April 2015: Pleasant Weather To End April

Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:57 am

The 13Z HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model continues to paint a bit of a worrisome situation for this evening into the overnight hours. A combination of an advancing Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) and a SE approach squall line with a weak Pacific frontal boundary typically spells trouble with the potential of very heavy rainfall rates, merging thunderstorm cells with multiple modes of severe weather potential.

Fri Apr 24, 2015 12:02 pm

04242015 mcd0434.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0434
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN TX/SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241653Z - 241830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...GRADUALLY INCREASING STORMS/SEVERE RISK EVIDENT ACROSS THE
SABINE RIVER VALLEY REGION AND EWD ACROSS SRN LA MAY REQUIRE WW
ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE TYR /TYLER TX/ VICINITY AND
APPROACHING THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE...AS MIXED-LAYER CAPE ACROSS THE GULF COAST HAS INCREASED
INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. SOME ORGANIZATION IS INDICATED
WITHIN THIS CLUSTER ATTM...AIDED BY FAVORABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLYS
ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS A BIT WEAK...SELY
SURFACE WINDS NEAR/N OF THE REMNANT FRONT LYING W-E ROUGHLY ALONG
THE GULF COAST MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE
LOCALLY AS CONVECTION GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES...WW MAY BE NEEDED IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...

Fri Apr 24, 2015 12:14 pm

A Tornado Watch has been issued for portions of far SE Texas and SW/S Central Louisiana until 6:00PM CDT.

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 99
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1210 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

   TORNADO WATCH 99 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR THE
    FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

   LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113-
   115-242300-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0099.150424T1710Z-150424T2300Z/

   LA 
   .    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

   ACADIA               ALLEN               AVOYELLES           
   BEAUREGARD           CALCASIEU           CAMERON             
   EVANGELINE           IBERIA              JEFFERSON DAVIS     
   LAFAYETTE            RAPIDES             ST. LANDRY          
   ST. MARTIN           ST. MARY            VERMILION           
   VERNON               


   TXC241-351-361-242300-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0099.150424T1710Z-150424T2300Z/

   TX 
   .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   JASPER               NEWTON              ORANGE              


   GMZ430-432-435-242300-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0099.150424T1710Z-150424T2300Z/

   CW 

   .    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

   SABINE LAKE 

   CALCASIEU LAKE 

   VERMILION BAY 

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...

Fri Apr 24, 2015 12:20 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1218 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
WESTERN BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
EAST CENTRAL JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
CENTRAL NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

* AT 1217 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER KIRBYVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

IN ADDITION...AT 1215, A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH WAS REPORTED 7 MILES
WEST OF KIRBYVILLE.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KIRBYVILLE...MERRYVILLE...FIELDS...CALL...DE QUINCY...BON WEIR...
SINGER...DEQUINCY...BIVENS...OLD SALEM...TROUT CREEK...BANCROFT...
ORETTA AND BLEAKWOOD.

Fri Apr 24, 2015 12:31 pm

The sun is out. Get ready...

Fri Apr 24, 2015 12:51 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1245 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN ALLEN PARISH IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1244 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR ORETTA...OR NEAR FIELDS...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE CHARLES...WESTLAKE...REEVES...RAGLEY...FIELDS...MOSS BLUFF...
DE QUINCY...SINGER...DEQUINCY...GILLIS...BULLER...LEBLEU
SETTLEMENT...LONGVILLE...BUHLER...LEBLANC...ORETTA...TOPSY AND
HOLMWOOD.

Fri Apr 24, 2015 12:57 pm

Satellite and radar imagery suggests a CU field is developing about 60 miles W of Del Rio and to the S near Laredo along the Serranias del Burro Mountains. This area is where the short range meso guidance has be 'sniffing' thunderstorm development this afternoon that may move E and affect Central Texas, the I-10 Corridor and eventually Metro Houston later this evening into the overnight hours.

Fri Apr 24, 2015 2:13 pm

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 100
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   210 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

   TORNADO WATCH 100 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
    FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

   TX 
   .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   ANDERSON             BELL                BOSQUE              
   BROWN                CALLAHAN            COKE                
   COLEMAN              COLLIN              COMANCHE            
   CONCHO               CORYELL             DALLAS              
   DELTA                DENTON              EASTLAND            
   ELLIS                ERATH               FALLS               
   FISHER               FREESTONE           HAMILTON            
   HASKELL              HENDERSON           HILL                
   HOOD                 HOPKINS             HUNT                
   IRION                JACK                JOHNSON             
   JONES                KAUFMAN             LAMPASAS            
   LIMESTONE            MCCULLOCH           MCLENNAN            
   MENARD               MILLS               NAVARRO             
   NOLAN                PALO PINTO          PARKER              
   RAINS                ROCKWALL            RUNNELS             
   SAN SABA             SCHLEICHER          SHACKELFORD         
   SOMERVELL            STEPHENS            STERLING            
   TARRANT              TAYLOR              THROCKMORTON        
   TOM GREEN            VAN ZANDT           WISE                
   YOUNG                


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

Fri Apr 24, 2015 2:22 pm

Flood Watch issued for portions of Central Texas including San Antonio and the Counties along the I-10 Corridor. Austin is not included in this Watch.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
215 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...

