December 2014: New Year's Eve Wintry Mix Possible

[Texaspirate11]

Yes my son who is coming in from Minneapolis will love this 80 degree Christmas weather.
I'm loving it...

[redneckweather]

80 degree weather just went bye bye.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:


More seasonal weather has returned to the region following a cold frontal passage late yesterday.

Fast progressive flow aloft will result in rapid weather changes over the next 24-36 hours. Surface high pressure will move eastward today allowing winds to turn from N to NE and ENE by this evening. The next storm system along the west coast currently will move inland into the SW US tomorrow and across TX on Friday. Surface cool front is stalling over the NW Gulf waters this morning and will begin to move northward as a warm front on Wednesday. 850mb flow becomes southerly late tonight and this will advect a cloud deck inland from the SW across the region as mid level moisture overruns the surface cold dome.

Wednesday will be mostly cloudy and cool with developing light rain and showers from SW to NE. Surface warm front will begin to move northward on Wednesday with fog and low clouds developing north of the boundary. Warm air advection pattern above the surface cold dome will be maximized just west of SE TX Wednesday afternoon and this is where the best rain chances will likely be found (Matagorda Bay to near College Station).

On Thursday the incoming storm system drops into northern MX with surface low pressure developing across SW TX. Warm front will attempt to move inland, but I have my doubts on just how far it may make it. North of the boundary fog and light rain with cool temperatures will be the norm while south of the boundary temperatures will warm into the 70’s and partly to mostly cloudy skies and a passing shower. Best thought at the moment is that the boundary may at least make it to the coast, but maybe not as far inland as US 59 on Thursday.

Main weather event penciled in for Friday as both surface and upper level storm cross TX. Warm front may surge inland late Thursday into early Friday morning resulting in a narrow band of higher low level instability near the coast early Friday. Strong and widespread lift will approach the region from the SW Friday morning into the early afternoon hours. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region Friday morning into the afternoon. Current thinking is that instability is too low to mention any severe threat, but will need to keep a close eye at the coastal locations which may be warm sectored Friday morning. PWS increase to near 1.5 inches which is fairly high for mid December and would support a heavy rainfall threat, but cell motions look fairly fast and the overall system speed is progressive.

This storm system should exit to the east late Friday with possibly a clear and cool Saturday in place. Some indications that moisture may be trapped in the frontal passage inversion on Saturday keeping skies cloudy for the first part of the day. NW winds will bring in a much colder air mass by Saturday with lows in the 30’s and 40’s and highs in the 50’s. Next storm system rapidly approaches by Sunday and Monday with clouds increasing again by late Sunday and a slight chance of rain by Monday.

[wxman57]

I made a couple of meteograms off of last night's GFS runs, though I wouldn't trust the GFS past 5-7 days. Euro indicates 12-18F above normal on Christmas Day, while the GFS is close to normal. Chance of a light freeze after Christmas. Nothing as cold as mid November through the end of the year:

[redneckweather]

I was just coming in here to mention that wxman. All I see is normal to above normal temps through Christmas and no real cold air anywhere as we head towards the New Year. I'm trying to figure out where all this cold/wintry weather talk is coming from?

[srainhoutx]

I was just coming in here to mention that wxman. All I see is normal to above normal temps through Christmas and no real cold air anywhere as we head towards the New Year. I'm trying to figure out where all this cold/wintry weather talk is coming from?

One run from the GFS yesterday showing 1-3 inches of snow was enough to get some chatter going. All I see via the ensembles which tend to be much more reliable than any individual operational model run that changes every 6 to 12 hours and offers a different solution each run is pretty much useless beyond a day or two. Those ensembles do suggest a West Coast Ridge develops building into Alaska and Western Canada beyond Christmas, but even the ensembles are struggling with the Pacific pattern and the sensible weather we may expect. There is a 180kt to 190kt jet screaming E across the Central Pacific that spells computer model volatility and a lot of flip flopping. The GFS is useless in my opinion and even the new upgraded parallel GFS is scoring very poorly. We will see what happens later this week and if the computer models are even somewhat close to the 1-3 inches of rain they are spitting out. My hunch is those amounts are way over done across Texas. I am just hoping these storm systems bring snow to the Northern New Mexico Mountains were I'll be a month from now on vacation. The snow and cold can stay in the Mountains were it belongs as far as I'm concerned..

[BlueJay]

Thanks for these weather updates srain and wxman57. I will stay tuned...

Srain - I hope that you do get some snow in the mountains.

[srainhoutx]

Which 'reliable' computer model would you trust trying to determine what Christmas weather may hold for our Region?

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[snowman65]

How about I just ask my Magic 8 ball and let you know the outcome???...lol

[srainhoutx]

On a more worthy near term note, The WPC is still forecasting a wave of low pressure developing Thursday night into Friday with some welcomed rainfall....if they are correct.

[snowman65]

I asked if it will be warm or cold for Christmas in Texas....lol

[BlueJay]

Very funny snowman65! I would say this the 8-Ball forecast is highly reliable!

I do hope that srain is right about the rain in the forecast. Although we started out December 2014 getting a healthy 0.89 inches it would be quite nice to add to that amount. I'm sure some of you have not even gotten as much as this so far this month. Feeling kind of parched...

[srainhoutx]

And the Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 11+ Analogs are advertising some impressive dates of yesteryear that will send a chill down the spine of many old timers around here...

[Katdaddy]

1.24" so far in League City with heavy rain in progress.

[ticka1]

Thanks for getting the boards back up and running! Miss my KHOU weather forums!!! Got alot of rain overnight and this morning at the house - driving to downtown to work was a miserable ride. Hope the rain stops soon.

[srainhoutx]

Over 3 inches of rain here in NW Harris County so far. The 12Z GFS and parallel GFS are both suggesting a strong cold front arrives on the 27th and all sort of wintry mischief develops across much of Texas as New Years Eve nears and extends into the first days of January 2015.

GFS:

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Parallel GFS:

[ronyan]

1.36" inches here in coastal Brazoria county since yesterday.

Srain, the ensembles for the 27th-4th look very favorable for cold throughout most of the US. Not to mention the incredible analog list that the CPC turned out yesterday with Dec 1989 and 1983. I think we could be looking at something special but still too early to judge the magnitude of it. It looks like a safe bet that winter will be returning to the CONUS at the end of the month and into early Jan.

I've got a new IP capable weather station being delivered today, plan to put my PWS on wunderground.com soon.

[Heat Miser]

Winter 83 is one I'd just assume forget. It was miserable and, at least in Friendswood, we got no snow or sleet. If I recall correctly we only had miserable cold and freezing drizzle at times. 89 was a nice snow event, but man did it get cold after the snow. Tried to finish up my Christmas shopping that day and it was no fun to drive in.
Glad to see the forum back up.

[snowman65]

I hope yall are right about the return of winter because December has been depressing. I will be in Austin Dec 31-Jan 2 so I hope something happens while I'm there!!

[srainhoutx]

Here is the CPC Day 11+ GEFS Super Ensemble centered on December 30th. Note the general storminess pattern across the Central and Eastern Pacific and streaming across our Region as we end the month.