November 2014: Nice Seanonal Thanksgiving Ahead

[SLM87TX]

It not really that cold. If it was 30 for the high then I say this is really cold weather. And on the plants. If it tender plant then move inside if it tough it will be find with the temps. They do put water on plants but that to protect against freezing temperatures not frost if it will die from frost move it in. Or you can cover them with a sheet or quilt or a pot. The ground temps are still very high. Prolonged periods of cold will slowly make this go down.

[jasons2k]

Highs in the low 50's with a real freeze threat, in the 2nd week of November, is a bit too cold for my liking. But that's just my personal preference. Also, I have a lot of zone 10 plants in my yard and garden, as tropical gardening is another hobby of mine, so freeze preparations are a pretty big deal for me. I've scaled way back from what I did in past years, not as much ladder work is required, but it's still a lot more work for me than moving a few pots into the garage.

I have one healthy Majesty Palm left. It's about 20ft to the base of the crown now, so it's getting pretty tall. She's really beautiful but last year was the last time I could wrap it completely; she's just too tall now and I'm not renting a lift to save her. If we get below ~24F this winter, she's toast.

[srainhoutx]

The MOS text data has freezing temps Thursday morning in Conroe with overcast skies. The MEX raw text has 28F for Friday morning at Conroe with clear skies a little if any wind. Typically we see the raw MOS/MEX data to be a bit too high, so I would not be surprised to see at least a Freeze Watch issued in the next day or two for portions of SE Texas N of I-10.

Code: Select all

KCXO   GFS MOSGUIDANCE   11/10/2014  1200 UTC
DT /NOV  10/NOV  11                /NOV  12                /NOV  13
HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12
N/X                    61          68          38          58    30
TMP  76 80 68 66 66 66 65 65 64 63 55 50 46 43 40 46 54 56 48 37 31
DPT  53 53 60 60 61 61 60 58 49 43 40 37 34 32 30 30 28 29 32 27 22
CLD  CL CL CL SC SC OV OV OV BK BK SC SC FW FW CL CL CL FW BK OV OV
WDR  18 18 16 16 17 19 20 30 32 33 34 35 34 34 34 36 36 36 35 35 34
WSP  15 16 11 12 10 09 07 10 10 11 05 08 09 10 10 12 12 11 04 07 08
P06         0     1     5    16     6     2     6     6     5 12 24
P12                    11          16           7           9    30
Q06         0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0  0  0
Q12                     0           0           0           0     1
T06      0/ 6  0/ 3  1/ 1  1/ 0  4/ 3  4/ 3  3/ 2  3/ 2  5/ 0  5/ 0
T12            0/ 7        3/ 3        7/ 5        3/ 4     5/ 3
POZ   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  3 15
POS   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  1  0  1  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  2
TYP   R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R
SNW                     0                       0                 0
CIG   8  8  8  8  8  6  5  5  6  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  7  7
VIS   7  7  7  7  7  7  6  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7
OBV   N  N  N  N  N  N BR  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N

[srainhoutx]

And here is the first hint of a Freeze Warning coming...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
240 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-110600-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
240 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS WEEK...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE COLLEGE STATION AREA AROUND 9 AM...THE
HOUSTON AREA AROUND NOON AND GALVESTON AROUND 3 PM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT COLLEGE STATION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY MID AFTERNOON. IN
HOUSTON...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR NEAR NOON WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S BY MID AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...BE
PREPARED FOR A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE NORMAL HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S.

THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AREAS NORTH OF I-10
COULD EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32
DEGREES. A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS ON FRIDAY MORNING.

THE UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH ONLY SLIGHT WARMING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

[BlueJay]

Thanks for the feedback regarding the health of plants. I have watered all the plants this afternoon and have decided to bring in all of the pots and maybe to cover the more tender plants on Thursday evening.

(I am kind of hoping that this freeze forecast will not come to fruition. I will not be disappointed.)

[srainhoutx]

Evening briefing from Jeff:


Big changes on the way!

