October 2014: Slight Rain Chances/Halloween Outlook

[snowman65]

Isn't there another push poised for next week sometime?

[srainhoutx]

Isn't there another push poised for next week sometime?

It does look like we will get a front late on Monday into early Tuesday as the deep Eastern trough sends another short wave into the Southern Plains. That should just give us a glancing push of cooler air.

[kayci]

I'm sorry, yall. But I miss summer already.

[Kingwood32]

I'm sorry, yall. But I miss summer already.

If u had to get out and work in it all summer long instead of just swimming and going to the beach ( not saying u do) just cuz it's summer..then u wouldn't miss it one bit..I know I don't miss it

[Paul Robison]

Should Houstonians be worried?

Corpus Christi WX AFD:

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...AN INITIALLY VERY DRY
AIRMASS WL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOISTEN UP AS ONSHORE FLOW SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES
AND THE AMOUNT OF RETURN MOISTURE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS. WL
LEAN TWDS THE DRIER AND SLOWER GFS SOLN AND HOLD OFF SLIGHT CHC POPS
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE WL LKLY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY (ON THE
SRN END OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED THROUGH SOUTH TX
THIS PAST MONDAY) ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THE NET RESULT FOR OUR CWA WL BE
INCREASED SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES MAY
ACTUALLY DIMINISH AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THIS SYSTEM AS SLOW
STRENGTHENING OCCURS. TEMPS WL LKLY BE TEMPERED GIVEN THE MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION OF THE WINDS.

What do y'all know about this?

[cperk]

Should Houstonians be worried?

Corpus Christi WX AFD:

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...AN INITIALLY VERY DRY
AIRMASS WL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOISTEN UP AS ONSHORE FLOW SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES
AND THE AMOUNT OF RETURN MOISTURE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS. WL
LEAN TWDS THE DRIER AND SLOWER GFS SOLN AND HOLD OFF SLIGHT CHC POPS
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE WL LKLY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY (ON THE
SRN END OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED THROUGH SOUTH TX
THIS PAST MONDAY) ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THE NET RESULT FOR OUR CWA WL BE
INCREASED SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES MAY
ACTUALLY DIMINISH AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THIS SYSTEM AS SLOW
STRENGTHENING OCCURS. TEMPS WL LKLY BE TEMPERED GIVEN THE MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION OF THE WINDS.

What do y'all know about this?

Wow just check the models.This one caught me off guard,thanks Paul.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Briefing from Jeff:

Coldest morning so far this fall this morning with low temperatures thus far ranging from 47 at Conroe to 63 at Galveston. Most locations have fallen into the upper 40’s and low 50’s.

Surface high pressure will begin to move eastward today allowing weak southerly winds to return by late this afternoon. Gulf of Mexico has been scoured of moisture by the recent frontal passage so moisture return will be slow to the state. In fact dewpoints do not look to recover into the 60’s until Friday. Thus will maintain a fair sky with lows in the 50’s and highs in the 80’s through Friday.

Upper level flow remain WNW to NW over the weekend with only modest and shallow surface moisture return. While it will begin to feel more humid this layer will be very shallow near the surface with dry air aloft. No rain chances are expected through early next week.

Gulf tropical potential:

After a fairly inactive tropical season, the Atlantic appears to want to make up some ground with Fay and Gonzalo and now a potential Gulf development next week. Frontal boundary which moved off the coast on Monday is stalled across the southern Gulf and will remain in that position for the next several days. Global forecast models want to bring energy from the eastern Pacific (92E) into the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche over the next 72 hours and indicate surface low pressure developing in this region. Global models gradually intensify the surface low while holding it nearly stationary over the southern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend into early next week which is a favorable pattern for a southern Gulf of Mexico October tropical cyclone. With significant ridging over the US Gulf states this weekend into early next week, there looks to be little motion of this system with little to no steering in place. If upper level conditions are favorable and there is not significant amounts of dry air over the central Gulf then steady intensification is possible and systems in the southern Gulf this time of year can at times become fairly strong under the right conditions.

