September 2014: Seasonably Warm & Dry To End The Month

[ticka1]

Hopefully the storm in Austin helped with drought relief but as in most cases too much rain too fast and it all ran off.

Watching here in SE Texas - I think we will just get rain today. I have seen these scenarios too often this year and all the players didn't come together. But at least we had some soaking rains which are the most benefical.

[srainhoutx]

1.27 inches of rain in 10 minutes in NW Harris County and still pouring with torrential wind driven rains.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
848 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TXC039-157-201-181645-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0148.140918T1348Z-140918T1645Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-FORT BEND TX-BRAZORIA TX-
848 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1145 AM CDT

* AT 845 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN PEARLAND...NORTHEASTERN SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...
STAFFORD...BELLAIRE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...TOMBALL...JERSEY
VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT
VILLAGE...FOURTH WARD...GREATER THIRD WARD...GREATER EASTWOOD...
SECOND WARD...NEARTOWN / MONTROSE...NEAR NORTHSIDE HOUSTON...
ASTRODOME AREA...MEADOWS AND SPRING VALLEY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL AREA WAS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 MPH.

[srainhoutx]

2.73 inches in the gauge and still heavy torrential rain in NW Harris County.

[unome]

yup, crazy rain here. neighbor's trash can floated down the street & is now blocking the storm drain... wish they would put them away on trash day

[srainhoutx]

09182014 mcd0387.gif

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0387
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
954 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SE NM...W TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 181353Z - 181853Z

SUMMARY...A NARROW AXIS OF FOCUSED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. A GENERAL SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED...BUT HIGH
RATES IN THE HEAVIER CORES...COMBINED WITH SLOW MOVEMENT...MAY
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING CONVECTION IN WEST TEXAS HAD THE RADAR
CHARACTER OF A SOAKING...RATHER THAN EXCESSIVE EVENT. THE
ENVIRONMENT MAY BE DECEIVING...HOWEVER... WITH SOME EVIDENCE TO
SUGGEST A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS NEAR 1.7
INCHES AND ABOVE...WHICH IS HIGH FOR ANY TIME OF YEAR IN THIS
REGION. THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS UNUSUALLY HIGH AT AROUND 16000 FT
ABOVE GROUND FOR A LOW LEVEL PARCEL PER THE 12Z MAF RAOB. DUAL POL
DATA FROM LUBBOCK ESTIMATED POCKETS OF 1.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR AND
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

AN MCV APPRAOCHING FROM THE WEST AND A WEAK BUT WELL ESTABLISHED
COLD POOL TO THE NORTH...WILL PUSH NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. CAPE INCREASES IN THIS DIRECTION...AND DEEP
LAYER STEERING WINDS BECOME PARTICULARLY LIGHT THIS
MORNING...WHILE INFLOW AT 850 MB AND ESPECIALLY 700 MB REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE 10Z AND 11Z
HRRR SHOW A PARTICULARLY STRONG SIGNAL...WITH WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2
INCH RAINFALL AND ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS THROUGH 19Z.
INTENSIFICATION OF THE PRE-EXISTING MCV...AND/OR DEVELOPMENT OF A
NEW MCV...IS POSSIBLE JUDGING BY MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE MAF
RAOB...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD LATENT HEAT RELEASE. THIS
COULD FURTHER ORGANIZE THE EVENT ON A SMALL SCALE...MAKING
ISOLATED 4-5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF LUBBOCK AND
NORTH OF I-20.

BURKE

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

[srainhoutx]

US 290 is flooding in the construction area @ Spring Cypress.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
916 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TXC201-291-339-373-407-181715-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0149.140918T1416Z-140918T1715Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTGOMERY TX-HARRIS TX-LIBERTY TX-POLK TX-SAN JACINTO TX-
916 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 914 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CLEVELAND...KINGWOOD...SHEPHERD...SPLENDORA...PATTON VILLAGE...
ROMAN FOREST...WOODBRANCH...COLDSPRING...PLUM GROVE...NORTH
CLEVELAND...LAKE HOUSTON...NEW CANEY...PORTER AND TARKINGTON
PRAIRIE.

THE RAINFALL AREA WAS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 MPH.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
925 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT

* AT 925 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
TOMBALL...JERSEY VILLAGE...CYPRESS AND WILLOWBROOK.

[srainhoutx]

Watching storm redevelopment to or NW and W carefully. Any additional heavy storms will only add to the ongoing flooding issues across Western Harris and Montgomery Counties.

[unome]

US 290 is flooding in the construction area @ Spring Cypress.

at Cypress Rosehill also

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1017 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 1015 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CLEVELAND...KINGWOOD...SHEPHERD...SPLENDORA...PATTON VILLAGE...
ROMAN FOREST...WOODBRANCH...PLUM GROVE...NORTH CLEVELAND...LAKE
HOUSTON...NEW CANEY...PORTER AND TARKINGTON PRAIRIE.

BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SINCE 8 AM.