 

Major upper air pattern shift resulting in a surge of very cold arctic air. To give an idea of the temperature change with this front Denver this afternoon was 16 with moderate snow behind the boundary while Gage, OK was 86. Front has roared into the panhandle where Dumas, TX has fallen to 40 with N winds gusting to 52mph and a wind chill of 27 while Childress, TX is 73.

 

Front will plow across the state overnight with cold air pouring southward. Front will blast off the coast by Tuesday afternoon with temperatures tumbling from the mid 70’s ahead of the boundary into the lower 50’s behind the boundary. Strong cold air advection and falling temperatures along with gusty winds will drop wind chills into the 40’s by Tuesday afternoon. This will certainly be a shock given the warmth today. Moisture looks fairly meager ahead of the boundary, but just enough may be in place to produce a thin band of showers. Front should reach CLL around 900am, metro Houston around 1100am and off the coast by early afternoon. North winds will increase into the 20-30mph range behind the boundary. For those that have lived here long enough….this will classify as a “blue norther”.

 

Still looking at a period of weak overrunning low Wednesday which may keep some clouds over the region and hold daytime highs in the 40’s to near 50 along the coast on Wednesday.

 

Polar high anchors over the plains with bitter cold air mass for November standards. Temperatures across the plains will run as much as 25-35 degrees below normal for daytime highs. For example OKC will have a high on Thursday of only near 40 when the normal high is 65. To give an idea of the historic standing of this cold outbreak: Minneapolis, MN is currently forecast to go 13 days straight below freezing for daytime highs, with the previous record being 16 days all the way back in 1880.

 

Friday Morning:

Given the gravity of the incoming air mass and the tendency for model guidance to under forecast the intensity of cold arctic air masses a potential killing freeze is appearing more likely for Friday morning. With polar high pressure building overhead Thursday night and skies clearing and winds becoming light, temperatures will radiate toward the dewpoint. Dewpoints will likely bottom out in the 20’s on Thursday afternoon and latest GFS guidance is now showing 32 for IAH, 26 for Conroe, and 29 for CLL for Friday morning. Given the colder and colder guidance a widespread freeze along and north of I-10 is starting to become possible for Friday. In fact guidance is even suggesting a freeze north of HWY 105 for Thursday morning. A freeze watch and warning will likely be needed for parts of the area possibly Thursday morning and for a larger part of the area Friday morning.

 

Take the opportunity on Tuesday to prepare for the cold weather including the needed freeze protections for the first freeze of the winter.

 

Weekend:

Fast moving yet potent upper air disturbance will come crashing into the cold air mass from the west. Air mass will be unable to modify much with moisture pouring into the surface cold dome. Overrunning clouds will rapidly increase early Saturday with rain developing and spreading across the region Saturday night into Sunday. Highs may be hard pressed to warm much in the 50’s on Saturday as clouds increase from morning lows in the 30’s. Air mass will saturate from top down during the day and thickness profiles and dewpoints suggest all liquid precipitation across SE TX for Saturday night. ECMWF and CMC are the most aggressive model guidance with rain chances at the moment and will lean toward those solutions with support from CPC discussions. Think guidance is too warm on Sunday with coastal low moving across the NW Gulf toward LA coast and clouds, rain, fog over SE TX. GFS is showing a high of 68 at IAH, but I am not sure if we will be anywhere close to that number unless a warm front attempts to move inland.    

[cperk]

Jeff thanks for a very informative briefing.We appreciate the time and effort you put in to keep us informed on impending weather events.

[TexasBreeze]

This front is actually not too far away and moving fast. You can see the impressive radar reflection of the front and track it here...

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southpla ... e_loop.php

[losmabies]

I have a quick question about the weather on Saturday. I have read all the posts and I see there is a decent chance for rain on Saturday. My son is playing in a pretty big baseball tournament this weekend in town and we are wondering just how sound these rain chances are. Will they be just scattered showers (which we tend to play through and just have some minor delays) or will it be widespread rain which would be enough to cancel the event? We weren't looking forward to the cold but we were excited that this was the first really good tournament of the fall season. Thanks to everyone for all of your useful input. I really enjoy reading these boards.

