Storm Surge Inundation (SLOSH Maximum of Maximums)

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Ptarmigan
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Storm Surge Inundation (SLOSH Maximum of Maximums)
http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/Storyt ... 59635a82ee

From the website.
This web map displays a seamless national map of near worst case storm surge flooding (inundation) scenarios using the National Weather Service (NWS) SLOSH model maximum of maximums (MOMs) product for different hurricane wind categories at a high tide.

Category 5 is the worst. :shock: :o
unome
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what I don't understand is why they preached and preached how surge and wind are two different aspects of a tropical cyclone then give the public a tool that classifies surge in one broad swoop by the wind category ?

SLOSH has been around for a long time, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/slosh.php you can even download the program http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/sloshPub/disclaim.php there are so many variables that go into it, however, that I believe releasing a map like that does more harm than good to the general public, who does not have the training
( slosh.nws.noaa.gov/sloshPub/SLOSH-Display-Training.pdf or slosh.nws.noaa.gov/sloshPub/SLOSH-Display-Training.ppt )
to understand the variables - without it, it's a scare map

from their site:

SLOSH Model

The SLOSH model computes storm surge heights from tropical cyclones using pressure, size, forward speed, and track data to create a model of the wind field which pushes the water around. (A portion of the surge is caused by the low pressure at the center of the hurricane, but this effect is small in comparison to the wind effects.) A sample output can be seen here for Hurricane Hugo.

SLOSH has been applied to the entire U. S. East coast and Gulf of Mexico coastlines. In addition coverage extends to Hawaii, Guam, Puerto Rico, and the U. S. Virgin Islands (coverage). An example of a typical compuational domain, or basin, is the Biloxi, Mississippi basin.

Based on tide gage observations and high water marks (HWM) measured after past hurricanes, the SLOSH model is accurate to within +/- 20%. However, there is considerable error in the HWM data. Using higher quality, "excellent" HWMs from Katrina, SLOSH accuracy approached +/- 5%.

The SLOSH model consists of a set of equations derived from the Newtonian equations of motion (shallow water equations) and the continuity equation applied to a rotating fluid with a free surface. The equations are integrated from the sea floor to the surface. The coastline is represented as a physical boundary. Subgrid-scale water features (cuts, chokes, sills and channels), and vertical obstructions (levees, roads, spoil banks, etc.) are parameterized. The model accounts for astronomical tides by specifying an initial tide level, but does not include rainfall amounts, riverflow, or wind-driven waves.

At the time emergency managers must make an evacuation descision, errors in the hurricane's track and characteristics are large. To aid emergency managers in planning for hurricanes, the potential surge for an area is computed. This is done by running SLOSH with hypothetical hurricanes with various landfall directions and locations, Saffir-Simpson categories, forward speeds, sizes, and tide levels. Each individual run generates an envelope of high water containing the maximum value a grid cell attains during the run. These envelopes are then combined by taking the maximum by category, speed and direction to create MEOWs (Maximum Envelope Of Water), or simply by category to create MOMs (Maximum Of MEOWs). The MEOWs and MOMs form the basis of the "hazard analysis" portion of coastal hurricane evacuation plans.


and

----- I acknowledge reading the following -----

The SLOSH Display Program was developed for emergency management and the scientific community to aid in decision making at the local, state and federal level. It is not meant for use by the general public in determining whether to evacuate leading up to a storm. Pay attention to your local emergency manager, particularly during an evacuation.


The SLOSH Display program is only one of several tools used by emergency management agencies to determine who is at risk and may be asked to evacuate. DO NOT disregard the advice of local authorities as the SLOSH Display program is not meant for life or death decision making!

We recommend people have some training. We have some here and we are developing additional training. The key ideas to learn are:
What is storm surge?
There is inaccuracy in any model.
There is more inaccuracy in the input wind parameters to surge models than in the models themselves.
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jasons2k
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I like it. It's pretty straightforward. It shows the worst-case scenario, which people should be prepared for.

That said, the NWS/NHC and Emergency Ops guys just need to be clear about expectations. They were very very vocal in 2008 that the surge from Ike would be much greater than a "Cat 2" surge because of the size of the storm, and to prepare for more like a "Cat 4" storm surge. That message was repeated over and over again.

The NWS Slidell could not have been more explicit in their warnings prior to Katrina.

This isn't rocket science - people just need to pay attention to the warnings and heed them.
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wxman57
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unome wrote:what I don't understand is why they preached and preached how surge and wind are two different aspects of a tropical cyclone then give the public a tool that classifies surge in one broad swoop by the wind category ?
I hear you! I preach and preach NOT to think of storm surge in terms of a Saffir-Simpson category and their SLOSH page categorizes storm surge by SS category. A hurricane's max sustained wind does not generate the storm surge. It's the size of the hurricane (or TS) wind field that generates the volume of water that moves into the coast. Yes, a large area of 150 mph winds will generate a larger surge than the same area of 50 mph winds. However, a large Cat 2 can generate a larger storm surge than a small to average-sized Cat 4 (or 5). Size matters a lot more than speed.

I don't know if the NWS will ever be able to separate surge from SS category. You just cannot use Saffir-Simpson to categorize storm surge...
unome
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remember Steve Lyons & the "five toes of a hurricane footprint" ? that has forever stuck in my mind, you can still find the pdf online:

WIND
RAIN
WAVES
COASTAL WATER FLOODING
TORNADOES

EACH TOE MAY BE COMPLETELY INDEPENDENT OF ANOTHER


the whole presentation is great, miss his presence on-air
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