January-Foggy Mornings/Cool & Cloudy To The Month

[jasons2k]

My thermometer says we're currently at 37F. I know that my weather information is not official but I like the sound of 37F better than 32F!

Yeah, so shallow that evaporative cooling may be a non-issue completely. That's what happens when you get SW flow aloft this far south.

[Portastorm]

A very light mist was falling in downtown Austin at lunch. Returns showing up on the EWX radar but obviously much of it is evaporating in the dry lower layer. Man, the GFS model really blew it today. Forecasted a high in the low 40s for Austin and it was supposed to be 36 at lunch. Try 29 degrees downtown and 25-27 in the outlying areas with thickening cloud cover. Not even close.

[nuby3]

Getting spotty light rain showers Nw of san Antonio near pipe creek. Will be in the area for a race this weekend

[srainhoutx]

Virtually all the 12Z guidance, both deterministic and meso have light precipitation breaking out across Central/SE/E Texas into SW Louisiana tomorrow as frontogenetic lift increases as the front nears the Gulf Coast.

[srainhoutx]

Getting spotty light rain showers Nw of san Antonio near pipe creek. Will be in the area for a race this weekend

Seeing reports of this as well via NWSchat.

[srainhoutx]

Seeing some reports of sleet near San Marcos

[srainhoutx]

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
308 PM EST THU JAN 08 2015

VALID 00Z FRI JAN 09 2015 - 00Z MON JAN 12 2015

DAY 2...

...CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST TX/UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
THE MODELS FORECAST A MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO PROGRESS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST/NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARDS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. IN ADVANCE OF
THE WAVE....MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FL ADVECTS BOTH WARMTH AND
MOISTURE OVER AN EXISTING SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS.
T AND CENTRAL TX BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL TX...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB
WARMING TO OR ABV FREEZING...SUPPORTING MELTING SNOW TO RAIN AND
RESULTING IN FREEZING RAIN WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.
THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS GENERALLY WEAK...SO ICE
AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES...WITH NEAR 0.10
INCHES IN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHERE AN INCH
OR SO OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE COLUMN CAN NO
LONGER SUPPORT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...RESULTING IN A CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN.


DAY 3...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION OVER SHALLOW COLD LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO
ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE REGION SO THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TO
DETERMINE HOW LONG THE SUBFREEZING AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE
PRECIP SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST.

THE 12Z NAM WAS AN OUTLIER WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE AND SLOWER
MOVING 700 MB WAVE WHICH RESULTED IN GREATER ICING ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. THE 00-12Z ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
LONGER WAVELENGTH TROUGH AND LOW QPF WHERE IS IT IS COLD ENOUGH
FOR ICING...SO MORE WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THESE SOLUTIONS.


PETERSEN

[Andrew]

Still seeing a large dewpoint depression over much of the area. There will be a good amount of evaporation before any reaches the ground.

[srainhoutx]

Ice crystals reported falling in the Austin area by the public

[harpman]

Ice crystals are otherwise known as snow. How is that possible?

[srainhoutx]

Ice crystals are otherwise known as snow. How is that possible?

Sometimes the Balcones Escarpment better known as the Hill Country can generate just enough lift if the winds are just right. We see this with enhanced rain/storms during the Spring and Summer months at times.

[harpman]

Wow. Also of note, there are light snow flurries in Jacksonville, Fl. right now.

[srainhoutx]

Wow. Also of note, there are light snow flurries in Jacksonville, Fl. right now.

Yep. Our native Houstonian and KHOU Board member now a transplant TV Pro Met in Jacksonville CandyCane is going nuts on Facebook about this.

[harpman]

Jacksonville getting snow, now I REALLY feel cheated!!!! LOL! We are monitoring for the possibility of a little sleet over here tomorrow.

[srainhoutx]

Ocean enhanced snow is not all that uncommon, but in Jacksonville, FL...probably a record for the date.

01082015 2030Z Jacksonville GOES20302015008bi6E69.jpg

[Andrew]

Interesting to note that closer to home, most globals and hi-res models have overestimated rebound temps for this afternoon. KCLL is currently at 35 degrees with an expected high of 38. Both overcast and intensity of the cold air has been underestimated. This will be important overnight and tomorrow.

[Portastorm]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
325 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-082330-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
325 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015

...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THERE ARE THREE POSSIBLE ROUNDS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING
TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 71 LATE TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR NEAR
FREEZING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET FOR
THE HILL COUNTRY...AUSTIN METRO AREA...SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LA GRANGE.
ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AT THE SAME TIME. A MIXTURE OR
RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES
FREEZING RAIN COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS FIRST
ROUND WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.

THE SECOND ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S AND WILL BE
SLOW TO RISE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE
BELOW FREEZING AND FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RISE ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT FALL BACK TO NEAR
FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A THIRD ROUND OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT DROP BELOW FREEZING. ALL
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO ELEVATED
SURFACES AND OVERPASSES. HOWEVER...IF THE FORECASTED TEMPERATURES
TREND COLDER BY A FEW DEGREES...THEN A PROLONGED WINTER WEATHER
EVENT WOULD BE LIKELY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THE CHANCES
OF THIS OCCURRING ARE STILL MINIMAL BUT RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting to note that closer to home, most globals and hi-res models have overestimated rebound temps for this afternoon. KCLL is currently at 35 degrees with an expected high of 38. Both overcast and intensity of the cold air has been underestimated. This will be important overnight and tomorrow.

It's going to be a very close call from Sealy to just N of Waller into the Conroe/Huntsville area and on E into E Texas. Something tells me we may wake up tomorrow and see further adjustments across all of our Region expect for the Coastal tier of Counties.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
349 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-091200-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
349 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015

...WINTER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY
MORNING...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE ARE FRIDAY MORNING AT A TIME WHEN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR FREEZING. BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
BELOW FREEZING WILL FREEZE ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY MORNING ARE ALONG AND NORTH
OF A CALDWELL TO LIVINGSTON LINE WITH MADISONVILLE...CROCKETT AND
TRINITY AREAS MOST LIKELY. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ICING OF
ELEVATED SURFACES BUT MOST LIKELY JUST A LIGHT GLAZE ON GRASSY
AREAS AND TREES.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPING
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO CALDWELL TO
LIVINGSTON LINE. MOST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE WARMER PARTS OF
THE DAY /WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING/...SO MAIN IMPACTS
FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR OVER ELEVATED SURFACES IF
ANY IMPACTS DO DEVELOP.

SOUTHEAST TEXAS RESIDENTS AND THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
OR WHO HAVE TRAVEL PLANS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE
WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION BY FOLLOWING LOCAL
MEDIA...LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...VISITING OUR WEBSITE

[brooksgarner]

Just got a report of snow flurries on St. Simons Island, Georgia! Ocean effect... first memory of that since 1989...

Okay, so what do you guys think about this wet bulbing potential. With 40°F with an 11° dew point, if it starts raining we're talking about a roughly 8-10° temperature drop potential... pretty close.