December 2014: New Year's Eve Wintry Mix Possible

[srainhoutx]

What a difference a day makes. It was 80F yesterday at this time in NW Harris County and now it is 48F. Brrr!!

[tireman4]

I love it sir. My run at 5:15 pm will love it.

[srainhoutx]

The guidance is trending toward a solution that may bring a Southern tracking storm across Northern Mexico into the Southern Rockies and the Southern Plains this coming weekend. The Euro is a bit stronger with the shortwave and the upper air disturbance and suggests some cooler air will push S across the Plains in the wake of the storm system. The Weather Prediction Center is increasing rainfall potential, so it will likely be our next weather maker after we warm up a bit this week and a return flow off the Gulf becomes established after todays cold front retreats back N on Tuesday night into Wednesday. This sort of pattern is very El Nino like, so it is possible we will see similar tracking storm systems as we head deeper into Winter. It is also noteworthy that the West Coast will benefit from such a pattern and will go along way to helping in the multi year drought that has plagued California.

12012014 12Z Euro f144.gif

12012014 12Z Euro f168.gif

12012014 12Z 168 ecmwf_mslpa_namer_8.png

12012014 20Z 7 Day QPF p168i.gif

[BlueJay]

I am so grateful that we had such perfect Chamber of Commerce weather for our Thanksgiving weekend. This rainy, cold, yukky afternoon would not have been so pleasant. Sorry tireman4, but I don't prefer to take my walks on days like this, but I hope you have a nice run this afternoon.

We are down to 46F with 0.84 inches of rain so far today.

[jasons2k]

The past week was wonderful but I hate this cold weather. With a passion. Winced in pain/disgust when I left the office and stepped outside into the chilly nastiness. Almost time to hit the treadmill so I can sweat...after my feet thaw out a bit.

[dljones33]

So what is the chance for some actual winter weather, say snow, anytime this month? Cold rain and wind is not my idea of a good time weather wise. I know Houstonians can't drive on snow and ice, but hey, they can't drive properly on any day of the year!

[skidog40]

I noticed that the trees are shedding their leaves quickly and the backtracking of low temperatures says something wicked this way comes. You ever thought why trees loses their leaves, maybe because they are trying to protect their roots from a freeze and also the leaves won't retain moisture so when it does freeze the tree will not burden itself. when weather patterns can't be predicted the earth is in transition. (ice age)

[BlueJay]

I can report .88 inches so far today. Did anyone else receive any measurable rain?

[Katdaddy]

Only .24" in League City.

[jasons2k]

Only a trace here.

[srainhoutx]

Around 0.20, but honestly didn't look closely in a nasty cold drizzle...

[srainhoutx]

The Southern jet stream looks to be very active as a long fetch of moisture/disturbances ride East across Northern Mexico into Texas during the next week or so. The forecast is looking very damp and dreary in the extended range. We typically see this sort of pattern in January/February in low end El Nino years, so expect more clouds than sun into next week. Higher elevations of the Southern Rockies could see a lot of snow as well. Regarding the Typhoon, the Euro trended slightly further N overnight and is likely the outlier, so as a weakness develops N of the Typhoon in about 4 days, recurve to the NNW to N is the most likely solution and as it transitions to extra tropical, changes may lie ahead as the system wraps up near the Aleutian Islands in about 10 days.

[snowman65]

Sooo...is the predicted "much colder/wetter than average" winter for this region headed toward the big bust?

[srainhoutx]

Sooo...is the predicted "much colder/wetter than average" winter for this region headed toward the big bust?

Not at all. In fact things are looking right on schedule as of December 2nd...

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:


Zonal (west to east) upper air flow across the country will lead to mostly cloudy and dreary conditions across SE TX for the next several days.

Cold front from Monday remains stalled over the Gulf waters this morning and has shown little attempt to return northward. Should start to see the boundary begin to move back northward later today with warm air widespread south of the boundary. North of the boundary low clouds, fog, and drizzle will continue with fog likely thickening from the coast northward as the boundary approaches from the south. Temperatures will remain on the cool side north of the frontal boundary with highs today in the 50’s and 60’s.

Warm front moves northward on Thursday in response to lowering surface pressures over west TX. This will result in warm air advection and a return of a warm and muggy air mass to the region. Rain chances will start to increase on Thursday (20-30%) for showers moving inland off the Gulf of Mexico. Short wave disturbance in the flow aloft will move across the region on Friday and this may be the next best chance of rainfall. Models show moisture levels pooling over the region Friday afternoon which even a chance for a few thunderstorms. May also see sea fog develop by late Thursday into Friday with warm dewpoints (60’s) spreading over the mid to upper 50 degree nearshore water temperatures.

Weak cool front attempts to slide into the region on Saturday, but it is questionable how far south that boundary makes it before it stalls. This will only help to continue the cloudy and damp conditions through the weekend and into early next week. May see increased rain chances again Sunday into Monday with another disturbance aloft moving over the region. No big cold weather outbreaks noted for the next 7-10 days with temperatures running near to above normal for early December.

[BlueJay]

Thanks for the report jeff and srain.

Happy Dance!

[Ptarmigan]

Even the coldest winters have warm periods courtesy of zonal upper air flow. I have seen it like in 1972-1973, 1976-1977, 1977-1978, and 1983-1984.

[srainhoutx]

The general fast zonal flow off the Pacific Ocean looks to continue with a couple of Pacific cold fronts pushing in after each disturbance associated with southern stream storm track. Our next weather maker is over Arizona this morning and should reach Texas on Friday. Rain and elevated storm chance increase on Friday as this shortwave nears. Another upper air disturbance is following quickly on its heels and should arrive on Sunday.

[sambucol]

Any idea when our next shot of cold air will be?

[srainhoutx]

Any idea when our next shot of cold air will be?

The earliest would likely be near or just beyond Christmas. This pattern does not show any sign of changing other than a quick shot or two of colder air that quickly moves off to the East. That said it does look active with plentiful chances of rain and for those that may have travel plans to the ski areas of New Mexico and Colorado, this active pattern bodes well for snowfall across those ski areas.