May Weather Discussion.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/15/10 1230Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1245Z CIRA BLENDED PW PRODUCT
HYDROESTIMATOR THOUGH 1200Z ALS
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...PROGRESSIVE MCS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WELL DEFINED MCS CONTINUES TO ROLL
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20-25 KT INTO AIRMASS WITH GOES SOUNDER PWS OF
1.5-2.0 INCHES. THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCT AVAILABLE ON AWIPS ALSO SHOWS
A RICH PW PLUME OF GRATER THAN 1.5 INCHES MOVING DUE NORTH OUT OF THE
GULF. HYDROESTIMATOR INDICATES 3 HOUR AMOUNTS OF 1.5-2.5 INCHES WITH
THE MAXIMUM OVER JIM WELLS AND LIVE OAK COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
FOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS AS THE SYSTEM COUNTIES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE
STEADY STATE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.

[Mr. T]

Flash flood watch is definitely a suprise this morning...

Shelter in place warning for Victoria. That's something you don't see everyday...

[srainhoutx]

HPC does have our area in a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall...



EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
722 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 2010

...VALID 12Z SAT MAY 15 2010 - 12Z SUN MAY 16 2010...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...UPGRADED FOR RISK OF EXCESSIVE RNFL ALNG THE CNTRL/UPR TX CST
THIS MRNG...

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
3T5 UTS BPT NGP ALI 3T5.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
CXO 25 WNW BPT 10 ESE LBX CRP 30 NW RKP 25 ESE 3T5 CXO.

...CNTRL/UPR TX CSTL AREA...
MCS MOVG STEADILY SEWD THIS MRNG IS MOVG INTO AN AREA WITH VRY LOW
FFG...LESS THAN ONE INCH PER HR...PER LATEST WGRFC FFG. SYS SHOULD
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND MOV THRU THE AREA BY NOON...BUT RNFL RATES
APRCHG TWO INCHES PER HR WL EASILY EXCEED THE CURRENT FFG ACRS THE
REGION. LATEST SATL DERIVED PWS/GPS PWS ARE SHOWG VALUES NR TWO
INCHES ALNG THE CST...SO THE CNVCTN COULD ACTUALLY INCRS RNFL
INTENSITY DURG THE NEXT SVRL HRS. WV SATL PICS SHOWS SOME UPR DIFL
FLOW...BUT ALSO SHOWS AN UPR JET STREAK PASSG THRU MEX INTO THE
NRN GULF WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION THAT WL CONT TO PROVIDE SOME
UPR DVRG FLOW.

[srainhoutx]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
913 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW MISSION VALLEY 28.84N 97.16W
05/15/2010 M5.74 INCH VICTORIA TX TRAINED SPOTTER

5.74 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED IN A 3 HOUR TIME SPAN

[Katdaddy]

Hey srainhoutx and wxdata, is this obs correct from Palacious yesterday. I see Corpus had a gust of 54mph. Were these winds created by a wake low?

12 21:53 SE 22 G 82 8.00 Fair and Breezy CLR 79 74 29.90 1012.4

[srainhoutx]

Hey srainhoutx and wxdata, is this obs correct from Palacious yesterday. I see Corpus had a gust of 54mph. Were these winds created by a wake low?

12 21:53 SE 22 G 82 8.00 Fair and Breezy CLR 79 74 29.90 1012.4

One has to wonder if the Palacious AWOS was correct. With that said I have seen reports from one Galveston ASOS reporting 48 kts.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
151 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM FLASH FLOOD ROSENBERG 29.55N 95.79W
05/14/2010 FORT BEND TX BROADCAST MEDIA

US 90 ALTERNATE ROAD AT STATE HIGHWAY 36 CLOSED IN BOTH
DIRECTIONS DUE TO FLOODING.

0845 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SSW ALDINE 29.90N 95.38W
05/14/2010 HARRIS TX BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 1 FATAL *** FEEDER ROADS ALONG I-45 IMPASSABLE. ONE
FATALITY FROM A VEHICLE THAT DROVE INTO A RETETION POND
ON THE SOUTHBOUND FEEDER ROAD OF I-45 BETWEEN WEST LITTLE
YORK ROAD AND WEST PARKER ROAD. EXACT TIME OF FATALITY
UNKNOWN.

