May: IAH Does Not Reach 90 During May. 1970 Mark Achieved

[redneckweather]

Here comes Ed with his dry monotone forecast. lol Dude seriously, I know exactly what your wording will be like when I come in here to see what's up. Always a depressing tone to your dialogue. Are you on medication?

Kidding.

[srainhoutx]

I am encouraged by the pattern overall. It is looking like the old drought feedback issues we have endured for the past several years is changing. As the long wave pattern begins to slow which is typical of a summer regime, the medium to longer range guidance continues to advertise a general repeating Western trough that is typical of a +PDO and developing El Nino. The latest 7 day QPF suggest that areas that need the rain desperately will benefit as this slowly transitioning long wave pattern develops with yet another Western trough around the first of June.

05222014 10Z 7 Day QPF p168i.gif

05222014 00Z Euro GFS CMC Compare test8.gif

[Andrew]

Good news is both the gfs and Euro continue to show a slow progression east with the mid level shortwave that is currently located over California. While moving east, the closed low should start to degrade, opening up, but will allow for ample amount of moisture to stream in from the South and Southwest. Biggest question or dispute from models stems from location of the shortwave when it slows down/stalls. Euro is more progressive with the synoptic pattern, shifting things further east and north while the gfs stalls the wave closer to the area. Either way we should see scattered storms throughout the area for multiple days next week as multiple disturbances rotate around. GFS indicates that PW values should range from 1.7-2.0 inches and the key will ultimately come from meso features. A favorable pattern for many

[srainhoutx]

The current slow moving long wave trough bodes well for significant rainfall across many locations across our Region that has been lacking any rain due to the long term drought. The guidance continues to advertise organized MSC event over the next 4 days across the Permian Basin and the Northern Edwards Plateau slowly extending East during the Memorial Day Weekend into early next week. The moisture tap from the Eastern Pacific and Western Gulf suggest PW's may near the 2.0 mark which is 2-3 standard deviations above normal for this time of year across the Region.

[jasons2k]

With The Niño in place and a +PDO flip, maybe, just maybe, the wetter models and trends will start to win out. These rains over central and NW Texas could help prevent dry feedback into the death ridge this summer, further helping things.

[Andrew]

With The Niño in place and a +PDO flip, maybe, just maybe, the wetter models and trends will start to win out. These rains over central and NW Texas could help prevent dry feedback into the death ridge this summer, further helping things.

It is nice to see such a favorable pattern take shape for the area. A positive PDO (if it's substained) is very influential on weather around North America and in particular Texas (in my opinion). We haven't seen a positive phase of the PDO index since 2010 and that was short lived. Overall most of the 21st century has been in a negative phase and we have felt the impacts. One of my biggest concerns with the longevity of an El Nino event, was intensity and longevity. Both of these factors should do better with a +PDO. Overall the "longer-term" pattern looks good for a lot of the area. As for next week, models continue to come together on a solution and have begun meeting in the middle on where the shortwave stalls. Unfortunately models indicate it may stall just a little too far east to give us the more amplified rain chances, but Wednesday and Thursday still look good for widely scattered storms. Still just under a week out so a lot will change.

[srainhoutx]

There is a bit of good news concerning the 12Z Euro. It has caved to the GFS suggesting a much slower moving long wave trough and warming upper low. The Euro is in agreement with the GFS suggesting the trough/UL will slowly sag SE next week. It is also noteworthy that TS Amanda has formed in the EPAC and the track has been adjusted to the N ~vs~ W to WNW motion expected earlier. Amanda is now expected to strengthen to a Hurricane and may provide additional tropical moisture as it feeds NE across Texas early next week.

[srainhoutx]

Still looking promising into next week. I hope everyone has a great Memorial Day Weekend and stay safe!

Cheers!

[Andrew]

There is a bit of good news concerning the 12Z Euro. It has caved to the GFS suggesting a much slower moving long wave trough and warming upper low. The Euro is in agreement with the GFS suggesting the trough/UL will slowly sag SE next week. It is also noteworthy that TS Amanda has formed in the EPAC and the track has been adjusted to the N ~vs~ W to WNW motion expected earlier. Amanda is now expected to strengthen to a Hurricane and may provide additional tropical moisture as it feeds NE across Texas early next week.

As Larry Cosgrove noted on FB, Euro is a winner. LFK looks like a winner, with 7 inches plus in 10 days, Harris County generally 2 to 3 inches. GFS 10 day rain MBY is between 0.75 and 1 inch.

Ed Rule suggests GFS will be right, but the Ed Rule did fail 12 days ago, it could fail again.

Didn't the "Ed Rule" suggest we should follow the Euro a couple of days ago?

[srainhoutx]

Just returned from SW Montgomery County and it is nice to see towering cumulus developing as moisture increases over our part of the world. The latest trends via QPF certainly are encouraging. Fingers Crossed!

[Paul Robison]

There is a bit of good news concerning the 12Z Euro. It has caved to the GFS suggesting a much slower moving long wave trough and warming upper low. The Euro is in agreement with the GFS suggesting the trough/UL will slowly sag SE next week. It is also noteworthy that TS Amanda has formed in the EPAC and the track has been adjusted to the N ~vs~ W to WNW motion expected earlier. Amanda is now expected to strengthen to a Hurricane and may provide additional tropical moisture as it feeds NE across Texas early next week.

