MS 150 Bike Ride - Day 1 Cancelled!

[wxman57]

My wife is registered to ride for about the 17th time this year so I've been watching the weather very closely over the past 2 weeks. It's now less than 24 hours before the ride start and once again the weather forecast is very uncertain. Just once I'd like to be able to say "no worries - sunshine, warm temperatures, light wind and no rain both days". There is always some weather threat for this weekend.

Looking at the American (GFS) and European (ECMWF) models run overnight, there is complete disagreement as far as tomorrow's weather. The GFS says rain/showers all day tomorrow, the ECMWF has no rain during the day but light rain tomorrow night.

The one thing that they both agree on is more heavy rain across the route late this afternoon into early Saturday morning. This should make for quite sloppy conditions (i.e., mud) at the La Grange fairgrounds. Temperatures should range from the upper 60s to mid 70s on Saturday.

Sunday looks great. Light wind, some sunshine and a high in the mid to upper 80s.

I'm hopeful that by the time the morning runs of the GFS & ECMWF come out (by 1:30pm) they will be in better agreement and the forecast will be a bit less uncertain. However, I think I'll need to wake up with my wife by 4am tomorrow and make a final radar/model check before she makes her final decision. She can take a few light showers along the way, but widespread rain would make the ride far too dangerous with 13,000 riders.

I'll update the forecast this afternoon.

[wxman57]

See the note below that was just posted to the MS 150 website. They've cancelled the day 1 ride (Saturday). The ride will start from La Grange on Sunday:

After serious consideration, Day 1(Saturday, April 18) of the 2015 BP MS 150 is canceled due to conditions at the overnight sites in La Grange and the expected severe weather in the area. Excessive rainfall and wind that occurred throughout this week has had a significant impact on the two sites where a majority of teams and cyclists camp overnight, Fayette County Fairgrounds and Camp St. Mark’s, and have been determined unsafe and inaccessible. The City of La Grange Office of Emergency Management has closed these sites. We know our cyclists have put in a lot of training and fundraising efforts. Your continued patience, understanding and support are greatly appreciated! Do NOT ride the route on Day 1, Saturday, April 18. The route on Day 1 will be closed and all standard support services— rider support, transportation and breakpoints — along the route will be suspended on Saturday. The safety and security of all participants are our top priorities, but ultimately your safety is your personal responsibility.

At this time, day two of the ride will proceed on Sunday, April 19, from La Grange to Austin. The start line will now be at the Fayette County Courthouse in La Grange (151 N. Washington St) with an 8 a.m. start time. We are currently assessing the logistics and route conditions from La Grange to Austin and will continue to provide updates on www.bpms150.net and the BP MS 150 Facebook Page as details become available. Opt-in to receive important text message event alerts this weekend by texting BP to 68686. Standard rates apply.

Please note that all BP MS 150 participants and teams are subject to the sanctioned logistics designed for the BP MS 150 at all times and if any rider or team chooses to ride outside the sanctioned boundaries of the BP MS 150 they are doing so at their own risk and peril. The sanctioned logistics of the BP MS 150 includes, but is not limited to, the official start sites, routes, breakpoint sites, lunch sites, overnight sites, finish site and the official time of route opening and route closure as determined by our Security Teams and as permitted by weather conditions.

[Texaspirate11]

I applaud you for doing this wxman
I just cancelled my show for tonight
Not worth the risk in putting people in danger.