1045 PM FLASH FLOOD GALVESTON 29.23N 94.89W
05/14/2010 GALVESTON TX NWS EMPLOYEE

STEWART ROAD FLOODED ON GALVESTON ISLAND.

1100 PM MARINE TSTM WIND GALVESTON 29.23N 94.89W
05/14/2010 M55.00 MPH GALVESTON TX ASOS

48 KNOT WIND GUST MEASURED AT PLEASURE PIER PORTS.

[wxdata]

Hey srainhoutx and wxdata, is this obs correct from Palacious yesterday. I see Corpus had a gust of 54mph. Were these winds created by a wake low?

12 21:53 SE 22 G 82 8.00 Fair and Breezy CLR 79 74 29.90 1012.4

That automatic report came in at 12:55am this morning. This is the way I saw the report-


PALACIOS MUNICIPAL,TX (PSX) ASOS reports gust of 116.0 knots from ESE @ 0553Z KPSX 150553Z AUTO 11014G116KT 10SM SQ CLR 22/20 A3001 RMK AO2 PK WND 060116/0548 SLP161 60304 T02170200 10222 20206 402890206 58006



That's a pretty strong wind. NWS did issue a tornado warning for Chambers and Galveston at 11:45pm, but that storm was developing near Galveston Bay.

NWS made no comment on the report and to my knowledge there's been no damage reports from the area, so it's a mystery...

[rnmm]

We got a much needed rain event in our area...last night's storm had some impressive lightning with it...although I know others saw much worse storms than we did. Ours did not last long at all. Can someone tell me how many more "rounds" my area MAY see today as I did have outside activities planned, we are putting together a swing set for my nephew and boy howdy can 3 year olds be impatient LOL....thank you to you all for always being here for all of us!

[srainhoutx]

Some thoughts from Austin/San Antonio on how the next potential event will play out...eyes again turn West...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1118 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE MAX TEMPS TODAY BY 1-4 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA GIVEN CLOUDS AND A RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS. ALSO INCREASED
POPS TONIGHT OUT WEST AND ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN THE 12Z NAM12 AND GFS40...AND 00Z ECMWF QPF
PLACEMENT. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT IS THUNDERSTORM
ORGANIZATION OVER WEST TEXAS TRANSITIONING TO A MCS ROLLING
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. MORE DETAILS THIS AFTERNOON.

[ticka1]

Like Jeff said in his email - every 8-12 hours we should have a disturbance rolling thru. Depends on how fast the last one pulls out which will tell us how long of a break we have between rounds - if any? After all those beautiful gorgeous sunny weekends - its nice to have a cool rainy one.....enjoy it folks.

[wxdata]

Meso low more pronounced down by Wharton. NWS 'contemplating' Flash Flood Warning for Galveston county..

[sleetstorm]

We got a much needed rain event in our area...last night's storm had some impressive lightning with it...although I know others saw much worse storms than we did. Ours did not last long at all. Can someone tell me how many more "rounds" my area MAY see today as I did have outside activities planned, we are putting together a swing set for my nephew and boy howdy can 3 year olds be impatient LOL....thank you to you all for always being here for all of us!

Hey, rnmm, it is good to see you again knowing that you have not been here in a long time. At least it seems like to me, anyway.

[wxdata]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1234 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

TXC167-201-151930-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0020.100515T1734Z-100515T1930Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-GALVESTON TX-
1234 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 1234 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM HOBBY AIRPORT AND
PASADENA SOUTHWARD TO GALVESTON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE LIKELY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

[txflagwaver]

Brings back memories of Allison and Frances....

[rnmm]

We got a much needed rain event in our area...last night's storm had some impressive lightning with it...although I know others saw much worse storms than we did. Ours did not last long at all. Can someone tell me how many more "rounds" my area MAY see today as I did have outside activities planned, we are putting together a swing set for my nephew and boy howdy can 3 year olds be impatient LOL....thank you to you all for always being here for all of us!

Hey, rnmm, it is good to see you again knowing that you have not been here in a long time. At least it seems like to me, anyway.

Thank you sleetstorm...I have been lurking....I just have been reading all the posts on hurricane outlooks etc....but with these storms I wanted to come find out what else we could expect today in my area!!