[/quote][/quote]


(Tee-hee!) WHUP! WHUP! WHUP! I hear Governor Perry's helicopter buzzing......
(and the KHOU-11 News helicopter, too, LOL!)

[srainhoutx]

The Global guidance continues to paint a very wet forecast across our Region. The shorter range High Resolution models have done rather poorly as they have initiated the heaviest rainfall too far N. The latest QPF suggest anywhere from 4-6 inches of rainfall may be possible over the next 7 days with isolated higher amounts possible where slow moving training storms develop. The long wave trough and upper low is expected to meander E into Texas on Monday and begin a slow trek SE from N Texas toward Eastern Texas and Western Louisiana by Friday before filling in and finally weakening next Saturday into Sunday. With multiple outflow boundaries present almost daily and repeating Mesoscale Convective Systems as well as the potential for a Mesoscale Convection Vortex situation developing as the upper low warms or become warmed core, the potential for heavy rainfall increases and therefore the Weather Prediction Center has placed a large portion of Central and SE Texas mainly along and N of I-10 in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall.

To further complicate the forecast for the coming work week, Major Hurricane Amanda in the Eastern Pacific is now a CAT 4 and may become CAT 5 later today as it turns N and begins to finally weaken. The latest track suggests Amanda and its deep tropical moisture will move towards the NE and the SW Coast of Mexico by day 5 and could further aggravate and complicate the forecast and QPF amounts. I would not be surprised to see current Flash Flood Watches across West Central Texas and the Southern Edwards Plateau extended eastward into the San Antonio/Austin area later today and possibly shifting E into portions of SE Texas on Memorial Day and continue into Tuesday. Keep an eye to the skies as everyone is enjoying the Holiday weekend and may not be aware of the current weather situation developing.

05252014 10Z 7 Day QPF p168i.gif

05252014 12Z Day 1 Excessive Rainfall 94ewbg.gif

05252014 06z Day 2 Excessive Rainfall 98ewbg.gif

05252014 07Z Day 3 Excessiive Rainfall 99ewbg.gif

05252014 SPC Day 3 day3otlk_0730.gif

[jasons2k]

Ed & Steve will love the latest Euro. The 10-day precip map bulls-eyes the most rain right over NW Harris County - over 7".

[unome]

hot dang... might need to lower the mower blade before it starts :)

[srainhoutx]

The WPC 18Z Update issues a High Risk for excessive rainfall across portions of the Permian Basin and Northern Edwards Plateau. The Day 2 Slight Rick has expanded a bit E and includes areas along the I-35 Corridor and the NW areas of SE Texas. The Day 2 Outlook is valid from tomorrow afternoon into Tuesday afternoon. As the latest guidance continues to advertise abundant tropical moisture nearing 3 standard deviations above normal, expect further changes in the forecast. It tends to raise an eyebrow when we see a very slow moving mid level feature that is forecast to drop into the NW Gulf and weaken or transition to warm core. If we see an inverted trough set up across East Texas later this week, rainfall amounts could be rather substantial. We will see.

05252014 18Z Day 1 Excessive Rainfall 94ewbg.gif

05252014 18Z day 2 Excessive Rainfall 98ewbg.gif

05252014 12Z Euro f72.gif

05252014 12Z Euro f96.gif

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05252014 12Z Euro f144.gif

05252014 12Z Euro f168.gif

[jasons2k]

I've been waiting years for another warm-core May system to bring us some good rains. The last time we had one, I was watching Cecilia Sinclair cover it.

[TexasBreeze]

The summer of warm core upper lows comes to mind. They produced copious amounts of rain that year. Exact year, I can't be certain about.

[tireman4]

I've been waiting years for another warm-core May system to bring us some good rains. The last time we had one, I was watching Cecilia Sinclair cover it.

Funny you should mention her....here ya go... this is her project.

Poole Productions is a group of people and a horse and rooster who love teaching language…especially English and Spanish. The company was formed after the idea for Frank and Paco was born during a brainstorming session between Gordy, Cecilia and Hannah. It happened while they were returning from the Rio Grande Valley, a place rich in Spanish speakers.
About Cecilia
Cecilia Poole is our executive producer. Cecilia grew up in the Rio Grande Valley which is in the southernmost part of Texas. As a young child she lived in Brownsville, in a house less than 2 miles from the border crossing into Mexico. Later, she moved to Harlingen, which is also in the Rio Grande Valley. Growing up and working in the Rio Grande Valley, Cecilia was surrounded by the rich culture of the Spanish speaking people of south Texas. She loved to hear the beautiful Spanish language and is still enjoying learning more about it. Cecilia obtained a Bachelor of Science in Meteorology from Texas A&M University and has a Masters in Business Administration from the University of Houston. While working for KRIV TV in Houston, she produced numerous features and specials about the environment and weather and also produced a monthly series promoting adoption of children. Cecilia is an advocate for adoption and is involved with PRISMs, an organization promoting awareness about Smith-Magenis Syndrome. She has an adopted daughter, who has Smith-Magenis Syndrome. Cecilia also has a step-daughter, who is also adopted.


http://frankandpaco.com/aboutUs.php

[Andrew]

To show how poorly models are doing, check out the 18z Hi-Res NAM compared to the actual radar:

southplains.gif

nam-hires_namer_006_sim_reflectivity.gif

[Andrew]

Also interesting to note the mid level moisture that is streaming in from Amanda and the Pacific.