August 2014 - Showers/Storms Possible To End The Month

[djmike]

I'm not too thrilled either. Yes we had a better chance here in Beaumont, but the action happened just to the east of us as well. Rose City/Vidor on eastward.... From the 3-4" forecasted, I got 0.63" which I guess is better than nothing since I didn't get a drop all week from ANYTHING tropical. As usual, looks like LA is the bulls eye.

[Andrew]

You forecasters are so full of crap. You predicted 40-50% or more rain everyday this week, nothing. 2 or more inches of rain overnight, nothing. Still holding on to these high rain chances all weekend, but it's still dissipating offshore. Time to bust out the sprinklers, again.

Then I guess you don't understand what a 40-50% chance of rain means. That turned out to be pretty accurate for SE Texas.

[Rip76]

I'm just watching this try to come on shore.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... R&loop=yes

It can't be that much dry air, can it?

[djmike]

I'm so tired of trying and praying for something to cross the shoreline. I wouldn't hold my breath.

[srainhoutx]

With all the moaning and groaning about lack of rainfall, we still not have hit 100F this summer at College Station and IAH. Fall is coming. The days are getting shorter day by day...so there is that bit of good news in the weather department.

[djjordan]

I for one am very pleased with the summer of 2014!!! Wish every summer could be like this in SE Texas

[Ptarmigan]

With all the moaning and groaning about lack of rainfall, we still not have hit 100F this summer at College Station and IAH. Fall is coming. The days are getting shorter day by day...so there is that bit of good news in the weather department.

Historically, Fall is the wettest season along with Spring.

[sambucol]

I've noticed it's getting dark earlier. Bring on fall!!!

[BlueJay]

It's such a cool evening! Feels like fall tonight!

[ticka1]

Fall will officially start in 22 days and yes it was very nice sitting outside tonight!!!

[Texaspirate11]

You forecasters are so full of crap. You predicted 40-50% or more rain everyday this week, nothing. 2 or more inches of rain overnight, nothing. Still holding on to these high rain chances all weekend, but it's still dissipating offshore. Time to bust out the sprinklers, again.

Our forecasters have done a yeoman's job with this storm. IF YOU know how to read and understand what is being said - they nailed it - this was a coastal event. I got 3.5 inches, and that's what was forecasted for my area.

Nice name Cromagnum - Peace out.

[Andrew]

Mid level weakness should be present again tomorrow as another wave of higher PW values cross through. Higher res models are pretty bullish about scattered storms showing up on radar tomorrow morning into the early evening. Generally I expect better coverage compared to yesterday as the weakness is centered closer to home and moisture isn't robbed to the east. Similar to previous days, those closer to the coast have higher chances of rain and coverage while those farther inland should see less coverage and more scattered/isolated activity.


Texas Tech WRF early afternoon Sunday:

dom_2km_sfc_dbz_f18.gif

HRRR early afternoon Sunday:

1ref_t5sfc_f13.png

[srainhoutx]