[djjordan]

Flash Flood Watch cancelled for now .... in the lull before the next MCS which is out west as we speak. Here's the AFD from NWS Houston/Galveston


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
330 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE MCS THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE SRN HALF OF SE TX HAS RAPIDLY
WEAKENED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. RESIDUAL MCV IS MOVING
ACROSS HARRIS COUNTY AND SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY THE
EVENING HOURS. HAVE MAINTAINED 20 POPS THROUGH THE EVENING OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE THINKING IS THAT TODAY`S
CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE AND REDEVELOPMENT WILL
NOT OCCUR. HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER WITH FOR TONIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE NEXT MCS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU/BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE 30 POPS IN PLACE
LATE TONIGHT FOR THE NW THIRD GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY BRUSHING THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. THE WET GROUND
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT SRN HALF. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL FINALLY
LIFT OUT EAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER SE TX SUNDAY WITH NO
CAPPING...LIS OF -7 TO -9...AND CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3500 J/KG.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S. EITHER THE WEAK SFC
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM
OVERNIGHT STORMS...WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE CWA AND SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AIRMASS SHOULD HAVE OPPORTUNITY
TO RECOVER RESULTING IN SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT ANOTHER MCS COULD DEVELOP OVER OR MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENING. HAVE KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS BLANKETED ACROSS THE
AREA. WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE THE MAIN THREAT
AGAIN WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST OF THE SRN PLAINS BY
MONDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY AT
THIS POINT. THE GFS SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE DRYING OUT QUITE A BIT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF KEEPS PWS OF
1.5-1.7 INCHES IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WHICH RESULTS IN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PASSING OVER THE
AREA. PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DRY THE
AIRMASS OUT AND SFC FRONT IS LIKELY TO STALL OVER THE AREA
MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE END RESULT IS TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVER
THE AREA EACH DAY. EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
EACH DAY WITH THE STALLED FRONT OR SEABREEZE SERVING AS A FOCUS
FOR DEVELOPMENT. A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
THE SRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SE TX THESE TWO
DAYS. THIS UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY WHICH GIVES SE
TX A CHANCE TO TOTALLY DRY OUT NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WITH THE LIGHT WINDS.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS EACH DAY.

[sleetstorm]

Is everyone enjoying the lull and interlude thus far and the quantity of rainfall that southeast Texas has received thus far?

[sleetstorm]

Ptarmigan, I noticed two severe thunderstorms that look like they may be moving in your direction. I saw them in motion on KHOU's Dopplar Radar and I saw not only the hues purple and magenta, but also dark blue, light blue, and I think that there was even some white in the coldest cloud tops.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0576
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0521 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 152221Z - 152345Z

ISOLATED SUPERCELL MOVG OVER HEMPSTEAD AND MCCULLOUGH COUNTIES AT
2215Z. THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE PERSISTING NEAR RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW/FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH INTERSECTION WHERE MESO-STORM-SCALE
FORCING AND SHEAR ARE CERTAINLY ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE.

AREA WIND PROFILES DEPICT RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL ELY/SLY FLOW AOB
10 KNOTS RESULTING IN AMBIENT SFC-1KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 100 M2/S2
OR LESS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SHEAR NEAR THE BOUNDARY INTERSECTION
IS LOCALLY GREATER. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CORRIDOR OF STRONG
HEATING AHEAD OF THIS CELL AND IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT RESULTANT
INSTABILITY/FORCING WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH
WIND AS THIS STORM DEVELOPS ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MEANWHILE...DESTABILIZATION AND CAP EROSION ARE UNDERWAY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW ZONE IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM...AND WITHIN
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS AHEAD OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. WV IMAGERY AND
OBJECTIVE DATA SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX MOVING
EAST FROM FAR WEST TX/SERN NM. GIVEN ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
IT IS THIS DEVELOPMENT...IF IT BEGINS TO OCCUR...THAT MAY PROMPT THE
ISSUANCE OF A WATCH ACROSS PARTS THE REGION.

..CARBIN.. 05/15/2010


ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

[djjordan]

Is everyone enjoying the lull and interlude thus far and the quantity of rainfall that southeast Texas has received thus far?

I love it .... weekend or not ... we definitely needed the rain .... my lawn and plants are happy!!!!