles due South of Galveston, at the BoomVang platform.

Any good weather reports for this area?

Lumberjack93

While it is too soon to know with any certainty what the sensible weather may hold 10 days out, the general upper air pattern looks to remain the same with a pesky upper trough to our West suggesting an unsettled pattern continues for the foreseeable future.

[unome]

funktop is looking funky... going green, that's a lot of rain

loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/sc/mflash-ft.html


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=qpferd
...cntl/srn texas...

very moist and moderately unstable airmass south of frontal bndry will begin to build wwd acrs w tx into nm this pd as high pres over the cntl plains shifts ewd allowing deepening sely low level flow to extend wwd acrs the region. expect a brief respite in convection behind initial complex of tstms pushing ewd off of s tx and the tx coast region this mrng but backing mid/upr flow will allow a couple of s/wvs to track newd from nrn mex toward the nm/w tx region over the next 24 hours which should help initiate convection farther west this mrng with storms building toward better mstr/instability from the big bend sewd. the nam is a bit more amplified with lead impulse seen on wv over nw mex at 06z..than the gfs and consequently it is quicker and heavier to dvlp activity near the big bend this mrng/aftn. the gfs on the other hand appears to show stgest forcing tues evening over w tx in advance of the more significant s/wv lifting newd from nw mex/sw u.s. it is with this dvlpment that it also appears to dvlp some gridscale feedback issues. it is hard to tell at this point if the nam is overdeveloped with the lead s/wv given lack of mex u/a data in that region this evening. taking an ensemble apch here with the gefs mean as well as blending in some nam given the uncertainty with lead impulse... seems like the best course of action at this time. thinking that whatever dvlps early near the big bend would feed into hier pw inflow downstream acrs the hill country and areas to the south for psbl mcs dvlpment late tue/tue night... leading to renewed excessive rain concerns. given the high mstr in place... pws between 1.5 and 2 inches... and expected slow storm motion... potnl for significant rainfall rates is high but without a clear synoptic signal and large model qpf spread... it is difficult to gage where anything greater than a slight risk would be appropriate.

sullivan

[jasons2k]

All south for this round...

[ticka1]

All south and look like the heaviest is over the GOM.

[srainhoutx]

A quick update this morning regarding the rest of the week into next week. The Global ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement that the pesky upper trough to our West will continue to be energized as disturbances roll across the Northern Pacific Ocean and drop S into Northern Mexico. Embedded in the sub tropical jet are multiple disturbances moving ENE toward the Baja Peninsula and the above synoptic pattern shows no sign of relaxing...possibly into Memorial Day if the longer range guidance is correct. The next upper shortwave disturbance is crossing Mexico this morning and should begin to develop showers and storms once again across near the Sierra Madre Mountains and S Texas into the Hill Country later today. We may see a reprieve as the weekend approaches, but abundant tropical moisture and an unstable airmass will be in place as the stalled frontal boundary retreats N.

It appears yet another severe weather episode is poised to develop over the weekend across the Southern and Central Plains as a very deep upper low/trough develops out West. The current guidance analysis suggests this next upper cold core low may be greater than 3+ Standard Deviation below normal, so expect many forecast challenges ahead. It does appear that heavy flooding rainfall chances will be in the forecast across the Lone Star State into Oklahoma for the next 7 days.

[srainhoutx]

Updated Weather Prediction Center Excessive Rainfall Outlook through early Wednesday maintains a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall.

05122015 1326Z Excessive Rainfall 94ewbg.gif

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
933 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015

...VALID 15Z TUE MAY 12 2015 - 12Z WED MAY 13 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 NE MMMV 40 NNE MMMV 75 WSW MMPG 70 WSW DRT 30 SSE 6R6
30 NNE 6R6 45 SSE MAF 25 S BPG 20 NNW SJT 25 E SJT 40 E SJT
35 N 6R9 15 NW GRK TPL 25 WSW LHB 15 SE CLL 10 ESE CXO
30 ENE IAH 35 ENE EFD 10 WNW GLS 15 E BYY 20 E 2R8 20 NW KMIU
20 W KMIU 25 WSW KOPM 10 N BRO 30 SSE MMRX 20 NE MMMY 35 NE MMMV.


