September 2014: Seasonably Warm & Dry To End The Month

[Ptarmigan]

QUESTION

With this cold front zooming our way from Canada,
are we done with cane season?

Wouldn't write it off yet.

[Katdaddy]

A slight chances of afternoon thunderstorms across SE TX with drier air in place along with some ridging. The strength and timing of frontal boundary is still a tough call but continues to look like late Friday into SE TX and possibly to the coast Saturday. It may be a little cooler however the much cooler airmass will be N and NE of SE TX. Rainfall chance begin to increase going into the weekend and will be watching for the potential of heavy rains. Of interest is the lower pressure and unsettled GOM pattern as noted by this morning's Houston-Galveston AFD. We are in the peak of hurricane season.

THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE IF WE ARE FACING A HIGH RAINFALL EVENT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. DOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STEER EASTERN-BASED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES INTO AN ALREADY
UNSETTLED AND HIGHLY MOIST UPPER TEXAS COASTAL ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHANCE COASTAL COUNTY AND MARITIME POPS WILL REMAIN AS BOOKMARKS

[srainhoutx]

Katdaddy just posted, the weekend may offer a chance of seeing some unsettled weather. That cool front does not appear to have much in the way of upper level support or trajectory to bring the chilly air expected in the Northern Plains very far S into Texas. The main upper level energy looks to track across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes and on E. A front will approach Texas on Thursday and may fire off storms to our N. A secondary piece of upper level energy (short wave) appears to cross the Plains on Friday and that may push the front a bit further S into S Central Texas and perhaps near or just S of the I-10 Corridor. This will not be a 'blue norther' for Texas, so don't expect much of a cool down. Like last weekend when we had a weak boundary draped across the area and torrential rains developed for some last Sunday, a somewhat similar situation may develop as the front serves as focal point for showers/storms to develop. The main issue I see is potential cloudiness as a weak upglide or over running light showers develop inland instead of daytime heating and convective temperature driven storm development along the sea/bay breezes.

The next issue is what becomes of potential Tropical system Odile expected to develop just offshore of the Pacific Coast of Mexico and move NW and possibly turning NE across the Baja Peninsula early next week. As witnessed early yesterday across Arizona and Nevada, EPAC tropical systems and their moisture (Post Tropical Cyclone Norbert) can lead to flash flooding particularly in the Desert SW. The Phoenix area received about half a years' worth of annual rainfall Sunday night into yesterday afternoon which was about 7 inches. The fly in the ointment for our Region is some of the models are suggesting deep tropical moisture from the Pacific move ENE across Northern Mexico and into Texas next week. Add to the mix unsettled weather developing in the Western Gulf and stalled boundary and you have a recipe for a possible heavy rainfall event. The monsoonal trough is expected to generate areas of general broad areas of low pressure from the Bay of Campeche across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the Eastern Pacific near the Coast of Mexico over the next 5-10 days. There is also indications that convectively couple Kelvin Wave (cckw) will near the area next week as well as some tropical enhancement or lift/rising air which is conducive for thunderstorm development from the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation). With all that said it does appear that an unsettled pattern may well develop and persist into the end of next week. As always, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast and expect changes as we see how things develop over the next several days.

[tireman4]

