September 2014: Seasonably Warm & Dry To End The Month

[ticka1]

WIll the blob up around abilene moved down south of will it move off to the east? Just curious?

[Rip76]

Getting hit again in Pearland.

Almost 3 straight hours.
Most rain I've seen here in a few years.

[srainhoutx]

Ticka, that is a concern. You can see storms developing SE of that 'blob' along a quasi frontal boundary. The big concern is the quasi boundary could be a focal point for very heavy rainfall into the overnight hours. The big concern is what could happen from the Austin Area on W to Del Rio where some locations could see life threatening flooding if the short range meso models are correct. Those models are suggesting another 9+ inches of rain on top of what fell early this morning.

[ticka1]

Ticka, that is a concern. You can see storms developing SE of that 'blob' along a quasi frontal boundary. The big concern is the quasi boundary could be a focal point for very heavy rainfall into the overnight hours. The big concern is what could happen from the Austin Area on W to Del Rio where some locations could see life threatening flooding if the short range meso models are correct. Those models are suggesting another 9+ inches of rain on top of what fell early this morning.

where will this happen per the models? srainhoutx?

[unome]

looks like yet another line's trying to form & about to come through

[Portastorm]

Well, it won't take much at all for my area of the state, or southeast Texas, to lapse into flash flood danger mode. Looks like a rough 12-18 hours ahead (again) for many of us.

Sadly officials here are still searching for a Travis County deputy sheriff who was checking low water crossings early this morning and got swept away. No sign of her yet.

[Portastorm]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
502 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TXC015-182215-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-140918T2215Z/
AUSTIN TX-
502 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN COUNTY...

AT 502 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
SEALY...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEALY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

[jasons2k]

I'm in SW Austin and it's rockin' over here.

[srainhoutx]

A quick update this evening before things go downhill overnight. A weak frontal boundary is sagging S of Dallas and is nearing Hillsboro this evening and extending E to the Shreveport area. A strengthening low level jet is developing across NE Mexico out of the SW and storms are firing W of Del Rio as moisture in the mid/upper levels associated with Polo and remnants Odile moisture move E into Texas. Rich Gulf . Moisture at the low levels has saturated the column and storms are developing across S Central Texas near and W of Victoria. Additional storms are organizing across Central Texas and will combine with storms developing near Big Bend later tonight. The main concern is very heavy rainfall in short order and potential training along and S of the boundary. Copious rainfall totals could develop across portions of Central/W Central/E/SE Texas into SW Louisiana over the next 24 hours.

A pattern change looks likely next week as the Eastern trough moves into the Atlantic and a deep trough with a powerful jet streaks across the Pacific and carves out a big Western trough. Concern may turn to the NW Caribbean and the Gulf where Global models (Euro/GFS) are suggesting along with the ensembles a very unsettled pattern with lower pressures and potential tropical mischief develops in the medium/long range near day 7 to 10.

[texoz]

On the bright side of what is likely to be a long night for some folks, this rain event could recharge the central Texas lakes enough to qualify as a drought buster. However, we need to get through the night without anyone losing their lives.

As someone else mentioned, we may have lost a Travis County Sheriff who was checking roads in the middle of the night. Unfortunately, they have called off the search as these new storms approach. She may have given her life so that we are safe.

[Ptarmigan]

On the bright side of what is likely to be a long night for some folks, this rain event could recharge the central Texas lakes enough to qualify as a drought buster. However, we need to get through the night without anyone losing their lives.

As someone else mentioned, we may have lost a Travis County Sheriff who was checking roads in the middle of the night. Unfortunately, they have called off the search as these new storms approach. She may have given her life so that we are safe.

It is unfortunate someone died.

Anyways we could use more rain for sure. I would not be surprised if there are thunder that wakes us up while we sleep.

[texoz]

Some stations in SW Austin are already reporting nearly 7 inches of rain in the last couple of hours, between 5-7pm. This is going to be a rough night if the area around Austin continues to get this much rain through the night.

[Ptarmigan]

Some stations in SW Austin are already reporting nearly 7 inches of rain in the last couple of hours, between 5-7pm. This is going to be a rough night if the area around Austin continues to get this much rain through the night.

Some areas in Austin had 7 inches from early this morning.

[djmike]

So are we expecting another surge of moisture overnight? Cause What's out there now over central Texas looks to be all dyeing out! Is that what we were supposed to get overnight or will it or something else regenerate?

[Portastorm]

Some stations in SW Austin are already reporting nearly 7 inches of rain in the last couple of hours, between 5-7pm. This is going to be a rough night if the area around Austin continues to get this much rain through the night.

Here in my part of SW Austin we have had 1.4" since 6 pm. Enough to put our area into flood mode again with numerous low water crossings closed. Earlier today we had generally 5" with an isolated report of 7".

[Portastorm]

More rains for us ... and we've had flooding tonight in urban areas in the western and southern parts of the Austin metro area.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
904 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TXZ171>173-192>194-190500-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...AUSTIN...
BASTROP...GIDDINGS
904 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN NEW BRAUNFELS IS TRACKING
A WIDE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.

THIS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PASS OVER RAIN-SATURATED SOILS
OF LLANO...BURNET...WILLIAMSON...TRAVIS...BASTROP...AND LEE COUNTIES
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS AREA HAS ALREADY EXPERIENCED FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE
CURRENTLY SUBSIDING...BUT MAY RISE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
IF HEAVY RAINFALL PASSES OVER THEM.

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE WITH EXTREME CAUTION TONIGHT IN THE
VICINITY OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS...WHERE
FLOODING ON THE ROAD IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE DUE TO THE DARKNESS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU ENCOUNTER WATER OVER THE ROAD...TURN AROUND...
DONT DROWN.

[Ptarmigan]

So are we expecting another surge of moisture overnight? Cause What's out there now over central Texas looks to be all dyeing out! Is that what we were supposed to get overnight or will it or something else regenerate?

I think more storms could fire up again.

[Texaspirate11]

7 inches at my home near the bay!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Andrew]

Getting some good banding setting up to the north and West parts of SE Texas. Looks like just north of the Houston area could get hit hard as storms converge. Unfortunately mid level flow is creating a training type pattern that could last a little bit. Flood Watches have been extended until late tonight.

[Katdaddy]

One more day with a Flash Flood threat across SE TX. Heavy rains have already developed this morning to the N and W of Houston metro and along the coast. High rainfall rates will likely lead to rapid street flooding where storms develop over the same areas. A few isolated amount of 4-6" will be possible. Rain chances drop off significantly for the weekend.