December 2014: New Year's Eve Wintry Mix Possible

[srainhoutx]

Bring it on,i'm ready for some winter weather.

It's looking a bit more likely that we will return to a colder and stormier regime right in time for our climatologically favored coldest time of year.

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12142014 12Z GFS 384 gfs_z500a_nhem_49.png

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[sambucol]

Might the possibility of snow be in our forecast?

[srainhoutx]

Might the possibility of snow be in our forecast?

Remember we never forecast snow in our local forecast until we 'see' the flakes falling. That said the pattern should it develop could offer a lot of interesting weather over the hectic Holiday period for a large portion of the US.

[sambucol]

Might the possibility of snow be in our forecast?

Remember we never forecast snow in our local forecast until we 'see' the flakes falling. That said the pattern should it develop could offer a lot of interesting weather over the hectic Holiday period for a large portion of the US.

I'm good with that! I'm looking forward to the cold air getting here.

[ticka1]

Might the possibility of snow be in our forecast?

Remember we never forecast snow in our local forecast until we 'see' the flakes falling. That said the pattern should it develop could offer a lot of interesting weather over the hectic Holiday period for a large portion of the US.

I'm good with that! I'm looking forward to the cold air getting here.

i would be HAPPY with cold cold temps for christmas until after march 20th!!!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z parallel GFS suggests an impressive 1056mb+ Arctic High pressure cell dropping S from Western Canada in the longer range solutions. The 12Z GEFS ensemble mean and temperature anomalies agree that most of the Lower 48 into Mexico will plunge into a very cold pattern almost Coast to Coast.

[ticka1]

The 12Z parallel GFS suggests an impressive 1056mb+ Arctic High pressure cell dropping S from Western Canada in the longer range solutions. The 12Z GEFS ensemble mean and temperature anomalies agree that most of the Lower 48 into Mexico will plunge into a very cold pattern almost Coast to Coast.

These types of model runs are music to my ears!!! Now just to hace the scenario happen and our weather be a real winter!!

[sambucol]

I agree with Ticka!!!

[BlueJay]

I'm still enjoying our "sensible" weather!

[cperk]

I'm still enjoying our "sensible" weather!

80 degrees in December is not that sensible to me.

[ticka1]

I'm still enjoying our "sensible" weather!

80 degrees in December is not that sensible to me.

Amen .... bring on the artic blasts!!!!

[sambucol]

I'm still enjoying our "sensible" weather!

80 degrees in December is not that sensible to me.

Amen .... bring on the artic blasts!!!!

Another amen from me!

[BlueJay]

It's nice to see that this sensible warm December weather brings out all the nice angels on this forum!
Enjoy the evening everyone!

[kitkat4me]

I am currently in Edmonton, Canada and will be traveling to Houston next week. I "troll" the forums from here.

I notice that you are mentioning that it could be "cold" for Houston for the coming Holidays. Yes, I know it will not be as cold there as it has been here this month. We are finally above freezing for the first time this month. And the snows melting, but we will be getting some more. But, back to the point, what type of weather and coldness, if even a word, do you expect for Houston. I am trying to figure out what to pack and don't want to pack the wrong thing nor take extra suitcases of clothes if not needed.

Any advice would be appreciated..

wish you a happy holidays from the cold northern where the snow starting piling up back in November and will be glad to not see snow and ice for two weeks.

[Ptarmigan]

I'm still enjoying our "sensible" weather!

80 degrees in December is not that sensible to me.

80 degrees in December is unusual.

[srainhoutx]

Late evening briefing from Jeff:


Frequent weather changes coming to TX over the next several days.

 

Initial storm system moving into the central plains this evening with a trailing line of thunderstorms into N TX and scattered showers in the warm air advection regime over SE TX. Main dynamics are well north of the region and the surface cold front is well west of the area over W TX. Dry air is noted above the surface helping to keep rain showers scattered and light. Will likely see a slight increase in shower activity as the cool front crosses the area tomorrow afternoon. Post frontal air mass is Pacific in nature so only a slight cool down…or back to near average from the  above average warmth of late.

 

Tuesday will by partly cloudy and cool with lows in the 40’s and highs in the 60’s (near normal).  

 

Southern stream jet will remain very active with next upstream storm system rapidly approaching from the west by mid to late week. Surface front over the NW Gulf will bring to return northward as a warm front on Wednesday. Expect warm air to overrun the cool surface dome by late Tuesday with clouds increasing from SW to NE late Tuesday and light rain and fog developing north of the warm front on Wednesday. Models are usually too fast in their northward transport of the warm air mass in such situations and think this will be no different with the front slowly moving inland late Wednesday.