From the HGX NWS AFD this morning:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 090942
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
442 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
YESTERDAY`S LESSENED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE
SAME FACTORS THAT WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING TODAY`S SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY...RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER RIDGING
LEADING TO NON-DIFFULENT/UNI-DIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NICELY DEPICTING THIS SWATH OF DRY AIR FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS EAST INTO LOUISIANA...SATELLITE DERIVED VALUES DIPPING BELOW
2 INCH PWATS. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY`S AREAL PRECIPITABLE COVERAGE OF
NO MORE THAN 20-30% IS FORECAST BASED UPON THE STATIC NATURE OF THIS
MORNING`S DRIER AND (SLIGHTLY) MORE STABLE PATTERN...ALONG WITH NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF A FRIDAY/SATURDAY
COLD FRONTAL. ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE WAVERED IN THE CONFIDENCE
OF THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...IT IS STILL FORECAST
TO MAKE A SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS ENTRANCE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
QUITE THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUT IT WILL ENCOUNTER
SOUTHERN PLAINS FLATTENED RIDGING. THE BACKING AIR MASS WILL BE FAIRLY
COLD AND DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT LATEST NWP MODELING KEEPS
THE COLDEST AIR OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH AN ANTICIPATED MILDER
TURN TO WEEKEND WEATHER. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE 1030-ISH MB SURFACE
HIGH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY MAY NOT TAKE THAT PREFERRED STRAIGHT
SOUTH MERIDIONAL TREK (FOR A `COOL OUTBREAK`)...MORE OF AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO ITS EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL AFFECT
THE BOUNDARY`S TRACK TOWARDS THE COAST...MOST LIKELY SLOWLY IT UP
OVER THE CWA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WHAT IS OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IS A BACKING WIND TO THE NORTHEAST...MORE OVERCAST INHIBITING AFTERNOON
WARMTH TO THE MEAN UPPER 80S. WHAT WILL BE FINE TUNED IN THE COMING
DAYS WILL BE THE QPF...ALL DETERMINANT UPON THE NATURE OF THE CONVERGENT
FOCUS PROVIDED BY WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MORE-DIFFUSE LOW-MID LEVEL BOUNDARY.
AS OF NOW...GRIDS REFLECT LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE IF WE ARE FACING A HIGH RAINFALL
EVENT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. DOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK MAY STEER EASTERN-BASED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES INTO AN ALREADY
UNSETTLED AND HIGHLY MOIST UPPER TEXAS COASTAL ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...
SLIGHT CHANCE COASTAL COUNTY AND MARITIME POPS WILL REMAIN AS BOOKMARKS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS GENERALLY LOWER PRESSURE/UNSETTLED GULF OF MEXICO
PATTERN. 31

[Katdaddy]

Something to watch through the weekend. From this afternoon's HOU-GAL AFD:

ANOTHER ISSUE OF NOTE THAT MAY (OR MAY NOT) PLAY A ROLE IN THIS
UPCOMING FCST...POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING IN-
TO THE ERN GULF (SEE TPC 5 DAY OUTLOOK). AT THIS TIME...NOT TOO
CONCERNED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT PER SE (CURRENTLY LOWISH PERCENT-
AGE OF FORMATION) BUT THE INCREASED MOISTURE IT COULD PUSH THIS
WAY. SO CLEAR EYES AND ALL THAT... 41

[srainhoutx]

To further complicate the already complex forecast and potential pattern, the reliable 12Z Euro and GEFS ensemble mean are suggesting a possible tropical system similar to Dolly developing in the Bay of Campeche during the next 48 to 120 hours. Stalled boundaries in the NW Gulf with a developing EPAC cyclone close to the Pacific Coast of Mexico and a general unsettled pattern due to the monsoonal trough/gyre may throw an additional wrench in an already complex and complicated forecast over the next week to 10 days.

[Paul Robison]

Something to watch through the weekend. From this afternoon's HOU-GAL AFD:

ANOTHER ISSUE OF NOTE THAT MAY (OR MAY NOT) PLAY A ROLE IN THIS
UPCOMING FCST...POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING IN-
TO THE ERN GULF (SEE TPC 5 DAY OUTLOOK). AT THIS TIME...NOT TOO
CONCERNED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT PER SE (CURRENTLY LOWISH PERCENT-
AGE OF FORMATION) BUT THE INCREASED MOISTURE IT COULD PUSH THIS
WAY. SO CLEAR EYES AND ALL THAT... 41

Are we looking at another Rita, or Alicia type situation with this disturbance you're talking about? Seriously, if it interacts with this cold front, it could form a pretty powerful storm, couldn't it?

[Ptarmigan]

Thrall saw 38.20 inches in 24 hours, including 32 inches in 12 hours! It was caused by remnant of Hurricane #2, which clearly points to a core rain event. It also claimed 215 lives.

