March Ends As One Of The 'Wettest' March On Record

[Paul Robison]

NOAA says:


TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT SHOULD DROP VERY QUICKLY. TEMPS
IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED THUR MORNING. FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED AT
ABOUT THE TYPICAL BRENHAM...CONROE...CLEVELAND LINE NORTHWARD.
THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING. WINTER IS NOT QUITE
OVER YET. WED NIGHT INTO THUR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE S ROCKIES AND SHEAR OUT WHILE PHASING
WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE C PLAINS. WHERE THERE IS NOT
MUCH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM PVA...JET STREAM BECOMES FAVORABLY
POSITIONED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER MUCH OF
C AND E TX. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF LIFT THROUGH DIVERGENCE
WITH THE JET CORE. FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WILL ALSO SUPPORT PRECIP
DURING THIS TIME. THIS MEANS THAT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH
THE FRONT COULD TURN INTO A WINTRY MIX BY THUR. BTW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR WED LOOK SUSPECT AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT CAP FROM THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. BASED
OFF GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KCLL...AREAS NORTH OF THE FREEZING LINE
OUTLINED ABOVE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RA/FZRA/IP. IF SUB
FREEZING LAYER DEEPENS AND THERE IS MORE SATURATION ALOFT NEAR
-10C LEVELS AND ABOVE...MAY SEE MORE OF A TRANSITION TO SLEET THAN
FZRA. BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLOW TRANSITION
FROM RA TO FZRA TO SLEET AS PRECIP ENDS THUR. THE GFS HAS MUCH
MORE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON
ICE/SLEET TOTALS. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BUT IT USUALLY DOES NOT TAKE MUCH
AROUND HERE FOR AN IMPACT.

BTW:

FOG REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY...AND DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED. FOG MAY RETURN EARLY TUESDAY AS SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW RETURNS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY AND COLDER BEHIND THE
FRONT. IF ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AND TEMPERATURES GET COLD
ENOUGH... SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FRONT FROM
COLLEGE STATION TO HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

If you live in the areas the forecaster (in bold) has just mentioned, stay tuned.

BTW: I have to be somewhere Thursday morning. I'm not going to have to wrestle with any snow or sleet, am I. (I'm in Houston metro area, if anybody's interested)

[nuby3]

So there won't be much in the way of thunderstorms with the front then, since there isn't going to be a lot of instability. I'm betting on some sleet pellets mixing in Thursday morning

[Paul Robison]

So there won't be much in the way of thunderstorms with the front then, since there isn't going to be a lot of instability. I'm betting on some sleet pellets mixing in Thursday morning

Will that cause Houstonians any problems? Sleet? Could someone elaborate on wind gusts for Wednesday-Thursday period?

[nuby3]

They said they are not expecting enough of sleet or ice to cause any issues, but to be paying attention anyways just in case because people here don't know how to handle it. Wind gusts will be enough to move a flag around a bit. May need wind advisories near the coast. Nothing out of the ordinary

[redneckweather]

Agreed. I wouldn't expect much, if anything down here in the form of frozen precip. It will pretty much be like last weeks front. Probably identical in terms of temps and a cold drizzle/rain. Hopefully this arctic front will be the last one.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Cloudy, cool, and damp sums up the weather across the area this morning…and for much of this week.

Coastal surface trough continues to plague the area with fog and drizzle north of the trough and much warmer spring like temperatures south of the boundary. This feature pushed inland yesterday allowing Pearland and Angleton to reach the upper 70’s while Sugar Land remained in the 50’s and College Station in the mid 40’s. Overnight this trough axis and pushed back southward into the coastal waters with north winds in place across the entire region and temperatures running in the 40’s and lower 50’s. Not expecting much warm up today under drizzle, fog, and cloud cover. Warm air advection over top of the surface cold dome will keep the dreary weather locked in place all day.

Big changes transpire on Tuesday…for the best day of the week weather wise! Coastal warm front will rapidly surge inland flooding the area with mild air. Dewpoints and temperatures will sharply rise with the frontal passage with dewpoints pushing into the upper 60’s and temperatures the mid and upper 70’s. Warm dewpoints over the cold nearshore waters will likely result in dense sea fog formation. Drizzle and showers will move out of the area with the warm frontal passage and skies may even scatter out south of the warm front and north of the coastal sea fog bank.

Even bigger changes arrive on Wednesday. Another strong arctic cold front will plow across the region Wednesday afternoon resulting in rapidly falling temperatures. High temperatures in the 70’s will fall quickly into the 40’s and 30’s by evening. Freezing line will quickly advance into the region Wednesday night. Air mass ahead of the front will be moist, but likely capped off by warm mid level temperatures. Not expecting much in the way of severe weather given the warm sector air mass will likely have widespread cloud cover and little heating. Rain chances certainly increase with the frontal passage and continue into the post frontal air mass…which leads to the next concern.

