April 2015: Pleasant Weather To End April

[Katdaddy]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 65
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
830 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM 830 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A RISK FOR A COUPLE
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
ANGLETON TEXAS TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

[srainhoutx]

Cell merger occurring across Western Harris County now. Reports of falling trees into homes in the Woodlands.

[srainhoutx]

Jeff, any updates would be greatly appreciated. A lot of folks are wondering about tomorrow.

[Andrew]

Current Radar shows the bow over the Sealy and Wallis area with locally 40 to 50mph winds. Also could be a small bookend vortex developing on the northern side of it. It will continue to move off to the WSW through the night with gradual weakeneing.

[srainhoutx]

04162015 mcd0044.gif

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0044
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1002 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 170202Z - 170602Z

SUMMARY...INSTABILITY AND ONGOING 0-3 KM SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN RATES TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. CONSIDERING SATURATED SOILS, FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH
SUFFICIENT CLOUD BASE INFLOW HAS LED TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION OVER THE PAST EIGHT HOURS. REPORTS FROM THE JEFFERSON
COUNTY TX MESONET INDICATE A HANDFUL OF SITES WITH 5"+ OF RAIN,
WITH ONE SITE APPROACHING 8". INFLOW AT 850-700 HPA IS AROUND 25
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, CLOSE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
850-400 HPA MEAN WIND, WHILE SURFACE WINDS ARE EAST-NORTHEAST DUE
TO THE FORMATION OF A COLD POOL ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST
LA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.8-2" EXIST ACROSS THE REGION
PER GPS INFORMATION, WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF 2" AN HOUR RAIN RATES
WHERE CELLS STALL AND/OR TRAIN. THE 00Z CORPUS CHRISTI TX
SOUNDING SHOWED 4538 J/KG CAPE WITHIN A CAPPED AIRMASS ACROSS
SOUTHERN TX, WHERE 700 HPA TEMPERATURES APPROACH 10C.

THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL EPISODE COULD END FROM WEST TO EAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, URGED ONWARD BY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MOVING INTO AUSTIN COUNTY. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AND SIGNIFICANT CAPE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT, CASTING DOUBT CONCERNING A QUICK END TO THIS HEAVY RAIN
EVENT. CONVECTION COULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED OVER THE BOUNDARY
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME NORTHWARD
RETURN OF HEAVY RAIN CORES. MUCH OF THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE
INDICATES AN ADDITIONAL 3-5" LOCALLY IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
CONSIDERING HOW MUCH RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN, FLASH FLOODING IS
CONSIDERED LIKELY.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:


Radar showing developing rear inflow jet into the backside of the line of storms suggesting a developing straight line wind damage threat along the leading edge of the bow. Apex of the bow appears headed for N Fort Bend County where winds to 65-70mph will be possible. Knocking down of trees and powerlines will be possible along with some strucutural damage to roofs/windows with this line. Should the line hold together it will affect more populated Harris County mainly along and SW of US 290.

This is a dangerous line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing significant wind damage. Seek safe shelter in an interior windowless room on the lowest floor of your structure. Abandon mobile homes for strong shelter.

[srainhoutx]

Large trees down across La Grange in Fayette County. Heavy equipment being called in to remove downed trees.

[Andrew]

Watch out around East Bernard

[srainhoutx]

HGX will be expanding the Flash Flood Watch shortly.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
945 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT

* AT 944 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ORCHARD...OR 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ROSENBERG...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SUGAR LAND...SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI CITY...ROSENBERG...RICHMOND...
FIRST COLONY...PECAN GROVE...MISSION BEND...NEEDVILLE...FULSHEAR...
PLEAK...SIMONTON...FAIRCHILDS...BEASLEY...KENDLETON...ORCHARD...
THOMPSONS...FOUR CORNERS...NEW TERRITORY...GREATWOOD AND CUMINGS.

[jasons2k]

I haven't seen it rain this hard in a long time. Also, I can't even remember the last time we were in a Tornado Watch. Maybe Ptarmigan can tell us.

[srainhoutx]

A final update from me then time for some shut eye. The current thinking is a strong to very strong MCS will develop just NW of San Antonio late tomorrow morning and organize further as it nears SE Texas. Tomorrow afternoon and evening could be as strong if not stronger than what we have seen today. Again all modes of severe weather may be possible on Friday so stay tuned. Goodnight.

[Andrew]

Beginning to see some weakening with the storms across the area but keep an eye out as some of the convection still has some locally gusty winds.

[Rip76]

Wow, that was very heavy rain earlier.

[Andrew]

SPC for day One and Two have a large area of the southern Texas into Southeast Texas in an enhanced risk.

Day 1:

swody1_categorical.png

Day 1: Tornado

swody1_tornadoprob (1).png

Day 1 Hail:

swody1_hailprob.png

Day 1 Wind:

swody1_windprob.png

Day 2:

swody2_categorical.png

Discussion:

"DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF SCNTRL AND S
TX...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF NWRN
KS...NERN CO AND SWRN NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS AND GULF COAST AREA...