1921 San Antonio Floods
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_ ... nio_floods

The storms had a lot of lighting and thunder as described in this account. Interestingly, there was a lull at night and another strong thunderstorm came and dumped more rain. It also spawned tornadoes and damaged buildings.

Texas Floods of 1921
http://pubs.usgs.gov/wsp/0488/report.pdf

Weather map shows a surface high over Alabama, sending moisture into Texas. There is another surface high over Gulf of Mexico.

The Unparalleled Thrall Texas Rainstorm
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/081 ... 7-0195.pdf

[Ptarmigan]

Are we looking at another Rita, or Alicia type situation with this disturbance you're talking about? Seriously, if it interacts with this cold front, it could form a pretty powerful storm, couldn't it?

Not likely. Just rain and thunderstorms.

[Paul Robison]

Katdaddy just posted, the weekend may offer a chance of seeing some unsettled weather. That cool front does not appear to have much in the way of upper level support or trajectory to bring the chilly air expected in the Northern Plains very far S into Texas. The main upper level energy looks to track across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes and on E. A front will approach Texas on Thursday and may fire off storms to our N. A secondary piece of upper level energy (short wave) appears to cross the Plains on Friday and that may push the front a bit further S into S Central Texas and perhaps near or just S of the I-10 Corridor. This will not be a 'blue norther' for Texas, so don't expect much of a cool down. Like last weekend when we had a weak boundary draped across the area and torrential rains developed for some last Sunday, a somewhat similar situation may develop as the front serves as focal point for showers/storms to develop. The main issue I see is potential cloudiness as a weak upglide or over running light showers develop inland instead of daytime heating and convective temperature driven storm development along the sea/bay breezes.

The next issue is what becomes of potential Tropical system Odile expected to develop just offshore of the Pacific Coast of Mexico and move NW and possibly turning NE across the Baja Peninsula early next week. As witnessed early yesterday across Arizona and Nevada, EPAC tropical systems and their moisture (Post Tropical Cyclone Norbert) can lead to flash flooding particularly in the Desert SW. The Phoenix area received about half a years' worth of annual rainfall Sunday night into yesterday afternoon which was about 7 inches. The fly in the ointment for our Region is some of the models are suggesting deep tropical moisture from the Pacific move ENE across Northern Mexico and into Texas next week. Add to the mix unsettled weather developing in the Western Gulf and stalled boundary and you have a recipe for a possible heavy rainfall event. The monsoonal trough is expected to generate areas of general broad areas of low pressure from the Bay of Campeche across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the Eastern Pacific near the Coast of Mexico over the next 5-10 days. There is also indications that convectively couple Kelvin Wave (cckw) will near the area next week as well as some tropical enhancement or lift/rising air which is conducive for thunderstorm development from the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation). With all that said it does appear that an unsettled pattern may well develop and persist into the end of next week. As always, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast and expect changes as we see how things develop over the next several days.

Does weather regimen this mean even stronger, windier electrical storms than we experienced last week?

[Katdaddy]

A rather dry and hot day across E and SE TX before thunderstorm chances begin to increase Thursday. Interesting weekend weather ahead with a cool front moving into the Upper TX Coastal waters late Friday/early Saturday with slow moving high rainfall cells creating a potential flood threat possible Friday and into the weekend. Also tropical disturbance looks to move into the EGOM this weekend leading to an unsettled GOM weather. Not to concerned about tropical development currently however the upcoming weather pattern will have me watching the GOM this weekend and into next week. A few items that have my attention:

Its early Sept within the heart of hurricane season.

An early season cool front forecast to move just offshore of the Gulf Coast and stall.

A tropical disturbance forecast to move into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico (EGOM).

A large high pressure over the E Central US drifting slowly E into the Atlantic.

A very warm Gulf of Mexico (GOM).

[srainhoutx]

A rather complex and complicated forecast continues to develop over the next week or so. The upper ridge will remain in control today into tomorrow across our Region and then changes lurk as a ‘cool front’ sags S into Texas and likely pulls up stationary across Central Texas tomorrow evening. A secondary surge of ‘cooler air’ associated with an upper air disturbance embedded within the trough across the Central United States will push the frontal boundary further S and eventually stall somewhere along the NE Mexico/Coastal Texas/Louisiana area offshore on Saturday. Showers/storms may accompany the front as high PW’s of 2+ inches pool along and S of the front. This front will likely not clear us out as over running clouds and showers develop behind the front throughout the weekend into next week.