 

Region is warm sectored Thursday and Friday as strong storm system approaches from the WSW out of NE MX on Friday. Expect increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday with the best chances arriving on Friday. Could see some heavy rainfall Thursday and Friday with good moisture advection. Instability looks limited, so not expecting any severe weather. Temperatures will run above normal again Thursday and Friday with lows in the 60’s and highs in the 70’s. Post frontal air mass behind this storm will be of more Canadian air with temperatures falling into the 30’s and 40’s for lows and 50’s for highs by next weekend. GFS suggest low level moisture may be trapped in the frontal inversion next weekend and this would result in a cold air advection low level stratus deck and keep highs even colder than currently suggested.

 

Christmas Week:

Third storm system appears to arrive 22-24 Dec with another shot for showers and thunderstorms. This storm system however appears to help buckle the upper air pattern with ridging building deep into Alaska and a large downstream trough carving out across much of the US. Bitter cold air mass currently in place over Siberia (-40 to -50F) may shift across the north pole and into NW Canada as the ridge builds into Alaska. This would place extremely cold Siberian air in place to be unleashed southward into the US following the early Christmas week storm system. Forecast models have been hinting at enough upper air pattern amplification during the period between Christmas and New Year’s to suggest at least some arctic air could be in store for the area. Additionally, the southern stream will remain active with storm systems roughly every 2-4 days across TX. While this pattern change is still over 7 days away, operational and ensemble support has been increasing over the last few days and much colder and stormy pattern appears increasingly likely by Christmas week and into early 2015. Main questions over the next several days will be if the coldest air comes straight southward or glances TX and heads more for the east coast and if enough cold air will be in place with any of the storm system to produce any winter precipitation.

[Katdaddy]

An active ending to the week ahead. From this mornings Houston-Galveston AFD:

THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ON TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT OVER TX
FOR FRIDAY. THE PROBLEMS IS THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON WHERE
THE UPPER LOW TRACKS. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW COMPARED TO THE ECMWF (WHICH IS SLOWER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW). RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MORE FROM
THUR INTO FRI WITH 60/70 POPS ON FRI. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WITH
ITS TRACK THEN HOUSTON AREA WILL NEED TO PREPARE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER FRI MORNING WHICH WILL THEN TRACK
THROUGH S LA AND INTO MS/AL. ON THE OTHER HAND IF THE GFS IS RIGHT
THEN HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER WILL TRACK ACROSS N TX TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH. PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL POSSIBLY REACH 1.5 INCHES FRI
AND ALSO HAVE INSTABILITY OF 800-1000 J/KG. GIVEN STRONG SHEAR
EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM...NEED TO KEEP SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND
HEAVY RAIN IN MIND GOING FORWARD WITH FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.

[srainhoutx]

The global ensembles are suggesting an active pattern as multiple short waves embedded within fairly quick moving troughs off the Pacific traverse our Region into Christmas Eve. The next strong storm system arrives Wednesday into Friday bringing heavy mountain snow across New Mexico on Thursday and depending on the eventual track, heavy rainfall across portions of Texas into Louisiana. The 00Z OP Euro is the southern most tracking solution with the 5H closed low tracking across N Mexico, Del Rio and on E to Lufkin while the GFS suggests the upper low crossing NM, Childress and into NE Oklahoma on Friday. If the southern track were to verify, strong to possibly severe storms may be possible across Austin and Houston Friday. A more northern track would favor the Dallas/Shreveport area for stronger storms. This system has a bit more colder air to work with, so the dynamics appear a bit better for heavy rainfall.


An even stronger storm looks likely near Christmas Eve with even colder air in place as the pattern begins to transition. Being more than a week out it is too soon to speculate on the finer details with a wave currently over Eurasia heading E.

The longer range ensembles are in good agreement that a whole sale pattern change is ahead for the period between Christmas and New Years Day. It does appear we are transitioning to a +PDO/+PNA/-EPO/-AO and possibly a -NAO blocking pattern as we near the climatological favored coldest time of year for our Region as January 2015 begins. This sort of pattern is very similar to what we witnessed during the mid November timeframe when our early Fall season Arctic Outbreak occurred, so it warrants monitoring during the hectic Holiday period quickly approaching. Stay Tuned!

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[BlueJay]

Everything is awesome.

Today is awesome!

[dljones33]

[quote="kitkat4me"]But, back to the point, what type of weather and coldness, if even a word, do you expect for Houston. I am trying to figure out what to pack and don't want to pack the wrong thing nor take extra suitcases of clothes if not needed.

Any advice would be appreciated..

quote]

I'm NOT a meteorologist but having living in Houston the better part of 40 years I can confidently say that whenever we have a cold snap (as predicted) it is usually cold, wet, miserable and rains for several days lol