Wednesday night/Thursday morning:
Strong arctic front will have moved into the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday evening with strong cold air advection driving temperatures into the 30’s over much of the area. Strong winds will likely require wind advisories for at least the coastal counties with gust possibly up to 40mph which will drive wind chills into the 10’s and 20’s. Rain chances will linger behind the front as moisture overruns the surface arctic dome. Surface freezing line will move into the area Wednesday evening and likely reach as far south as a Brenham to Cleveland line (sound familiar). Light rain may change over to light freezing rain early Thursday across the northern 1/3rd of the area. Forecast soundings show mainly a freezing rain P-type, but might suggest some sleet mixed in also especially from College Station to Huntsville. Right now it appears the freezing line will remain north of Harris County and the precipitation will remain liquid. This air mass is certainly very cold and adjustments will likely be needed over the next few days.

Thursday-Sunday:
Yet another storm approaches from the SW US with the cold air locked in place. Temperature should warm safely above freezing, but it will continue to be cold and miserable with increasing chances for widespread drizzle, fog, and rain. Lows will range from the 30’s to highs only in the 40’s Thursday and Friday. In fact many locations may see highs only in the 30’s on Thursday. The late week forecast will likely have some additional adjustments in the coming days as the latest GFS has backed off greatly on the amount of rain in the weekend time period.

[Heat Miser]

Yes, it sounds very, very familiar, Jeff. Felt great here yesterday in N/W Galveston County. So glad we have yet another cold front and drizzle to look forward to.

[Portastorm]

Models pretty much coming in line now regarding a significant and potentially dangerous ice/sleet event for Austin from Wednesday evening into Thursday. Models showing 0.10-0.25" of freezing rain followed by lighter amounts of sleet. Should that verify, it would likely shut down the town at least for a day.

I would expect that EWX would be issuing Winter Storm Watches in the next 12-18 hours.

[srainhoutx]

The latest 12Z MOS text data suggests freezing rain switching to a rain mixed with some snow at IAH early Thursday morning. Glad you folks along the Coast warmed up yesterday. It never got above the mid 50's N of I-10 yesterday.

[BlueJay]

It's still not warming up! We are currently at 52F. I was looking forward to it being a bit warmer today.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
250 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA
250 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT DUE TO A VERY COLD AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH AND THEN DROP BELOW FREEZING DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO LIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT AND A STRONG JET STREAM.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING LATER THURSDAY MORNING. BEFORE IT
ENDS...SOME PRECIPITATION MAY FALL WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
RESULTING IN A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. AS THE COLD AIR GETS
DEEPER...THE RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN MAY TRANSITION INTO A MIX OF
SLEET. RIGHT NOW THE BEST TIME FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM THURSDAY MAINLY FROM A COLLEGE STATION TO A
LIVINGSTON LINE. AREAS FROM MADISONVILLE TO CROCKETT MAY HAVE A
HIGHER CHANCE OF A WINTTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION SINCE TEMPERATURES
MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING SOONER.

OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN
INCH. ICE AND SLEET AMOUNTS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SINCE
THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES WITH HOW LONG THE AREA WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING. AT THIS TIME ICE AND SLEET AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 1
TENTH OF AN INCH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE
ICING OF ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF ICE COULD STILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
ON ROADS.

[Andrew]

Still a lot of uncertainty with this mid week artic front. Interesting to note that both the EURO and GFS are a good 6 to 8 hours faster than the NAM. Similar to last week I suspect models are underestimating the density and intensity of this cold air and I think our northern counties for SE Texas could see FROPA as early as 15-18z on Wednesday. Tomorrow evening will be very telling to take note of what upstream temps and dewpoints are and to ultimately see how well models are actually forecasting. After the front passes, isentropic uplift at the mid to upper levels will saturate a large part of the vertical profile. Pwat values of 1-1.5 inches Wednesday night suggest that the atmosphere could be moist enough for more than just mist. While a warm nose will still be present across much of the area, the upper level trough willl begin to exit through the area and slowly cool the whole profile. As a result towards the end of precip, sleet or possibly even some snow could be possible. This trough is going to produce a nice 50-60kt H5 jet over the region and both the GFS and NAM show some strong negative omega due to the convergence in the mid to lower levels. Furthermore, Wednesday night the right entrance region of the upper level jet will help to produce needed divergence in the upper levels to get some more lift. The only negative here for precipitation will exist at the lower levels due to a strong 1030-1040mb high settling in over the region. This subsidence and associated dry air could cause some issues at the surface (but at the same time if any evaporation occurs it will further cool the profile). I think the parameters for precipitation look better with this blast than the previous one, and with the snow pack further south this round, I think this event has more merit for producing wintry precipitation. Still a while to go until Wednesday and model inconsistencies are key here.

