INVEWST 90L/Bay Of Campeche Disturbed Weather

[srainhoutx]

The NHC has declared the area of disturbed weather along a trough in the Bay of Campeche as 90L. The purpose is likely to begin running the various models to see is anything may develop over the next several days.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ELONGATED MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM
24N92W TO A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 20N94W TO 18N94W. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS GENERATING CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF AS
WELL AS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF A LINE FROM 28N85W SW
TO 21N97W. CHANCES THIS SYSTEM DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS REMAIN LOW...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SW BASIN AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SE
MEXICO TO INCLUDE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE CENTRAL AND SE CONUS AS WELL AS THE FAR W ATLC. THE
RIDGE ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 30N83W WHICH EXTENDS AN AXIS INTO THE NE
GULF AND PROVIDES E-SE FLOW OF 5-15 KT OVER THE EASTERN AS WELL
AS THE NW GULF. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW GULF IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

[Rip76]

If that panned out, the LBAR would be great for Texas.

[wxman57]

Unfortunately, the Limited BARotropic modle (LBAR) is pretty useless for TC forecasting.

[srainhoutx]

RECON has been tasked to fly down a take a look...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT WED 04 JUNE 2014
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUNE 2014
WSPOD NUMBER.....14-004

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 71-
A. 05/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1600Z
D. 19.0N 94.0W
E. 05/1830Z TO 05/2300Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION
NEAR 19.0N 94.5W AT 06/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[Rip76]

Unfortunately, the Limited BARotropic modle (LBAR) is pretty useless for TC forecasting.

Oh yes, it just looked like a beneficial run for us. (Rain wise).

[djmike]

What happened? Where'd it go? Did it fall apart? No updates since Wednesday.

[wxman57]

What happened? Where'd it go? Did it fall apart? No updates since Wednesday.

It moved inland into Mexico just north of Veracruz on Friday. Was probably a tropical depression prior to moving inland, but the recon plane could not reach the center prior to it moving ashore and they could not confirm it.