Thanksgiving weather pattern

[snowman65]

Aside from next weeks cold front, weather looks to be stabilizing for our region over the next 6-8 days following. Let's now focus on the weather pattern for Thanksgiving week as it is a big travel week. I know it's still a few weeks away but looking for "hints" or anything else that may shed some light on what to expect....thanks!

[srainhoutx]

An early look at the longer range parallel and old GFS suggests we may see a somewhat stormy pattern across the Plains on East with a couple of rather potent storms tracking across the Southern Plains as the Pacific becomes active bringing moisture inland into the West and wrapping up storm systems along the lee side of the Southern Rockies. It does not look nearly as cold as what we've been experiencing, but each storm that marches E does bring down shots of cold air in from Canada in its wake. Canada looks to remain very cold during the upcoming transitional pattern from a deep Central/Eastern trough to a more zonal flow we typically see with an El Nino developing. The ensemble guidance generally agrees with the pattern expected during the long Thanksgiving Holidays. We will look at the sensible weather expected across much of the US as well since many folks will have travel plans beyond Texas during the Thanksgiving timeframe.

[SLM87TX]

Can we talk Christmas weather? White Christmas anyone?

[BlueJay]

Let's talk turkey day weather first.
I am hoping for a cool, clear, crisp Chamber of Commerce type of day to help us celebrate this very special day of thanksgiving. (I would also be thrilled with a hot and humid day, though!)

[dljones33]

I don't think we had a freeze in Cypress just yet though we did drag in the plants. The cold north wind died down and there was cloud cover. I'm not a big fan of cold north winds. In the mean time, I'm hoping Thanksgiving will be a bit more moderate. Cold, but not overly so. Alas, I discovered my car heater was on the blink on the coldest day so far lol. Thankfully, I have heated seats. A clear, crisp Chamber of Commerce type day for Thanksgiving would be more than welcome. A White Christmas would be welcome as well though I don't think we stand a chance here in Southeast Texas.

[sambucol]

I'm hoping for a cold Thanksgiving week!

[dljones33]

I'm sure the Best Buy campers would not enjoy bitter cold, gale force winds and driving rain so lets hope for a little moderation. Sunny and cold would be ideal for me with no north wind. Even a mild day would be nice as well, more like Fall than Winter.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z ensemble mean continue to advertise a very potent Southern Plains storm developing next weekend and possibly another storm near Thanksgiving.

11162014 00Z Euro Ensemble Mean 192 ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_9.png

11162014 00Z P GFS ensemble Mean 192 gfsp_z500a_namer_33.png

[ndale]

SRAIN are these storms to be cold and wet for Tx like icy or just cold?

[srainhoutx]

SRAIN are these storms to be cold and wet for Tx like icy or just cold?

Right now it looks like a rain/thunderstorm event across our Region with some potential for ice across MO and N AR. Possibly some severe weather potential as the return flow off the Gulf becomes established later in the upcoming work week.

[sambucol]

Will it be cold?

[srainhoutx]

Will it be cold?

Following the weekend/early week storm it does appear a shot of cold air will drop S into Texas.

[sambucol]

SRAIN are these storms to be cold and wet for Tx like icy or just cold?

Right now it looks like a rain/thunderstorm event across our Region with some potential for ice across MO and N AR. Possibly some severe weather potential as the return flow off the Gulf becomes established later in the upcoming work week.

Yes!!! Any idea what our high and low temps will be?

[srainhoutx]

If the 12Z Euro is correct, another strong shot of Arctic air is poised to spill S from Canada as a strong upper ridge develops once again along the Pacific West Coast into Alaska around Thanksgiving day or just beyond. Yet another deep trough could carve out into the Plains and the East as reinforcing shots of cold air cross the N Pole and head S into North America.

11172014 12Z Euro 240 ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

11172014 12Z Euro 240 ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png

[sambucol]

Any idea what kind of temps here for Thanksgiving?

[snowman65]

Right now it looks like 60's for high on Thanksgiving day. lows in upper 40's. No rain until Friday, then gets cooler.

[srainhoutx]

A quick update regard the busy Thanksgiving Holiday period. The Euro continues to advertise a pattern not too different than what we witnessed earlier this month when the first Arctic blast entered our Region. The GFS and new parallel GFS operational guidance has been waffling with this solution, but the ensembles are beginning to come into agreement that a very strong blocking West Coast Ridge will extend up into Alaska setting the stage of a potent storm to drop S into the Desert SW and develop into a significant Winter Storm across the Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains and our Region. It is too soon to know the finer details beyond 5 days, but with the hectic Holiday period approaching and may with travel plans, it will be worth monitoring as we head into next week.

11202014 00Z Euro 192 ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png

11202014 00Z Euro 216 ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

11202014 00Z Euro 240 ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

11202014 00Z Euro 216 ecmwf_T850a_namer_10.png

11202014 00Z euro 240 ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png

[srainhoutx]

Our Thanksgiving weather looks great with seasonal temperatures in the mid to upper 60's and dry. For those traveling to the East Coast on Wednesday, there may be some significant travel troubles along the I-95 Corridor where it appears a Winter type Nor'Easter may be possible. Maybe snow flying on that big Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York City with gusty winds preventing those aerial balloons from traversing the parade route up that way. Thant said the models can't even get things correct 24 to 48 hours out, so buyer beware...

GFS:

11232014 06Z GFS f90.gif

Euro:

11232014 00Z Euro f96.gif