TD #2: East Of the Windward Islands

[srainhoutx]

Newly classified Invest 92L is moving W to WNW imbedded within limited moisture associated with the ITCZ. Conditions do not appear conducive for development at this time.

[wxman57]

Looks impressive this morning, possibly even qualifies as a TD if we could confirm that the well-defined circulation extends down to the surface. Models indicate semi-favorable conditions for development for the next 2 days. Increasing wind shear is predicted by the time it reaches the eastern Caribbean on Thursday. That wind shear will likely rip it apart.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure located
about 1250 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has continued to
increase and show signs of organization during the past few hours.
Satellite data indicate that the circulation has become better
defined and the system is producing a small area of winds near
tropical storm force. Only a small increase in organization of the
shower activity would result in the formation of a tropical
depression as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph during the next day or two. After that time, however,
environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for
development or strengthening. Interests in the Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
500 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

The area of low pressure in the tropical Atlantic has shown an
increase in convective organization today. Despite the fact that the
convection remains somewhat shallow, it has enough coverage and
organization to classify the system as a tropical cyclone. An ASCAT
pass around 1210 UTC was not conclusive in regards to whether the
surface circulation was closed, but given the persistence of the
convection, we are assuming that the circulation is closed and
are initiating advisories at this time.

The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on data from the ASCAT pass.
The environment is marginal, at best, for development during the
next couple of days, as the depression will be moving over marginal
SSTs and into a region characterized by dry air and subsidence as it
approaches the Caribbean Sea. Most of the global model guidance and
the HWRF shows the system weakening and dissipating by 48 to 72
hours. The official forecast follows suit, but the cyclone could
dissipate sooner than shown here. The SHIPS and LGEM intensity
forecasts seem much too high in this scenario, and are not given
much weight in the official forecast.

The initial motion is quickly toward the west or 280/14 knots. The
cyclone will be steered by the Atlantic subtropical ridge during its
life span, and should remain on a westward to west-northwestward
heading with an increase in forward speed. The NHC track forecast is
close to a blend of the HWRF and the GEFS ensemble mean. Note that
the global models are having a difficult time tracking the small
vortex, and confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower
than usual.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 11.6N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 11.9N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 12.3N 48.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 12.8N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 13.4N 54.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 15.0N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[wxman57]

Convection continues to diminish today. It may have reached TS strength briefly yesterday, but it would not qualify for a TD upgrade at this point. Next...

[wxman57]

Definitely an open wave now, and a weak one at that. NHC should be issuing the final advisory shortly.