[srainhoutx]

I have a quick question about the weather on Saturday. I have read all the posts and I see there is a decent chance for rain on Saturday. My son is playing in a pretty big baseball tournament this weekend in town and we are wondering just how sound these rain chances are. Will they be just scattered showers (which we tend to play through and just have some minor delays) or will it be widespread rain which would be enough to cancel the event? We weren't looking forward to the cold but we were excited that this was the first really good tournament of the fall season. Thanks to everyone for all of your useful input. I really enjoy reading these boards.

Right now it looks like the best chances of rain would be later in the afternoon/evening on Saturday into early Sunday as the Coastal low/trough develops to our SW and passes the area into Louisiana on Sunday. There may be some light rain developing during the day on Saturday as moisture increases when some mid/upper level clouds stream in form the SW from a weak tropical disturbance moves inland and across Mexico from the Eastern Pacific and a noisy sub tropical jet stream overhead. We are glad to have all the folks that have been monitoring the board and welcome all the newer members that have recently registered as well as those that just read our postings.

[Katdaddy]

The Blue Norther continues to race S this morning across Central and NTX rapidly dropping temps into the 40s with gusty N winds. The Houston-Galveston NWS has the front through Houston metro around 9:30AM and Galveston by 11AM. A few showers and thunderstorms possible this morning but short lived as the front races offshore. Tomorrow will feel like Winter under cloudy skies and slight chance of light rain. Thursday night looks to be the coldest night with upper 30s possible as far S as the immediate coastal areas.

This is the beginning of what looks to be an interesting and exciting Winter. I would much rather enjoy a SE TX and Upper TX Coast snowfall then preparing for a CAT 4 bearing down on the Upper TX Coast.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Strong arctic cold front slicing across TX this morning.



Prefrontal trough defined by a developing line of showers and winds turning to the NW is along a line from Lake Livingston to Conroe to Columbus. Actual arctic front with onset of significant cooling is just north of Austin. 700am temperatures range from 40 at Dallas with a north wind to 32mph to 67 at Brenham. Amarillo has fallen to 20 with a wind chill of 3 and Denver has reached 12 this morning so there is plenty of cold air pouring down the western high plains into TX.

Arctic front will race off the coast and will speed up timing just a little to show the boundary through College Station around 800-900am, metro Houston 1000-1100am and off the coast by noon-100pm. Temperatures will fall from the 70’s ahead of the front to the 50’s quickly behind the front with gusty north winds and cloudy skies. It will feel cold this afternoon.

Another change will be to hold on to mid and high level clouds most of Wednesday and into Thursday which will require lowering of afternoon highs both days. Highs may struggle to reach 50 on Wednesday and Thursday with cloud cover and cold air advection process continuing.

Freeze Potential:
00Z GFS guidance has come in its coldest yet showing dewpoints into the 10’s by Thursday afternoon over the area as the center of the large 1049mb arctic high slides into the central plains. GFS Friday morning lows suggest a freeze is possible north of I-10 with IAH showing 30, Conroe 24 and College Station 29. Much of this will depend on if and when the mid and high level cloud decks clear out. I am very wary of such pesky sub-tropical flow and its potential to keep cloud cover in place longer over the top of these shallow arctic air masses which can play havoc with low temperature forecasts. Average date of the first freeze for IAH is the first week of December and for CLL the last week of November, so if we do reach freezing late this week it will be about 3 weeks ahead of normal.

No big changes to the weekend since last night…still holding on to a cold and wet forecast especially late Saturday into Sunday. Guidance may finally be starting to get the idea that it is just not going to warm up with a coastal trough/low developing off the TX coast and moving toward LA. Will go with highs stuck in the 40’s Saturday with increasing clouds and developing rain and Sunday may not be much better.