Deepening low pressure over the southern Gulf and high pressure over the SE US will increase the pressure gradient across the Gulf of Mexico starting this weekend. Long fetch easterly winds will begin to develop which is a tidal increase wind along the upper TX coast. Will need to keep an eye on tides and wave action into next week with broad low pressure/tropical cyclone across the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Gonzalo:

Powerful category 3 Gonzalo takes aim at Bermuda….hurricane watches are issued.

Gonzalo has intensified into a 125mph category 3 hurricane overnight. IR images show the 20 mile diameter eye appears to be contracting some and losing a bit of definition which suggest an eyewall replacement cycle may be in progress. A USAF aircraft will be in the hurricane shortly to access the intensity and structure.

Gonzalo in moving NW into a break in the sub-tropical ridge over the western Atlantic in the wake of ex-hurricane Fay. A large deep layer trough along the US east coast will capture the hurricane and turn it northward and NNE over the next 36-48 hours. Model guidance is strongly clustered with this track reasoning and the guidance and the official NHC forecast takes a powerful hurricane near/just west of Bermuda Friday. This is a high than average forecast track confidence given the near excellent model agreement.

Intensity guidance suggest Gonzalo is near its peak and show steady but slow weakening as the hurricane moves northward. Conditions appear generally favorable for at least maintaining of the intensity for the next 24 hours with any such internal eyewall cycles allowing some short term fluctuations. Stronger upper level wind shear will begin to impact the hurricane as it nears Bermuda, but Gonzalo is expected to be a strong hurricane as it passes near/over the island on Friday.

[kayci]

I'm sorry, yall. But I miss summer already.

If u had to get out and work in it all summer long instead of just swimming and going to the beach ( not saying u do) just cuz it's summer..then u wouldn't miss it one bit..I know I don't miss it

Alot of my job includes working in the elements loading and unloading welding machines with a forklift when the technician is out. No complaints still.

[jasons2k]

Some of us just prefer the heat and humidity over the dry and coolness, whether we work indoors or not. It's just a personal preference. It also affects people differently. Most runners prefer the cooler weather; I noticed LOTS of people running at lunch yesterday.

I personally cannot run in the cooler and dry air - it makes me feel like I'm having an asthma attack even though I don't have asthma, my nose runs like crazy, and my ears - wow my ears hurt really bad in the cold. For whatever reason, I do much better in the heat and humidity. Maybe because I grew-up in Tampa my body was conditioned that way, who knows. But I'll take a sweat over having to peel layers any day of the week.

I'm enjoying the fall weather, it's always nice for the holidays, but come January 2nd I'll be all ready for summer again in full-force.

[cperk]

Morning Briefing from Jeff:

Coldest morning so far this fall this morning with low temperatures thus far ranging from 47 at Conroe to 63 at Galveston. Most locations have fallen into the upper 40’s and low 50’s.

Surface high pressure will begin to move eastward today allowing weak southerly winds to return by late this afternoon. Gulf of Mexico has been scoured of moisture by the recent frontal passage so moisture return will be slow to the state. In fact dewpoints do not look to recover into the 60’s until Friday. Thus will maintain a fair sky with lows in the 50’s and highs in the 80’s through Friday.

Upper level flow remain WNW to NW over the weekend with only modest and shallow surface moisture return. While it will begin to feel more humid this layer will be very shallow near the surface with dry air aloft. No rain chances are expected through early next week.

