ENSO Updates

[jasons2k]

Is there any news or written analysis as to why the more recent forecasts have trended down?

[jasons2k]

I saw a Joe B video and he is forecasting a light-moderate el nino (1.5 or so). He showed analogs of previous El ninos where the preceding years were cooler than average. These types of el ninos resulted in a modocki event where the central pacific cools the most.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research ... _s.html.en

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.6ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.1ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 warmed considerably. Region 3 and 3.4 have warmed, while unchange in Region 4.

[Ptarmigan]

El Nino subsurface map over the past two months.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.7ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 0.8ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

All region has warmed up last week with exception of Region 3.4. I sense El Nino is coming.

[unome]

from WU / Masters' blog http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2677

Ocean Temperatures Reach El Niño Threshold; El Niño Odds Rise Above 65%

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:01 PM GMT on May 12, 2014

For the first time since the fall of 2012, weekly-averaged sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific have reached the threshold needed for an El Niño event to be declared. By definition, an El Niño episode occurs when SSTs are at least +0.5°C from average for three consecutive months in the region 120°W - 170°W, 5°S - 5°N (called the Niño 3.4 region.) The weekly ENSO update issued by NOAA on May 12, 2014, put ocean temperatures in this Niño 3.4 region for the past seven days at +0.5°C from average. An El Niño event is still not a sure thing, though. We saw similar behavior in the fall of 2012, with SSTs warming up above the +0.5°C threshold, prompting NOAA to issue an El Niño Watch. However, the ocean SSTs were not able to hold for the required three month period, and no El Niño event ended up happening. However, this year the odds appear more favorable. NOAA has issued an El Niño Watch for the summer and fall of 2014, giving a greater than 65% chance that an El Niño event will occur during summer, a boost upwards from their >50% chance given the previous month. The May 8 El Niño discussion from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center noted that "There remains uncertainty as to exactly when El Niño will develop and an even greater uncertainty as to how strong it may become. This uncertainty is related to the inherently lower forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring." None of the El Niño models (updated in mid-April 2014) predict La Niña conditions for peak hurricane season, August-September-October 2014, and 16 of 20 predict El Niño conditions. There is currently not a strong Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) over the equatorial Pacific Ocean helping push warm water eastwards towards South America. There have been three of these WWBs so far in 2014, and if we get one more in the next month or two, that should be enough to push the system into a full-fledged El Niño event.

our part of the Gulf looks cooler than norm http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/oc ... ,21.15,786

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 1.2ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

All regions have warmed up.

[Ptarmigan]

from WU / Masters' blog http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2677

Ocean Temperatures Reach El Niño Threshold; El Niño Odds Rise Above 65%

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:01 PM GMT on May 12, 2014

For the first time since the fall of 2012, weekly-averaged sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific have reached the threshold needed for an El Niño event to be declared. By definition, an El Niño episode occurs when SSTs are at least +0.5°C from average for three consecutive months in the region 120°W - 170°W, 5°S - 5°N (called the Niño 3.4 region.) The weekly ENSO update issued by NOAA on May 12, 2014, put ocean temperatures in this Niño 3.4 region for the past seven days at +0.5°C from average. An El Niño event is still not a sure thing, though. We saw similar behavior in the fall of 2012, with SSTs warming up above the +0.5°C threshold, prompting NOAA to issue an El Niño Watch. However, the ocean SSTs were not able to hold for the required three month period, and no El Niño event ended up happening. However, this year the odds appear more favorable. NOAA has issued an El Niño Watch for the summer and fall of 2014, giving a greater than 65% chance that an El Niño event will occur during summer, a boost upwards from their >50% chance given the previous month. The May 8 El Niño discussion from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center noted that "There remains uncertainty as to exactly when El Niño will develop and an even greater uncertainty as to how strong it may become. This uncertainty is related to the inherently lower forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring." None of the El Niño models (updated in mid-April 2014) predict La Niña conditions for peak hurricane season, August-September-October 2014, and 16 of 20 predict El Niño conditions. There is currently not a strong Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) over the equatorial Pacific Ocean helping push warm water eastwards towards South America. There have been three of these WWBs so far in 2014, and if we get one more in the next month or two, that should be enough to push the system into a full-fledged El Niño event.

our part of the Gulf looks cooler than norm http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/oc ... ,21.15,786

The link below is interesting. The Western Gulf of Mexico is cooler than normal. I suspect that is why we are dry as cooler water produces cooler air, which holds less moisture.

[unome]

The link below is interesting. The Western Gulf of Mexico is cooler than normal. I suspect that is why we are dry as cooler water produces cooler air, which holds less moisture.

their Facebook page is https://www.facebook.com/EarthWindMap

I like seeing the air mode best, but both are awesome - they said this wind map inspired them http://hint.fm/wind/ , but they took it to a whole, new level

[jasons2k]

Article on ocean heights. Look at map compared to 1997:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/ocea ... nino-17438

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 1.3ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 has warmed, while Region 3 and 4 are constant. region 3.4 has cooled slightly. Fluctuations likely.

[jasons2k]

Lots of controversy over that 3.4 "cooling" out there. IMHO, it looks like El Nino to me.

[Ptarmigan]

Lots of controversy over that 3.4 "cooling" out there. IMHO, it looks like El Nino to me.

I agree. It is suspect as I think El Nino is here.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Warming up in all regions, except for Region 4. Last week's data for Region 3.4 is suspect.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.9ºC
Niño 3.4 0.6ºC
Niño 3 0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

All regions have warmed except for Region 3, which I find dubious.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 1.4ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 3 has warmed, while the rest has cooled. I think it is fluctuation or error.

[unome]

from http://www.climate.gov/news-features/de ... /enso-blog

United States El Niño Impacts
Author:
Mike Halpert
Thursday, June 12, 2014
http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... -impacts-0

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.6ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Warmed up in Region 1+2, while unchanged in Region 3. Region 3.4 and 4 have cooled, which I find dubious. I think it has warmed overall.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 1.0ºC
Niño 1+2 2.1ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Warmed up in all regions. Region 4 cooled, but I am suspicious about it.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 1.0ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Cooling in Region 1+2, while changed in the rest of the region. I am not sure if this accurate.