...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS...

AFTER LOOKING AT THE 12Z RAOBS AND WHAT IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING..MADE NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE/THINKING.
VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF FRONTAL BNDRY
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WWD ACRS W TX INTO NM THIS PD AS HIGH PRES
OVER THE CNTL PLAINS SHIFTS EWD ALLOWING DEEPENING SELY LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO EXTEND WWD ACRS THE REGION. EXPECT A BRIEF RESPITE IN
CONVECTION BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX OF TSTMS PUSHING EWD OFF OF S TX
AND THE TX COAST REGION THIS MRNG BUT BACKING MID/UPR FLOW WILL
ALLOW A COUPLE OF S/WVS TO TRACK NEWD FROM NRN MEX TOWARD THE NM/W
TX REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP INITIATE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST THIS MRNG WITH STORMS BUILDING TOWARD
BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY FROM THE BIG BEND SEWD. THE NAM IS A BIT
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE SEEN ON WV THAN THE GFS AND
CONSEQUENTLY IT IS QUICKER AND HEAVIER TO DVLP ACTIVITY NEAR THE
BIG BEND THIS MRNG/AFTN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND APPEARS TO
SHOW STGEST FORCING TUES EVENING OVER W TX IN ADVANCE OF THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT S/WV LIFTING NEWD FROM NW MEX/SW U.S. IT IS WITH THIS
DVLPMENT THAT IT ALSO APPEARS TO DVLP SOME GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK
ISSUES. WILL TAKE AN ENSEMBLE APCH HERE WITH THE GEFS MEAN AS
WELL AS BLENDING IN SOME NAM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH LEAD
IMPULSE...SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME.
THINKING THAT WHATEVER DVLPS EARLY NEAR THE BIG BEND WOULD FEED
INTO HIER PW INFLOW DOWNSTREAM ACRS THE HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS TO
THE SOUTH FOR PSBL MCS DVLPMENT LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...LEADING TO
RENEWED EXCESSIVE RAIN CONCERNS. GIVEN THE HIGH MSTR IN
PLACE...PWS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...AND EXPECTED SLOW STORM
MOTION...POTNL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RATES IS HIGH BUT WITHOUT
A CLEAR SYNOPTIC SIGNAL AND LARGE MODEL QPF SPREAD...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO GAGE WHERE ANYTHING GREATER THAN A SLIGHT RISK WOULD
BE APPROPRIATE.

TERRY

[jasons2k]

Still seems like the most forecasted QPF is west of here, and we are in the hit-or-miss fringes.

[ticka1]

Still seems like the most forecasted QPF is west of here, and we are in the hit-or-miss fringes.

That is what I am seeing too...more miss then hit. Being I am on the east side of town I doubt we get much rain at all.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Excessive rainfall has occurred overnight yet again across the region.

Overnight rainfall has averaged 1-2 inches south of I-10 with amounts of 3-6 inches along the coast of Matagorda and Brazoria Counties and 5-6 inches over Corpus Christi in the last few hours. The winner was over 10.0 inches just off the coast of Matagorda County.

Well defined meso low is moving into the Gulf waters south of Matagorda Bay at this time and this feature will likely bring a period of very gusty winds to the nearshore waters for the next few hours as it moves eastward this morning. Tropical rain shield extends northeast from this feature across the western portions of SE TX, but is weakening with time. Not much confidence on how things will play out for the rest of today. Think the air mass will require a period of recovery even though it is still generally unstable. Moisture levels remain high and just a little bit of surface heating could set things off. No defined short wave can be found upstream over MX in the SW flow aloft and no defined surface boundaries (although there are likely some that just can’t be found lying around). Past experience with an offshore thunderstorm complex usually suggest inland areas will remain dry for several hours after the complex moves across the coastal waters.