[srainhoutx]

09182014 mcd0388.gif

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0388
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1114 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX...SE TX...FAR SW LA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 181513Z - 182013Z

SUMMARY...LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD A REGION
CHARACTERIZED BY UNUSUALLY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR. WHEN
COMBINED WITH WET SOILS FROM RECENT RAINS...INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING APPEAR LIKELY THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING CONVECTION HAD BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN SE
TX...AND IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BRUSHES ACROSS THIS REGION...ENHANCING DEEP LAYER ASCENT AS
WELL AS SOUTHWESTERLY INFLOW WINDS AT 850 TO 600 MB. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN PREDICTING NEW CONVECTION UP INTO
THE TX HILL COUNTRY ALONG A SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. AN
UNUSUALLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL YIELD
VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN AND
PERSISTENCE IS EXPECTED OVER SE TX AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING 700 MB
CIRCULATION SEEN IN THE RAP BY 20Z. THOUGH STRENGTHENING WIND
FIELDS MAY CARRY THE EVENT EAST TOWARD SW LOUISIANA...THE WESTERN
FLANK OF LINE SEGMENTS OR THE FLANK OF A SMALL MCS WILL MORE
STRONGLY INTERCEPT INFLOW...PLACING THE GREATEST THREAT OF
EXCESSIVE RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING IN THE VICINITY OF HOUSTON AND
EVENTUALLY POINTS TO THE EAST.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN...BROAD MESOCYCLONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED OWING TO VEERING WIND PROFILES AND ABOUT 25 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. BOTH THE MEAN 0-6 KM WINDS AND BUNKERS MOTION FOR
RIGHT-MOVING CELLS ARE AROUND 10 KT...BUT THOSE CELLS THAT DEVELOP
MESOCYCLONES WILL TEND TO ANCHOR HEAVY RATES...ON A SPORADIC
BASIS. SUCH ACTIVITY WAS ALREADY OBSERVED WHERE FLASH FLOODING WAS
REPORTED JUST NORTHWEST OF HOUSTON AT 1430Z. WHEREVER CELLS BECOME
ANCHORED 4 INCHES OF RAIN COULD OCCUR IN UNDER 2 HOURS.

BURKE

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...SJT...

[Andrew]

Looks like the shortwave/ MCS is currently East of the Conroe area and is slowly moving to the East. Lower level winds are from the southwest, helping to filter storms and create some general back building as mid level motion supports a slow Southeast movement. Points East of Houston should see rain the longest for the next couple of hours as general drying is expected farther to the Northwest. This afternoon and overnight looks interesting as we have another shortwave disturbance ejecting SE from the South Plains Region that is currently producing flash flooding around the Abilene region. We will see what type of stabilization is caused by the storms this morning because upper level dynamics aren't the most impressive. A weak trough axis is currently located across central Texas, extending eastward into parts of Louisiana and as mentioned by the WPC, this will be the area to watch for further development. Current satellite data indicates good clearing around Central Texas which will only destabilize the atmosphere sooner. Dew points are in the mid to upper 70s with RH in the 80-90% range. Storms that fire through this region will produce very heavy rain in a short period of time. This could continue into the night as some of the Hi-res models indicate another MCS developing over central or west Texas as the disturbance over Abilene moves SE. Where that tracks will be the area to watch for some of the highest totals overnight tonight.

[unome]

rotation even shows up on radar east of Montgomery Co

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-N0Q-1-24

long loop radar: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... -N0Q-1-200

[BlueJay]

I do see the rotation unome-WOW!
Thanks for posting that.
It pouring down here at the moment.

[Rip76]

That's a lot of rain headed toward Pearland, from the SW.

[kayci]

Alvin is getting SLAMMED right now.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
102 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TXC039-071-157-167-201-291-182000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0154.140918T1802Z-140918T2000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-LIBERTY TX-FORT BEND TX-BRAZORIA TX-GALVESTON TX-
CHAMBERS TX-
102 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 1258 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED CONTINUED LOCALLY HEAVY
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 2 AND 3
INCHES PER HOUR ARE BEING OBSERVED BETWEEN HOUSTON AND GALVESTON
ISLAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WILL CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE TRANSITIONING EAST NORTHEAST INTO CHAMBERS AND LIBERTY COUNTIES
WITH TIME.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN PASADENA...PEARLAND...LEAGUE CITY...BAYTOWN...
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI CITY...GALVESTON ISLAND WEST END...GALVESTON
CAUSEWAY...GALVESTON ISLAND EAST END...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
LA PORTE...ALVIN...DICKINSON...STAFFORD...LA MARQUE...SANTA FE...
SEABROOK...WEBSTER...LIBERTY AND DAYTON.

[srainhoutx]

Updated Excessive Rainfall Outlook as been issued for the next 24 hours and includes a Moderate Risk across portions of Central Texas. As Andrew mentioned, it does appear that Central Texas is seeing destabilization of the atmosphere as clouds cleared out and a cold pocket aloft was left behind form the overnight storm complex that brought up to 7 inches of rain in some locations near the I-35 Corridor.

09182014 1747Z Excessive Rainfall Outlook Day 1 94ewbg.gif

09182014 1724Z TX VIS latest.jpg