Gulf tropical potential:

After a fairly inactive tropical season, the Atlantic appears to want to make up some ground with Fay and Gonzalo and now a potential Gulf development next week. Frontal boundary which moved off the coast on Monday is stalled across the southern Gulf and will remain in that position for the next several days. Global forecast models want to bring energy from the eastern Pacific (92E) into the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche over the next 72 hours and indicate surface low pressure developing in this region. Global models gradually intensify the surface low while holding it nearly stationary over the southern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend into early next week which is a favorable pattern for a southern Gulf of Mexico October tropical cyclone. With significant ridging over the US Gulf states this weekend into early next week, there looks to be little motion of this system with little to no steering in place. If upper level conditions are favorable and there is not significant amounts of dry air over the central Gulf then steady intensification is possible and systems in the southern Gulf this time of year can at times become fairly strong under the right conditions.

Deepening low pressure over the southern Gulf and high pressure over the SE US will increase the pressure gradient across the Gulf of Mexico starting this weekend. Long fetch easterly winds will begin to develop which is a tidal increase wind along the upper TX coast. Will need to keep an eye on tides and wave action into next week with broad low pressure/tropical cyclone across the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Gonzalo:

Powerful category 3 Gonzalo takes aim at Bermuda….hurricane watches are issued.

Gonzalo has intensified into a 125mph category 3 hurricane overnight. IR images show the 20 mile diameter eye appears to be contracting some and losing a bit of definition which suggest an eyewall replacement cycle may be in progress. A USAF aircraft will be in the hurricane shortly to access the intensity and structure.

Gonzalo in moving NW into a break in the sub-tropical ridge over the western Atlantic in the wake of ex-hurricane Fay. A large deep layer trough along the US east coast will capture the hurricane and turn it northward and NNE over the next 36-48 hours. Model guidance is strongly clustered with this track reasoning and the guidance and the official NHC forecast takes a powerful hurricane near/just west of Bermuda Friday. This is a high than average forecast track confidence given the near excellent model agreement.

Intensity guidance suggest Gonzalo is near its peak and show steady but slow weakening as the hurricane moves northward. Conditions appear generally favorable for at least maintaining of the intensity for the next 24 hours with any such internal eyewall cycles allowing some short term fluctuations. Stronger upper level wind shear will begin to impact the hurricane as it nears Bermuda, but Gonzalo is expected to be a strong hurricane as it passes near/over the island on Friday.

Jeff any chance of SE Texas getting this system if at all development occurs.

[jeff]

Morning Briefing from Jeff:

Coldest morning so far this fall this morning with low temperatures thus far ranging from 47 at Conroe to 63 at Galveston. Most locations have fallen into the upper 40’s and low 50’s.

Surface high pressure will begin to move eastward today allowing weak southerly winds to return by late this afternoon. Gulf of Mexico has been scoured of moisture by the recent frontal passage so moisture return will be slow to the state. In fact dewpoints do not look to recover into the 60’s until Friday. Thus will maintain a fair sky with lows in the 50’s and highs in the 80’s through Friday.

Upper level flow remain WNW to NW over the weekend with only modest and shallow surface moisture return. While it will begin to feel more humid this layer will be very shallow near the surface with dry air aloft. No rain chances are expected through early next week.

Gulf tropical potential:

After a fairly inactive tropical season, the Atlantic appears to want to make up some ground with Fay and Gonzalo and now a potential Gulf development next week. Frontal boundary which moved off the coast on Monday is stalled across the southern Gulf and will remain in that position for the next several days. Global forecast models want to bring energy from the eastern Pacific (92E) into the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche over the next 72 hours and indicate surface low pressure developing in this region. Global models gradually intensify the surface low while holding it nearly stationary over the southern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend into early next week which is a favorable pattern for a southern Gulf of Mexico October tropical cyclone. With significant ridging over the US Gulf states this weekend into early next week, there looks to be little motion of this system with little to no steering in place. If upper level conditions are favorable and there is not significant amounts of dry air over the central Gulf then steady intensification is possible and systems in the southern Gulf this time of year can at times become fairly strong under the right conditions.