..SUMMARY

SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/WIND AND PERHAPS A
FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS...NORTHEAST COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF
SURROUNDING STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

..SYNOPSIS

CUTOFF UPPER LOW SITUATED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EWD FRIDAY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING THE CENTER OF THIS
FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER SOUTH WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT
IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST UPPER JET APPROACHING THE BAJA AREA.
THIS UPPER JET WILL REACH SRN TX LATER TODAY.

DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT WILL PERSIST FROM WRN TX NWD TO AN EVOLVING
SFC LOW OVER WRN KS. A WARM FRONT SHOULD EXTEND EWD THROUGH NRN KS
FRIDAY AND MAY LIFT NWD INTO SRN NEB. A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN GULF WWD INTO SRN OR SCNTRL TX.

..CNTRL THROUGH S TX

A VERY MOIST SFC LAYER WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS EXISTS OVER SRN AND
SCNTRL TX BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES AS OBSERVED ON THE 00Z CORPUS
AND BROWNSVILLE RAOBS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AS DIABATIC WARMING COMMENCES DURING THE DAY WITH
MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG LIKELY. DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDING THE APPROACHING UPPER JET WILL INTERACT WITH THE
DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SRN THROUGH CNTRL TX BY
MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH
INCREASING IN DEEP SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER JET WITH 40-50 KT
0-6 KM SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING HP SUPERCELLS
AND BOWING STRUCTURES. WHILE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE PARTICULARLY LARGE DUE TO MODEST LOW LEVEL WINDS...VEERING
PROFILES IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT...LARGE CAPE AND STORMS
INTERACTING WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
A FEW TORNADOES. SOME STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS
CLUSTERS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL INTO THE
EVENING.

..NWRN TX THROUGH WRN/CNTRL OK...WRN AND CNTRL KS
NERN CO AND SRN
NEB...

SELY WINDS EAST OF LEE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MODIFIED CP AIR
THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S IN
OK TO 50S IN KS AND NEAR 50 NERN CO. BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL
BE IN PROGRESS FROM CNTRL KS INTO CNTRL OK EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EWD...AND THE UPSTREAM
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE IN ITS WAKE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000-2000
J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
DRYLINE/FRONT FROM NERN CO THROUGH WRN/CNTRL KS AND SWD INTO WRN OK
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES AND ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATE THROUGH THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. A MID-LEVEL JET ATTENDING THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN CORRIDOR FROM WRN OK INTO WRN KS AND NERN
CO SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY LARGE DUE PRESENCE OF A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET...BUT A
FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY EXPAND EWD THROUGH
THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY
MID-EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

..DIAL/COOK/COHEN.. 04/17/2015 "

[Andrew]

Tx-tech WRF model has been the most reliable model as of late and continues to show the formation of a meso-low ahead of a MCS tomorrow afternoon around San Antonio. This would help to sustain precipitation later into the evening and overnight hours.

[srainhoutx]

As Andrew mentioned, the Texas Tech WRF performed very well yesterday again suggests a very worrisome situation developing this afternoon extending into the overnight hours of early Saturday with yet a third MCS developing Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. Not only has the Storm Prediction Center outlined a Enhanced Risk for Severe Storms today, but they have issued yet another Enhanced Risk for Severe Storms on Saturday. The Flash Flood Watch has been extended into Saturday morning and may need extending into Sunday morning as well. All modes of severe weather will once again be possible with damaging winds, hail and torrential rainfall being the primary threat. An isolated tornado or two remains a possibility as some storms could become super cellular once again. Rainfall amounts could range from an inch or two with isolated totals approaching 6-8 inches just today on top of what has fallen yesterday and overnight. This is a serious weather situation and we encourage everyone to pay close attention today into tomorrow as our weather worries continues. Stay safe and stay tuned!

04172015_1030Z_US_wv.jpg

04172015 00Z Friday Afternoon dom_2km_sfc_dbz_f25.gif

014172015 Saturday Afternoon dom_2km_sfc_dbz_f42.gif

04172015 SPC Day 2 day2otlk_0600.gif

[Katdaddy]

The radar is quiet this morning except for just offshore the Upper TX Coast but that will change over the next 24 hours. The Houston-Galveston NWS state it well in this mornings AFD:

VERY HEAVY RAINS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT JUST A TASTE OF WHAT IS TO COME.

The heaviest rains fell E of Houston metro where 4-8" of rain fell last night. Harris County received 2.5-3.5" across the SW portion of the county while areas E of downtown Houston saw up to 5.25". The potential exist for significant flooding and severe weather through Saturday. The SPC has an enhanced risk for S and SE TX today and Saturday. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all of SE TX through Saturday with some areas receiving an additional 3-6". Later this afternoon and overnight will bring a significant severe weather threat as models indicate a mesoscale convective system developing across W portions of SE TX which will move across the Houston-Galveston areas. Be weather aware today.