[unome]

I've been watching the forecast for Conroe & while it had "wintry stuff" possible for Wed/Thur earlier, now it doesn't ? I suppose that may change again, but it caught me by surprise

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... PTgXeE7ulc

[jasons2k]

NWS point-to-click forecast now shows a low of 28 for me on Thursday!!! 28?? Seriously? Just when I thought my plants were going to (barely) make it.

[Paul Robison]

Bad news for thunderstorm fans?

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS REMAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
ALLOWING FOR COOL DAMP CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPS HAVE NOT
RISEN MUCH BUT WITH THIN ENOUGH CLOUD COVER A FEW AREAS HAVE
REACHED THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST. AREAS FROM KCLL
TO KUTS REMAIN IN THE 40S. KCLL HAS NOT REACHED THE 50S SINCE
HAVING A HIGH OF 50F ON FEB 25. BEFORE THAT IT WAS FEB 22. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SW WHICH SHOULD PUSH INTO THE C PLAINS BY 12Z TUE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SFC CYCLOGENESIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND FOR SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO DEVELOP. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BRINGING BACK TEMPS IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
FORECAST WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISO
THUNDERSTORM. FORECAST SOUNDING STILL SHOW A DECENT CAP AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY SO AN ISO STORM MAYBE A STRETCH.

[Katdaddy]

Dense Fog Advisory in effect overnight until 10AM tomorrow morning.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
626 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...

.VISIBILITIES ALONG THE COAST WILL LOWER AS SEA FOG SPREADS INLAND
AND OVER THE INLAND AREAS AS WINDS BECOME MORE EAST AND
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND VISIBILITIES
WILL FALL. WIDESPREAD FOG BY MID EVENING WILL BLANKET THE REGION
WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES THAT WILL FALL TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALONG THE COAST VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN 1/8 OF
A MILE WILL BE COMMON TONIGHT. THE FOG SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MID
MORNING THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-030830-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FG.Y.0018.150303T0026Z-150303T1600Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
626 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY.

* EVENT...DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN 1/4 MILE.

* TIMING...BEGINNING NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD INLAND THROUGH LATE EVENING. IMPROVING
AFTER 9 AM.

* IMPACT...MOTORISTS SHOULD EXPECT DELAYS AND DRIVE WITH
ADDITIONAL CAUTION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

[BlueJay]

It's still not warming up! We are currently at 52F. I was looking forward to it being a bit warmer today.

We did warm up today to a toasty 55F.

I am in doubt about the temperature reaching 70+F tomorrow. We will see....

[Katdaddy]

Dense Fog Advisories continue this morning across a large portion of TX, LA, MS, and AL. Lights on low bean and safe traveling distances for your morning commute. Highs will reach the mid 70s under cloudy skies and slight rain chances. High will reach the low 70s tomorrow afternoon before strong Arctic front pushes through SE TX during the evening and off the coast by midnight. Some sleet mixed with rain is still possible N of Houston Thursday morning. Get ready for more Winter with a light freeze down to the coast possible.

[nuby3]

NWS has me down to 26 Friday am!! Impressive!

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Strong arctic front to move across the region late Wednesday.

Dense sea fog has spread inland overnight with current visibilities in the 1/8th to ½ mile range across the entire region. Fog will be slow to lift this morning and some locations may remain fairly foggy through 1000am-noon. Sea fog will plague the coastal waters and coastal counties nearly all day and into Wednesday as well.

Big story will be the arrival of another strong late season arctic air mass late Wednesday. Highs Wednesday will push into the mid 70’s with increasing chances for showers ahead of the frontal boundary. Front will reach College Station in the late afternoon and move off the coast by late evening. Strong cold air advection will result in temperatures rapidly falling into the 40’s and 30’s behind the boundary with gusty N winds. Rain will continue in the cold post frontal air mass.

Critical period continues to be Thursday morning as freezing surface temperatures move southward into the region and forecast soundings show some mid level cooling. Current model data suggests the freezing line will move southward to a College Station to Livingston line which would support a change of rain to freezing rain with possibly some sleet mixed in. Temperatures are only expected to fall into the 30-32 degree range which is very marginal for icing on bridges and overpasses especially after the warm Wednesday that will be had. South of this line precipitation will remain liquid with temperatures above freezing.

Very cold period Thursday-Saturday with a region wide freeze appearing likely on Friday morning. Temperatures could be well into the 20’s for many locations with average lows in the 25-30 degree range. Highs on Thursday will likely remain in the 30’s and in the mid 40’s on Friday under mainly cloudy skies.

Weekend forecast will feature a cold Saturday with highs only in the 40’s followed by a warm up on Sunday into the lower 60’s. GFS and ECMWF models are at odds on how to handle the next storm system over the Baja region this weekend with the ECWMF wet and colder for the weekend and the GFS drier. Low confidence in this part of the forecast with respect to both rain chances and temperatures.