.A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAS LED TO POCKETS OF SATURATED GROUNDS...AND ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE THREAT WILL END
WEST TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

BASTROP-LEE-MEDINA-BEXAR-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-FRIO-ATASCOSA-
WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...HONDO...
SAN ANTONIO...SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...PEARSALL...
PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...
HALLETTSVILLE
215 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
CALDWELL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...
KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...MEDINA AND WILSON.

* TIMING...FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10.

* IMPACTS...RAPID RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...AND URBAN AREAS NORMALLY SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

Fri Apr 24, 2015 4:28 pm

Special Sounding from KCLL. Very impressive.

Fri Apr 24, 2015 5:15 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0439
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242156Z - 242330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MX WILL
APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITHIN THE NEXT HR. PARTS OF S TX ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MX ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY /S OF DRT/ BY 23Z. STRONG
HEATING WITHIN A MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3500 J/KG...AND A WEAKENING CAP WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S F. 50 KT MIDLEVEL SWLYS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DMGG WIND GUSTS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...BUT VEERS WITH HEIGHT...SO
A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

THE MOST FAVORABLE ZONE FOR SVR TSTMS IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE
DOWNSTREAM FROM DEVELOPING CONVECTION /ROUGHLY BETWEEN DRT AND LRD
AND AREAS TO THE E/. ADDITIONAL WEAKER CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
FARTHER S UPSTREAM FROM ZAPATA/WEBB COUNTIES...BUT WILL LIKELY BE AT
LEAST 2 HRS BEFORE THESE AREAS ARE AFFECTED. SPATIAL COVERAGE OF
TSTMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
OROGRAPHIC FORCING BEING PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...TRENDS
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..ROGERS/DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/24/2015

Fri Apr 24, 2015 5:18 pm

695
WFUS54 KHGX 242215
TORHGX
TXC225-313-455-471-242245-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0005.150424T2215Z-150424T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
515 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 514 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR MIDWAY...OR 7 MILES EAST OF MADISONVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOVELADY AND MIDWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ISSUED
FOR THE SAME AREA.

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3102 9537 3094 9561 3090 9585 3103 9591
3109 9577 3110 9577 3122 9552
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 246DEG 23KT 3098 9579

$$

!KP!

Fri Apr 24, 2015 6:31 pm

HGX cancels Tornado Watch for Houston, Madison, Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity, Walker Counties in SE Texas.

Fri Apr 24, 2015 6:52 pm

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for portions of South/ South Central Texas until 2:00 AM CDT Saturday.

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 104
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   650 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
   FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

   TX 
   .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   BROOKS               DIMMIT              DUVAL               
   FRIO                 JIM HOGG            KINNEY              
   LA SALLE             MAVERICK            MCMULLEN            
   MEDINA               STARR               UVALDE              
   WEBB                 ZAPATA              ZAVALA              


   ATTN...WFO...BRO...EWX...CRP...

Fri Apr 24, 2015 6:57 pm

Bexar County to be added to the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for S and S Central Texas.

Paul Robison · Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:03 pm

Dear anyone?

I have to go shopping tomorrow morning. What will the weather be like at 7:00 A.M. on Saturday?

Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:14 pm

Paul, the storms to our West past San Antonio are moving E at 40 MPH. Too soon to know with any certainty what the sensible weather will be at 7:00AM tomorrow morning.

Paul Robison · Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:04 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Paul, the storms to our West past San Antonio are moving E at 40 MPH. Too soon to know with any certainty what the sensible weather will be at 7:00AM tomorrow morning.

Oops! Jumped the gun a little bit, didn't I? What are those storms you just mentioned like (curious)?

Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:49 pm

A quick update after a great Houston Rockets exciting win to go up 3-0 against the Dallas Mavericks. Storms currently S of San Antonio continue to move E around 40 MPH. A very large and impressive supercell currently W of the Rio Grande Valley is heading E generally towardBrownsville. Showers and thunderstorms should near Metro Houston around midnight and approach the Coast around 5 AM. Frequent lightning and heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches may be possible with these storms.

Tomorrow we will begin focusing our attention to the Sunday into Monday timeframe when a very potent and dynamic upper low begins to develop and move E across Texas ushering in another round of possibly very strong to severe storms and very heavy rainfall before a strong Pacific cold front ushers in very cool and drier air Wednesday into the late next week timeframe. We may finally get an extended break from the very active weather pattern we have seen since March. More on the next weather maker tomorrow.Stay Tuned!

Sat Apr 25, 2015 3:31 am

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 10:00 AM CDT from Del Rio to just W of Metro Houston.

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 107
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
309 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
107 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
AREAS

IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES

AUSTIN BURLESON COLORADO
JACKSON WASHINGTON WHARTON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...CALDWELL...
COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
PIERCE...SEALY...WEIMAR AND WHARTON.

April 2015: Pleasant Weather To End April

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