Deepening low pressure over the southern Gulf and high pressure over the SE US will increase the pressure gradient across the Gulf of Mexico starting this weekend. Long fetch easterly winds will begin to develop which is a tidal increase wind along the upper TX coast. Will need to keep an eye on tides and wave action into next week with broad low pressure/tropical cyclone across the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Gonzalo:

Powerful category 3 Gonzalo takes aim at Bermuda….hurricane watches are issued.

Gonzalo has intensified into a 125mph category 3 hurricane overnight. IR images show the 20 mile diameter eye appears to be contracting some and losing a bit of definition which suggest an eyewall replacement cycle may be in progress. A USAF aircraft will be in the hurricane shortly to access the intensity and structure.

Gonzalo in moving NW into a break in the sub-tropical ridge over the western Atlantic in the wake of ex-hurricane Fay. A large deep layer trough along the US east coast will capture the hurricane and turn it northward and NNE over the next 36-48 hours. Model guidance is strongly clustered with this track reasoning and the guidance and the official NHC forecast takes a powerful hurricane near/just west of Bermuda Friday. This is a high than average forecast track confidence given the near excellent model agreement.

Intensity guidance suggest Gonzalo is near its peak and show steady but slow weakening as the hurricane moves northward. Conditions appear generally favorable for at least maintaining of the intensity for the next 24 hours with any such internal eyewall cycles allowing some short term fluctuations. Stronger upper level wind shear will begin to impact the hurricane as it nears Bermuda, but Gonzalo is expected to be a strong hurricane as it passes near/over the island on Friday.

Jeff any chance of SE Texas getting this system if at all development occurs.

I would highly doubt any TC would affect SE TX besides some elevated tides next week from long fetch easterly winds. It will likely either bury itself in the southern Gulf or eject off toward the NE or ENE toward the NE and E Gulf.

[cperk]

Thanks for the response Jeff.

[Paul Robison]

Morning Briefing from Jeff:

Coldest morning so far this fall this morning with low temperatures thus far ranging from 47 at Conroe to 63 at Galveston. Most locations have fallen into the upper 40’s and low 50’s.

Surface high pressure will begin to move eastward today allowing weak southerly winds to return by late this afternoon. Gulf of Mexico has been scoured of moisture by the recent frontal passage so moisture return will be slow to the state. In fact dewpoints do not look to recover into the 60’s until Friday. Thus will maintain a fair sky with lows in the 50’s and highs in the 80’s through Friday.

Upper level flow remain WNW to NW over the weekend with only modest and shallow surface moisture return. While it will begin to feel more humid this layer will be very shallow near the surface with dry air aloft. No rain chances are expected through early next week.

Gulf tropical potential:

After a fairly inactive tropical season, the Atlantic appears to want to make up some ground with Fay and Gonzalo and now a potential Gulf development next week. Frontal boundary which moved off the coast on Monday is stalled across the southern Gulf and will remain in that position for the next several days. Global forecast models want to bring energy from the eastern Pacific (92E) into the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche over the next 72 hours and indicate surface low pressure developing in this region. Global models gradually intensify the surface low while holding it nearly stationary over the southern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend into early next week which is a favorable pattern for a southern Gulf of Mexico October tropical cyclone. With significant ridging over the US Gulf states this weekend into early next week, there looks to be little motion of this system with little to no steering in place. If upper level conditions are favorable and there is not significant amounts of dry air over the central Gulf then steady intensification is possible and systems in the southern Gulf this time of year can at times become fairly strong under the right conditions.

Deepening low pressure over the southern Gulf and high pressure over the SE US will increase the pressure gradient across the Gulf of Mexico starting this weekend. Long fetch easterly winds will begin to develop which is a tidal increase wind along the upper TX coast. Will need to keep an eye on tides and wave action into next week with broad low pressure/tropical cyclone across the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Gonzalo:

Powerful category 3 Gonzalo takes aim at Bermuda….hurricane watches are issued.