Meso scale models are not showing much development this afternoon, but would not be surprised if something did try to develop given a few hours of heating. Next question then becomes when do thunderstorms refire over the region. Current model guidance is starting to hint at another weak short wave moving out of MX Wednesday afternoon and this would give the local air mass plenty of time to recover. Not overly confident in this solution, but think Wednesday late morning into the afternoon hours stands the next best chance for thunderstorms over the region.

Looking forward toward the end of the week the upper pattern undergoes little change with additional disturbances moving into the region from the SW. Some upper level ridging may attempt to exert itself over the region starting on Thursday, but moisture levels will remain elevated so the chance for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast especially during the afternoon hours.

Pattern looks to possibly begin to repeat itself yet again heading into next weekend and early the following week with another upper level trough digging into the SW US and SW flow aloft developing over TX.

Rivers:

Flood waves have been generated on the Brazos, Trinity, Navasota, and San Jacinto Rivers over the last 24 hours due to upstream rainfall and ongoing flood gate releases at various dams.

Navasota River:
River is rising at Normangee and forecast to rise and crest near 17.1 ft on Thursday afternoon (15.0 ft Flood Stage). The river is expected to begin a slow fall Friday, but remain above flood stage through next weekend.

West Fork of the San Jacinto River:
Flood gate operations ongoing at Lake Conroe with 6380cfs currently being released. River is rising at I-45 and Porter and just starting to rise at Humble. SJRA believes they will be able to hold releases around 6400cfs today and stabilize the pool elevation of the lake. Lake Conroe is a water supply lake and not a flood control lake so they are required to pass inflows through the lake once they rise above their conservation level. The current lake level is 201.85ft or .85ft above their conservation pool level.

Current releases combined with uncontrolled inflow from Lake Creek will likely result in a rise of the river above flood stage at Porter. Current forecast has the river rising to near 28.0 ft Friday (Flood Stage: 24.0 ft). Major flooding level is 28.0 ft.

The river will rise at Humble (US 59), but is currently forecast to remain below flood stage and crest this weekend. The forecast for Humble is currently low confidence and a higher crest than currently being forecast is possible.

Brazos River:
Multiple flood waves are working down the Brazos River along with inflow from the Navasota River below Bryan and Lake Somerville. Current forecast for all points (Bryan, Hempstead, Richmond, Rosharon) keep the river below flood stage.

Trinity River:
Flood waves are moving downstream from N TX. Lake Livingston is currently releasing 32,800cfs resulting in a rise in the lower Trinity River. Like Conroe, Livingston is a water supply lake and is required to pass its inflows. The lake is currently 1 ft above its conservation pool elevation. The river above Lake Livingston at Riverside will rise to near Flood Stage later today and hold at that level for the next several days. Downstream of Lake Livingston, the river will rise to near flood stage at Liberty and hold at that level for several days.

Additional rainfall both locally and upstream over the next several days along with flood gate release changes will alter forecasts along these rivers.

River Forecast for both locally and statewide can be found at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/

24-Hr Rainfall Totals

05122015 Jeff unnamed.png

[jasons2k]

Quote of the day, from one of the best, in today's Dallas Morning News:

“My old mentor, Howard Taft, always said the only way to end a drought is with a flood,” Finfrock said.

[djjordan]

Looks like more development near the coast heading inland.

[jasons2k]

Still sorta no-man's land up here - in that donut of light blue on the rainfall maps.

[Katdaddy]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
508 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 506 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN IN THE SAN LEON AREA. HIGH WATER WAS OVER THE ROADS NEAR
24TH AND BAY SHORE AND EDGEWATER AND BAY SHORE. FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY. ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY 600 PM.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
EASTERN LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...BACLIFF AND SAN LEON.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

[unome]

I missed the tornado warning earlier, glad it wasn't serious

not even sure where it was, by the time I clicked from HGX's home page to NWS's, it was gone

[BlueJay]

0.15" inches of rain today. Still seems like it was more.
I am not complaining!