October 2014: Slight Rain Chances/Halloween Outlook

[Portastorm]

Alright, it's not too early to start speculating about October's weather. Will we see a cold front the first week of the month?

[tireman4]

Yes. By the grace of the PWC, it will be done.

[Ptarmigan]

October is the second wettest month on average after May from 1981 to 2010.

Jan 3.38
Feb 3.2
Mar 3.41
Apr 3.31
May 5.09
Jun 5.93
Jul 3.79
Aug 3.76
Sep 4.12
Oct 5.7
Nov 4.34
Dec 3.74
Year 49.77


Houston Extremes, Normals and Annual Summaries
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_ ... ls_summary

[wxman57]

It's still looking like our first significant cold front will arrive around October 4th-5th. Perhaps lows into the upper 40s?

[BlueJay]

Upper 40"s?

Brrrr! Fireplace weather!

[tireman4]

It's still looking like our first significant cold front will arrive around October 4th-5th. Perhaps lows into the upper 40s?

Now that, my young friend, I can handle. That is amazing running weather.

[ticka1]

It's still looking like our first significant cold front will arrive around October 4th-5th. Perhaps lows into the upper 40s?

Now that, my young friend, I can handle. That is amazing running weather.

That my weather friend is music to my ears! I anxiously await our first lows in the 40's!!!!

[cperk]

Bring on that cold front,i am ready for some cold weather.

[kayci]

Will there be rain before that front?

[srainhoutx]

Will there be rain before that front?

There will likely be some rain with the front kayci. The big question is just how quickly the Western trough shifts E into the Plains that will bring the cooler weather and if there is any Eastern Pacific moisture moving across Mexico/Texas from a noisy sub tropical jet and any potential tropical mischief near the Baja ahead of the frontal boundary.

09262014 00Z Euro Ensemble Mean Hour 168 get_legacy_plot-web248-20140926141430-22378-0856.gif

[kayci]

Thanx! Appreciate you, Srain!

[srainhoutx]

The late week cold front still looks likely this morning, but there are some uncertainties regarding just how ‘cold’ the temperatures will be as well as our rain chances with and behind the front. The overnight guidance has come into better agreement with the pre fontal trough arriving on Friday, but the actual front may be a bit slower as a lot of upper level energy out over the Pacific drops SE into the Plains next week with the trough digging further S into Texas than previous days had shown in the NW flow aloft. The fly in the ointment then becomes what will happen along the Pacific Coast of Mexico (currently SE of the Gulf of Tehuantepec) as a new tropical cyclone develops and eventually is turn NE toward the Mexico near the Baja and wrings out its tropical moisture across Northern Mexico into Texas next weekend. A secondary re-enforcing shot of colder air may arrive early in the week of October 8th which may bring some of that moisture across Texas and keep a damp and chilly pattern in place next weekend as over running develops before we finally clear out. That pattern looks rather active and it does appear we are headed toward an unsettled chilly pattern as the long wave lengths shorten and the fronts come a bit quicker as we head further into the Fall months.

09272014 00Z Euro f144.gif

09272014 00Z Euro Ensemble Mean Hour 144 get_legacy_plot-web249-20140927085448-4222-0136.gif

[Kingwood32]

Kinda getting excited about this up coming winter..I went back and was reading last yrs comments from our winter weather and got me excited about this yrs action if we get any lol

[ticka1]

Tuesday morning email from Jeff Lindner:

Late summer warmth and humidity will give way to a cold frontal passage Thursday night.

Moisture return will commence across the region today as already noted by local radars from Houston and Corpus Christi showing increasing activity across the coastal waters. Deep tropical moisture appears to be along and south of a line from about 20 miles south of Port O Conner to about 45 miles south of High Island and moving northwestward toward the coast this morning. Rapid Refresh model and TXTECH WRF look to have a good handle on this return flow and develop showers and a few thunderstorms from the coast inland today along possibly a weak seabreeze boundary. Models may be a little fast and aggressive with the moisture return, but rain chances will be increasing to around 30% this afternoon.

Large scale trough moves into the plains on Wednesday and Thursday with a cold front pushing southward and off the TX coast early Friday. Moisture pools along and ahead of this boundary and expect showers and thunderstorms to develop across the region from late Thursday into early Friday. Overall jet dynamics pass north of the area and instability looks weak so not expecting any severe weather. Fast system speed should also negate a heavy rainfall threat even though moisture will be on the high side.

Big changes occur in the post frontal air mass as strong mid and low level drying pours into the region. Dewpoints tumble from the 70’s into 40’s on Friday on gusty northwest winds with high temperatures holding in the low to mid 80’s under full sun. Surface high pressure settles over NE TX Friday night into Saturday with cool morning conditions across the area both Saturday and Sunday mornings. Widespread 50’s for lows appear likely especially away from the urban areas Saturday morning. Return flow begins as early as Sunday afternoon with dewpoints creeping back upward and clouds returning by next Monday.

[srainhoutx]

I'm beginning to see some signs of a much stronger cold front arriving in the longer range (around October 9th-11th) as a deep cyclone develops across the N Pacific near the Aleutian Islands and pumps up a big ridge into Alaska and dislodges a piece of colder air building across Siberia and pushes it S into Canada and the Central/Eastern US. Another factor will be Western Pacific tropical cyclone Phanfone that is expected to recurve away from Japan to the NE and shake up the flow across the Pacific early next week. Some of the temperature departure anomalies are approaching -15 to -20 across Texas later next week which if it does occur, would be our first real shot of much chillier air settling into the Plains this early Fall Season. We will see.

[BiggieSmalls]

Would love to see it. The coming front looks like a very short lived dud.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS continues to forecast a moderate cold front passing on Friday evening. Mid 50s in north Houston Saturday morning.

[jasons2k]

That meteogram shows the front passing around midnight Thursday night/Friday morning.

[Ptarmigan]

Looking at the meteogram WXMan57 made, looks to be another night time storm. I guess I will be awaken by loud claps of thunder.

[srainhoutx]

It looks like a fairly healthy line of storms will accompany the cold front during the Thursday evening/early Friday morning hours from near Kerrville to Texarkana spreading rapidly SE and off the Coast Friday. This front should bring a Chamber of Commerce weather weekend to our Region.