To further complicate the weather picture is a surge of tropical moisture originating from the Western Caribbean moving into the Western Gulf as a tropical wave moves W into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow. There are some indications that a weak area of low pressure may form in the SW Gulf tomorrow into Friday as well. To further complicate things, Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression 15E has formed SSW of Acapulco and is drifting NNW. That tropical cyclone is expected to develop into a Category 2 Hurricane as it near the Baja Peninsula Sunday into Monday next week. Deep tropical moisture from that cyclone may spread ENE across Northern Mexico into Texas early next week. Additionally, the convectively coupled Kelvin Wave we have mentioned is progressing E across the Pacific toward Mexico and should arrive in the Western Atlantic Basin in the next 7 to 10 days enhancing tropical convection development across the SW Caribbean and the Western Gulf. We can see the convective enhancement occurring across the Eastern Pacific with 3 areas of disturbed weather (TD 15E, 95E, 96E). The monsoon trough across the SW Caribbean into the Eastern Pacific remains very active and additional tropical development may be an issue as we head into next week both in the Eastern Pacific and the Western Caribbean and the Western Gulf. Stalled fronts in the NW Gulf tend to raise an eyebrow and the warm water of the Western Caribbean and the Western Gulf are virtually untouched this summer other than TS Dolly. Vertical instability is expected into remain favorable in those areas over the next 7-10 days.

09102014 10Z Day 5 to 7 QPF p168i.gif

09102014 12Z EPAC avn-l.jpg

[srainhoutx]

92L has been designated just E of the Bahamas. The initial motion appears to be WSW and may enter the Gulf before the 'cool front' stalls along the NW/Central Gulf Coast and the incoming trough picks up this disturbance.

09102014_1730_goes13_x_vis2km_92LINVEST_20kts-1015mb-262N-751W_100pc.jpg

09102014 92L_tracks_18z.png

09102014 92L_intensity_18z.png

[tireman4]

From the afternoon HGX AFD:

00
FXUS64 KHGX 102022
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
322 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A SHOWER OR TWO
THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANOTHER HOT DAY EXPECTED TOMORROW AS A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING 850 TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
AROUND 20C. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR BETWEEN
600 AND 300 MB. THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AS A
SECONDARY PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA DIVES
TO THE SOUTH. THIS SECONDARY SURGE OF ENERGY WILL HELP TO PUSH THE
FRONT TO THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THOUGH. LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP
INITIATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY. GFS IS SHOWING PWATS
CLIMBING TO NEAR 2.30" AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY (NEAR THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO MEXICO BRINGING MOIST AIR INTO TEXAS
FROM THE SOUTH. OMEGA FIELDS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW LIFT
STARTING ALONG A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONT. MAIN
CONCERN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING STORM
MOTIONS IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE.

AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED SOUTH FROM
MONTANA WILL QUICKLY PULL TO THE EAST TAKING THE COOLER AIR WITH
IT. THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
KEEP THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS. NOT
SUPRISINGLY THIS ALSO ALLOWS FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. 23

&&

.MARINE...

AN INCREASE BACK TO 10-15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING
THEN WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER WINDS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS WILL BACK TO THE EAST AND BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT NEARS. THIS SHOULD IN TURN LEAD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON TAP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE POOLED OVER THE AREA. 45

&&

.AVIATION...

UPPER RIDGING HOLDING STRONG TODAY AND VFR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z. STRATUS DECK FORMATION SHOULD ENCOMPASS CLL/UTS/CXO AT
LEAST AT TIMES TOWARD MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN TOMORROW.