Gonzalo has intensified into a 125mph category 3 hurricane overnight. IR images show the 20 mile diameter eye appears to be contracting some and losing a bit of definition which suggest an eyewall replacement cycle may be in progress. A USAF aircraft will be in the hurricane shortly to access the intensity and structure.

Gonzalo in moving NW into a break in the sub-tropical ridge over the western Atlantic in the wake of ex-hurricane Fay. A large deep layer trough along the US east coast will capture the hurricane and turn it northward and NNE over the next 36-48 hours. Model guidance is strongly clustered with this track reasoning and the guidance and the official NHC forecast takes a powerful hurricane near/just west of Bermuda Friday. This is a high than average forecast track confidence given the near excellent model agreement.

Intensity guidance suggest Gonzalo is near its peak and show steady but slow weakening as the hurricane moves northward. Conditions appear generally favorable for at least maintaining of the intensity for the next 24 hours with any such internal eyewall cycles allowing some short term fluctuations. Stronger upper level wind shear will begin to impact the hurricane as it nears Bermuda, but Gonzalo is expected to be a strong hurricane as it passes near/over the island on Friday.

Jeff any chance of SE Texas getting this system if at all development occurs.

I would highly doubt any TC would affect SE TX besides some elevated tides next week from long fetch easterly winds. It will likely either bury itself in the southern Gulf or eject off toward the NE or ENE toward the NE and E Gulf.

What about any heavy rain/high wind event like we had on Monday? Anything like that on tap from either source?

[Ptarmigan]

I would highly doubt any TC would affect SE TX besides some elevated tides next week from long fetch easterly winds. It will likely either bury itself in the southern Gulf or eject off toward the NE or ENE toward the NE and E Gulf.

Slim to note a tropical cyclone hits Texas in late October to November, but it has happened in the past.

Texas Hurricane History - Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/txhur.pdf

[jeff]

What about any heavy rain/high wind event like we had on Monday? Anything like that on tap from either source?[/quote]

NO

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Ready for the cold! When is our next front?

[srainhoutx]

Ready for the cold! When is our next front?

We will get a backdoor front by next Tuesday as a deep tough sets up across the Eastern US. That should knock our temperature back to near or just below normal. There are some indications that as we head toward the end of October/ first of November, we may get our first ligament shot of much colder air that has been building across Eurasia and the NW Territories of Canada. We will see about that though...

[Paul Robison]

I would highly doubt any TC would affect SE TX besides some elevated tides next week from long fetch easterly winds. It will likely either bury itself in the southern Gulf or eject off toward the NE or ENE toward the NE and E Gulf.

Slim to note a tropical cyclone hits Texas in late October to November, but it has happened in the past.

Texas Hurricane History - Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/txhur.pdf

Well, according to 18z gfs and (King!) Euro, you don't have anything to worry about from this BOC system---unless you happen to be a Cuban, that is! Yuk! Yuk! Yuk!


BTW: Someone mentioned "colder air," I believe. Who was that? How cold is "colder?" Down in the 20s, something like that?

[snowman65]

Still aways off but any indications as to what the weather may be like in Houston for the airshow on Nov 1 & 2? Thanks!

[srainhoutx]

Still aways off but any indications as to what the weather may be like in Houston for the airshow on Nov 1 & 2? Thanks!

The long range GFS has been suggesting our first 'Blue Norther' may arrive around the first of November. That is still a long way out, but the teleconnection indices are suggesting all the snow and cold weather that has been building across Eurasia/Siberia and Alaska into NW and Northern Canada may drop S into the Lower 48 as November begins. That is typically when we begin to see signs of our first real shot of colder Continental air drop S, so we will monitor the pattern over the next week or two and see if the long range guidance is correct. The pattern also suggests that El Nino is developing as we have expected and that tends to lead to a noisy sub tropical jet across the Eastern Pacific into Mexico and Texas. My hunch is the winter weather lovers will have a lot to talk about in over the next several months as we head toward December, January and February.