Showers and storms are developing from Matagorda Bay NE into Metro Houston this morning. The early morning surface analysis suggests a weak trough that brought nearly 8 inches of rain to the Lake Charles area yesterday is edging slowly W while across the Southern Plains a short wave will move from W to E today. PW's are still rather high in the 2.2 To 2.4 Range. These showers and heavier storms are capable of dropping 1 to 2 inches of rain per hour as the airmass is still very tropical. The best coverage today appears to be along the HWY 59 Corridor, but may reach inland to Waller/NW Harris/Montgomery Counties later today. Storms are possible further N as that upper air disturbance crosses the Southern Plains this afternoon with daytime heating.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/31/14 1332Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1315Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:0825Z 1007Z DMSP SSMIS:1052Z NASA TRMM:1130Z
.
LOCATION...E TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...CRP...HGX......
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...HEAVY RAIN CENTERED MID TEXAS COASTAL AREA...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST NASA MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS
OVER EASTERN TEXAS AT 1130Z SHOWED A MAX AREAL 10 MILE AREAL AVERAGE
INSTANTANEOUS RAIN RATE OF 0.92"/HR CENTERED ON CALHOUN COUNTY WITH
A SECONDARY MAX OF 0.90"/HR IN REFUGIO COUNTY. NEXT HIGHEST RATE
WAS 0.55"/HR ALONG THE WHARTON-JACKSON COUNTY BORDER AT THE TIME.
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS HAS SOME PERSISTENCE OF MODERATE TO
HVY RAIN IN THE AREA...BUT MAYBE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS RAIN HAS SPREAD
OUT AND EXPANDED GENERALLY NE TO BRAZORIA/
S FT BEND COUNTY SINCE THE TIME OF THE SATELLITE PASS. BIG PICTURE
FROM OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING SHOWED RELATIVE MIN OF PWAT WE HAVE
BEEN FOLLOWING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT TURNED NORTH AS
IT WENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND INLAND EASTERN LA...
S MS...S ALABAMA INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THIS HAS MOVED THE
MOISTURE PLUME THAT YESTERDAY WAS IN THE WESTERN GULF WEST TO THE TEXAS
COAST AND ORIENTED SSW TO NNE CONCENTRATING THE HIGHEST MOISTURE ALONG THE
MID TEXAS COAST...WHILE OTHER HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY'S
PLUME HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO THE TN AND EASTERN OHIO VALLEY.
GENERALLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL 850MB WINDS BLOWING NEARLY PARALLEL THE MORE
CONCENTRATED MOISTURE FROM S TX NORTH/NE ACROSS MID TEXAS COAST..MAKING
INDIVIDUAL CELLS VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. JUST A MATTER OF ANY
TRAINING ACTIVITY AND ACCUMULATION THAT MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FF.
DON'T SEE ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARY PER SE ON SATELLITE...BUT THERE ARE
CONVERGENT BANDS JUST OFFSHORE THAT WERE CONVERGING ONTO THE COAST FROM
ARANSAS TO CALHOUN COUNTY AND THEN OBSCURED OR MERGED FROM HERE NORTH/NE
IN THE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HVY RAIN AREA AS FAR NORTH AS FT BEND...EVEN
A CELL ON VIS IN HARRIS COUNTY.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1330-1630Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENT BANDS TO
CONTINUE WITH LOCALLY HVY RAINS AND MAY BE ENOUGH TRAINING CELLS FOR HIGH
ENOUGH RAIN ACCUMULATION IN A SHORT ENOUGH TIME PERIOD TO HEIGHTEN FF.
TROUGH STILL TO THE WEST...NO REAL GOOD KICKER YET UPSTREAM AND LITTLE
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST FOR SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL FORCING THAT WILL CONTINUE
AND MOISTURE IS HIGH AND DEEP AS PER GOES WATER VAPOR WITH MAX MOISTURE
VALUES A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE CLIMO.

[Katdaddy]

Last day of August post: A similar environment is in place that brought 7.87" rain to Lake Charles, LA yesterday off to our E. This morning heavy rains are developing along the Middle and Upper TX Coast. Some areas may pick up 2-4" with the potential for even higher amounts.

[jasons2k]

Well, it sprinkled for about 3 minutes.

I hope the stuff to the SW holds together -- those bands setting-up N-S along 45 and 59 in Houston are just east of me.

[unome]

graphic added to NESDIS http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/atmospher ... 311332.gif

already had some rain here, not much, but some & skies are darkening again - happy dance

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Active morning along and south of US 59 as weak shear axis over the NW Gulf has finally pushed slightly inland.

Heavy rainfall focus yesterday over SW LA with a record 7.87 inches being recorded at Lake Charles has shifted slightly inland from the coast today. Very heavy rainfall of 2-3 inches per hour is occurring in a band from Jackson County to Brazoria County. This band is slowly developing to the southeast while cells are lifting to the N and NE. Rainfall should begin to relax in the next 2-3 hours as the air mass begins to stabilize as is typical in such tropical air masses. A little heating inland by early afternoon may result in some additional development NW of US 59, but as with the past several days the main rainfall has focused near the coast and not inland, so I am not sure there will be much development too far NW of US 59 this afternoon.

PWS remain in the 2.1-2.3 inches range and this will support continued excessive rainfall in the heavier cells. Should start to see moisture begin to dry some starting on Monday as ridging begins to reassert itself over the region. PWS will remain in the 1.8-2.1 inch range which is still more than enough to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms with heating. May finally see convection shift back to the later morning and afternoon hours on Monday instead of the midnight-noon timeframe of this past week.

Tropical moisture surge associated with 99L in the western Caribbean Sea will arrive into TX starting Tuesday and once again rain chances may increase for mid week with this additional moisture.

[jasons2k]

This is painful to watch. It's all setting-up to my east and south. Ugh.

[tireman4]

Running nicely in Humble. Looks like more to come. A note to Cromagnum. First, we are glad you are here. Your contributions to the board will make it great. Second, meteorology is a tough science. It is still not "exact". It has come a long way since the 1990's, but is still advancing. As you noticed yesterday, SE Texas did get rain. Bucketloads of it. Just not the Houston area. We are getting our rains today. Andrew posted a great piece on chances of rain and what it really means. The meteorologists on the this board ( both future and current) do an amazing job. This is not an "easy" job. I go out of my way to thank them all ( from Sraintx, Wxman57, Andrew, Jeff..and others..I am sorry if I missed you).