[srainhoutx]

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
542 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 17/1200 UTC THRU APR 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


MADE ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF BASED MOSTLY
ON RECENT RADAR IMAGERY/TRENDS.

DAY 1...

...CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION NEAR THE 4
CORNERS INTO EASTERN CO BY SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY H85 FLOW
UP THRU THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BECOME A MORE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW INO PORTIONS OF WY AND CO..WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PWS
BEING BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD IN THIS H85 FLOW REGIME. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS DECENT MOISTURE..AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ENHANCED
BY A GRADUALLY FALLING HEIGHT REGIME..UPPER DIFLUENCE IN THE NORTH
AND EAST QUAD OF THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT..AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
MAINLY CO AND WY..WILL SUPPORT GENEROUS RAINFALL TOTALS AND LIQUID
EQUIVALENT OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM OK..KS AND NE
BACK INTO CO AND WY. STAYED CLOSE TO REASONABLY SIMILAR GLOBAL
MODEL QPFS..ALL OF WHICH INDICATED AT LEAST A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF
0.50-1.50+ INCH RAINS FROM OK INTO NE..WITH SOME OF THESE SAME
AMOUNTS/WATER EQUIVALENTS BACK INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHCENTRAL CO AND SOUTHEASTERN WY. PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD FOR
SNOWFALL DETAILS.


...TX INTO THE GULF STATES...

THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM IS EXPECED TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN THIS
PERIOD..AND ESPECIALLY SO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT..AS A
COUPLE OF RATHER WELL DEFINED S/WVS WITHIN THIS STREAM PULL INTO
TX AND THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAKER IMPULSE IN THIS SUBTROPICAL STREAM COMING INTO
WESTERN MEXICO AT THIS TIME..WITH A STRONGER UPSTREAM IMPULSE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAJA. FOR THE MOST PART..THE MODELS PICK
UP ON THESE FEATURES..BRINGING THEM RATHER RAPIDLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THESE IMPULSES..A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SOMEWHAT..UP
TO 30-35KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT..WHICH BRINGS IN PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.75
INCHES INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TX AND SOUTHERN LA. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AHEAD OF THESE
SUBTROPICAL IMPULSES AND THE ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND PWS..LEADING TO SOME HEAVY TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINS FROM SOUTHEASTERN TX INTO SOUTHERN LA. IN A
GENERAL SENSE..THE MODEL QPFS ARE SIMILAR IN INDICATING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME HEAVIER RAINS FROM EASTERN TX INTO LA..ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE LESS AGREEABLE AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST OF RAINS WILL
OCCUR. STUCK CLOSE TO AN ARW..NMMB AND WRF/NSSL
COMPROMISE..KEEPING THE HEAVIER RAINS NEAR THE MID/UPPER TX COAST
AND THE LA COAST.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Threat for organized severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over all of SE TX.

Next upper level impulse over MX will rotate into TX this afternoon and across SE TX early this evening. Area was hard hit yesterday afternoon and evening and today looks potentially worse than yesterday. Low level boundary responsible for training of flooding rainfall overnight has shifted southward into the nearshore waters with meso high located over SW LA. Cool stabilized air mass over SE TX will quickly be replaced with a warm humid unstable air mass by midday as winds return to the south starting the moisture pump into the region. Low level shear values remain favorable for storm rotation this morning with strongly backs low level winds out of the east north of the surface boundary.

Air mass becomes extremely unstable by early afternoon with CAPE values soaring to 3000 J/kg and strong mid level cooling producing very steep lapse rates (rate at which surface air parcels will ascend). Low level shear values should gradually weaken as winds veer to the SE, but overall effective shear will remain 40-50kts over the region. Large MCS possible bow echo is strongly modeled by nearly all guidance to develop between Del Rio and San Antonio early this afternoon and move into SE TX late this afternoon and evening. Potential is there for widespread wind damage along the leading edge of this complex and SPC has much of the area in an enhanced severe risk. Cannot rule out a few tornadoes in any cells that develop early this afternoon near the low level boundary…as we saw yesterday the supercells south of the warm front were long tracked and dangerous. Will update the severe potential around midday.

Flood Threat:
Grounds are now saturated over the region after widespread 1-3 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts up to 6-7 inches especially over Liberty and Chambers Counties. Upstream air mass over the western Gulf of Mexico is extremely moist with moisture levels near equal to June or July. This air mass will rapidly return to the region by late morning. Storms will again exhibit intense short term rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour. I am worried about the low level boundary returning northward over the area early this afternoon as this could result in the formation of slow moving excessive rainfall prior to the complex of storm arriving this evening. Additional rainfall will run-off and cause flooding. Additional rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches is possible with isolated totals upwards of 6 inches.

Flash Flood Watch has been extended until 800am Saturday morning.