February: Tracking Rain/Wintry Mix & Arctic Front

[unome]

looks like about a 20 degree drop in temps with the front passing, per NWS at the moment

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=brief_support

Conroe

[Ptarmigan]

Generally above 5000 feet above the surface means elevated.

When that front arrives tomorrow and temperatures crash into the low 40's it is going to feel a lot different than the mid to upper 70's of yesterday. I see the computer models are still struggling to resolve the shortwave dropping SE across the Great Basin this morning and how much shearing out the Baja upper low actually happens. We went from rain chances to almost nada in 36 hours. I just saw a video from New England where Cantore was live on air with thundersnow again. Looks like a big busted forecast up in Boston. It appears they may have surpassed 80 inches of snow in 24 days at Logan Airport. Impressive to say the least.

Very snowy up in Boston.



Third snowiest. Only 1995-1996 and 1993-1994 is snowier. Those winters are either El Nino, La Nina, or Neutral.

[Katdaddy]

Strong cold on the way but no Winter precip:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
505 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-171115-
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-
LIBERTY-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
505 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S THIS MORNING WILL FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER 40S BY AFTERNOON. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. NORTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO CONROE TO CLEVELAND LINE.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

[srainhoutx]

The Artic Front is nearing SE Texas. Austin dropped 30 degrees in two hours from the upper 60's to the mid to upper 30's. It appears the cold front is stronger than the models suggested. Take your coat today. You will need it by Noon.

02162015 13Z_metars_abi.gif

[texoz]

The Artic Front is nearing SE Texas. Austin dropped 30 degrees in two hours from the upper 60's to the mid to upper 30's. It appears the cold front is stronger than the models suggested. Take your coat today. You will need it by Noon.

Re: stronger front that models suggested. I don't have access to the forecast yesterday, but it seems like this front is about 10 degrees colder than forecast? It's 38 degrees currently at 8am.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Impressive cold front moving across TX this morning.

700am temperatures ranged from 67 at La Grange to 46 at Giddings and 35 at Waco. Frontal passage will feature a solid 20 degree temperature drop. Radar data clearly shows the front nearly College Station and will be reaching the Houston metro area by 1100am to noon and off the coast by mid afternoon. Temperatures will rapidly fall into the 40’s behind the front and into the 30’s by late afternoon with strong north winds.

A line of showers is likely with the front as strong frontal lift encounters deeper moisture over SE TX. Not expecting much more than .25-.50 of an inch of rainfall. Showers and drizzle will linger into the overnight hours ahead of the main trough axis expected to cross the area early Tuesday. Again the main impact will be the significant temperature change.

Strong cold air advection and very cold upstream temperatures support lowering lows tonight a few degrees below guidance which may put the area from College Station to Huntsville near freezing. Could continue to see some light rain and drizzle overnight across the area and with temperatures up north falling to near freezing will need to keep an eye out for any minor impacts. Current thinking is that drizzle will be light and temperatures just near freezing…and given the warm ground from late do not think much if any impacts.

Clearing late Tuesday after a cold mid February day with highs in the 40’s. Lows Wednesday morning may fall to near freezing northeast of a line from College Station to Liberty.

Warming trend begins late Wednesday as southerly winds return and temperatures rebound into the 60’s on Thursday and 70’s Friday into the weekend. Moisture slowly increases Friday-Sunday with slight rain chances mainly for streamer showers moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico.

[BlueJay]

Oh-It's still winter. It was 66F at 6:30 this morning but now its down to a gray & rainy 48F. I hope we can forgo the temperatures in the 20F range.

[srainhoutx]

EWX reports rain transitioning to sleet across the NW Hill Country/Edwards Plateau back to the Junction area.

[unome]

getting chilly...

I like the new MesoWest site, but not the temps at the moment... http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=6&ce ... opacity=70

[srainhoutx]

Reports of snow flurries mixing with light rain in Ft Bend County. Also getting a couple of sleet pellets in NW Harris County at this time mixed with some very light rain.

[srainhoutx]

The Updated Climate Predication Center Day 8+ Analogs and Day 6 to 10 Day Outlook sure do not look like any Spring like weather is returning anytime soon. Must be getting close to Rodeo time...

02162015 CPC Day 8+ Analogs 610analog_off.gif

02162015 CPC Day 6 to 10 Temps 610temp_new.gif

10222015 CPC Precip 814prcp_new.gif

[srainhoutx]

Very light sleet and snow mix reported S of Temple now.

[Ptarmigan]

The Updated Climate Predication Center Day 8+ Analogs and Day 6 to 10 Day Outlook sure do not look like any Spring like weather is returning anytime soon. Must be getting close to Rodeo time...

02162015 CPC Day 8+ Analogs 610analog_off.gif

02162015 CPC Day 6 to 10 Temps 610temp_new.gif

10222015 CPC Precip 814prcp_new.gif

Late February and early March of 2002 had some hard freezes. 1993 was the start of the Superstorm.

[redneckweather]

Got sleet falling here in central Montgomery County.

[Katdaddy]

A cold February morning across SE TX with overcast skies and temps in the mid 30s. Some light snow being reported across the Hill Country this morning which continues to dissipate as it pushes SE. Clearing skies begin later this afternoon resulting in another cold night with lows in the low to mid 30s except near the coast where temps will drop into the low 40s. Warmer weather returns quickly with low to mid 70s Friday and Saturday along with clouds and a 30% chance of showers. Another cold front early next week.

[Kludge]

Light sleet just began in northern Grimes county.

[srainhoutx]

Light sleet with some occasional grauple mixed in across NW Harris County at this time.

[ticka1]

Email from Jeff Lindner - Tuesday morning 2/17/2015

Public reports of light sleet and snow flurries across Grimes, Montgomery, and NW Harris Counties since about 700am this morning.

Radar shows increasing light activity approaching from Colorado and Austin Counties currently and some of this may be reaching the ground in the form of light sleet and very light snow. Surface temperatures range from 32 at College Station to 33 at Conroe to 36 at Sugar Land with most of the area above freezing. This should result in any sleet or snow melting on contact with the ground with no impacts expected.

Precipitation should end by late morning with temperatures slowly warming into the 40’s.

[tireman4]

Enjoy the day folks. The week will warm up with 70's by the weekend.

[ticka1]

Another email update from Jeff Lindner @9:00 a.m. CST

Band of sleet and light snow moving into the US 59 corridor. Law enforcement and public reports light snow along US 290 and SH 249 in the Tomball and Cypress area and along I-10 in Katy and Fulshear.

Radar shows higher reflectivity which is likely slightly heavier sleet/snow over NW Fort Bend County moving toward Sugar Land and SW Harris County.

Band of precipitation should exit SE TX in the next 2-3 hours, but until then light sleet and snow is possible across the region…no accumulation is expected with temperatures at or above freezing and warm ground.