[tireman4]

The Blue Norther continues to race S this morning across Central and NTX rapidly dropping temps into the 40s with gusty N winds. The Houston-Galveston NWS has the front through Houston metro around 9:30AM and Galveston by 11AM. A few showers and thunderstorms possible this morning but short lived as the front races offshore. Tomorrow will feel like Winter under cloudy skies and slight chance of light rain. Thursday night looks to be the coldest night with upper 30s possible as far S as the immediate coastal areas.

This is the beginning of what looks to be an interesting and exciting Winter. I would much rather enjoy a SE TX and Upper TX Coast snowfall then preparing for a CAT 4 bearing down on the Upper TX Coast.

Agreed Katdaddy. This will be an interesting week. Colder than normal temperatures will make it seem winterish around here. I think this maybe a harbinger of things to come.

[srainhoutx]

Some quick thoughts regarding the medium/longer range pattern as we head into next week into the Thanksgiving timeframe. It appears that this pattern change has some staying power with a reloading surge of colder air moving S across Northern Canada heading S. Some of the Global computer models suggest a near 1048mb Arctic High will settle into Montana next Monday into Tuesday offering a second serge of cold air into Texas. The computer models are still sorting out an upper level disturbance currently over the N Pacific heading toward the Pacific NW/California this weekend.

There may be some slight moderation a bit closer to what we would expect normally this time of year later next week, but there are some indications that the very strong blocking regime reestablishes across the Polar Region as yet another big cold Upper Ridge builds into Alaska and the NW Territories of Canada near the day 9-10 timeframe. If that happens, we may see another push of very chilly air near the Thanksgiving Holiday period. The general upper storm track appears to bring upper level disturbance into Washington/Oregon/N California from the N Pacific dropping SE into the Southern Rockies and embedded upper air disturbances dropping S from W Central Canada with the Arctic jet into the Northern and Central Plains. The sub-tropical jet stream appears rather noisy as El Nino develops further lending to potential for areas of low pressure developing along the NW and Central Gulf Coast heading NE along the Atlantic Coast. A slowly building snowpack across the Plains and the Rockies appear likely into the next couple of weeks. Simply put, it appears that Winter is arriving a bit earlier than many expected and it could be rather chilly and stormy as we head into late November and early December. We will see.

[SLM87TX]

Why does that low pressure over the norther pacific look so wierd?

[srainhoutx]

Why does that low pressure over the norther pacific look so wierd?

That is the effect of the very big Upper Ridge that is currently anchored over Alaska and Western Canada. That Upper Ridge is what is bringing all the very cold air across the N Pole from Siberia and Eurasia into the Intern Mountain West and the Plains.

[Andrew]

Why does that low pressure over the norther pacific look so wierd?

That is the effect of the very big Upper Ridge that is currently anchored over Alaska and Western Canada. That Upper Ridge is what is bringing all the very cold air across the N Pole from Siberia and Eurasia into the Intern Mountain West and the Plains.

Yea essentially squashing or preventing any northern movements. That is also another reason why we are seeing such strong negative standard deviations in the AO and EPO. Essentially these negative phases are associated with higher heights in both the arctic and Alaska/eastern Pacific region, weakening the zonal winds, ultimately sending cold air south.

AO:

ao.sprd2.gif

EPO (bottom right):

4panel.png

[srainhoutx]

the 12Z parallel GFS upgrade computer model suggests a Coastal Low develops along the Lower/Middle Texas Gulf Coast Late on Sunday and moves NE toward Louisiana Monday. In the upper levels, a disturbance in the upper levels rides ESE from the Pacific Coast and into New Mexico spreading some light wintery mischief across the Panhandle into Oklahoma. A rather stronger reinforcing shot of colder air follows this upper air disturbance with a 1044+ High Pressure settling into Colorado.

The attachment 11112014 12Z P GFS 120 gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_20.png is no longer available

[davidiowx]

[BlueJay]

Happy Veteran's Day to all!

Our temperature has fallen from a high of 68F and we are currently at 54F.