AVIATION OUTLOOK PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA AS FRONT STALLS IN SETX AND SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE AREA TERMINALS FRIDAY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 45

[srainhoutx]

A quick afternoon update. 92L is expect to drift W across the Gulf and approach the NE Mexico/South Texas Coast in about 6-7 days. Development is not expected at this time, but with a low level circulation suspected already, the NHC has tasked RECON to fly tomorrow and investigate this disturbance if necessary. The fly in the ointment continues to be just how far S the cool front actually makes it as well as moisture from TS Odile in the Eastern Pacific and a surge of tropical moisture heading WNW from the Western Caribbean into the Western Gulf. The Kelvin wave that has been mentioned continue to progress E over the Eastern Pacific as well. The main concern now is that the front will not make it into the NW Gulf and may pull up stationary somewhere across our Coastal tier of Counties. The afternoon update from the WPC/HPC has increased the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) during the next 7 days as well.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update From Jeff:

Early season cool front and westward moving tropical wave will combine to produce widespread rainfall Friday-Saturday.

A cold front currently over N TX will slowly sag southward and into SE TX Friday afternoon. At the same time a strong tropical wave over the SE Gulf of Mexico will move northwest and landfall along the lower TX and N MX coasts this evening spreading deep tropical moisture inland ahead of the frontal boundary. Rain chances will begin to increase this afternoon as upper ridging aloft begins to flatten and break down. Activity today should be tied to the inland movement of the seabreeze front and remain fairly isolated to scattered.

Frontal boundary approaches the region Friday with numerous showers and thunderstorms expect from SW TX into E TX as the boundary interacts with the pooling tropical moisture associated with the tropical wave. PWS climb to 2.2-2.3 inches which is nearing +2 SD above normal for early September and storm motions are forecast to slow into the 5-10mph range raising the threat for excessive short term rainfall. Well defined boundary along with some weak upper support point toward a very wet Friday night into Saturday morning with potential for slow moving very heavy rainfall.

Rainfall amounts will likely average 1-2 inches Friday night-Saturday with isolated totals over 5 inches possible.

Frontal boundary stalls over the area and eventually washes out over the weekend leaving deep tropical moisture in place. Expect periods of showers and thunderstorms to continue Sunday-early next week with PWS remaining near 2.0 inches and NW flow aloft providing ripples of energy aloft to work on a moist SE TX air mass.

Temperatures will cool some this weekend mainly due to the clouds and rainfall and not so much any cold air advection. Outbreak of cold air out of Canada into the central plains (high of 50 at Denver tomorrow) will be shunted more eastward than southward.  
 

[srainhoutx]

As mentioned yesterday, 92L is expected to remain weak as it travels W across the Gulf over the weekend into early next week. With a stalled boundary nearby and abundant tropical moisture potentially pooling across the NW Gulf of Mexico from S Texas to Louisiana, we may need to keep an eye on the potential for heavy rainfall mainly along and S of the I-10 Corridor. Also with abundant tropical moisture lurking near the Pacific Coast of Mexico from TS Odile and a robust convectively coupled Kelvin wave nearing the Western Atlantic Basin, there is some potential of an extended unsettled pattern developing that may last well into next week. We will see.

[BlueJay]

I know that it is hurricane season and all but we have lost power for a brief second twice this afternoon. (Reboot computer time-Grrr!). I'm not certain what is going on but I don't think that this happened due to the weather.

[srainhoutx]

Storm are firing along the cold frontal boundary this afternoon. The 'cool front' looks to stall across Central Texas this evening and begin to move a bit further S tomorrow with additional storms firing along the front during the day. There is still some concern that the front may pull up stationary near the Texas/Louisiana Coast on Saturday. Rich tropical moisture is increasing across the Western Gulf this afternoon and heading NW towards Coastal Texas. Also, the weak are of disturbed weather (92L) is expect to continue moving W across Florida and enter the Gulf late on Sunday into Monday and near The Texas Coast next Wednesday night or Thursday. Development is not expected at this time but a may enhance rain chances next week.

09112014 2023Z TX VIS latest.jpg

09112014 20Z 7 Day QPF p168i.gif

09112014 18Z 92L_tracks_18z.png

09112014 18Z 92L_intensity_18z.png

[texoz]

92L actually has some decent presentation on radar.