March: Comfortable Weekend Weather & Warming Trend

[TexasBreeze]

It's on its way to freezing, BEFORE the rain even starts. Don't have to wait long now.

[Mr. T]

As don noted, already 35 at IAH. 34 here in the Kwoods

Dews in the mid 20s. It won't take much at all to drop us below freezing. Radar returns already noted to the SW

Wouldn't be suprised to see the warning extended into Harris for at least the NW side

[Texaspirate11]

Metro says its closing some HOV's for tomorrow.

[Mr. T]

Just to give you an idea how terrible models are performing temperature wise during this shallow arctic airmass...

We've got the 18z GFS MOS saying it should be 36 degrees at CLL when it's already below freezing there. And we have a 41 at IAH when it is already 35... The 2m forecast from said model is even slightly warmer.

Not a surprising poor performance, considering such a shallow airmass. It's near 50 degrees at 850...

Technically, the GFS has never had IAH below freezing during this cold front event. laugh out loud...

[cristina6871]

I've been keeping up to date all day long but now just had a chance to post. Needless to say, was very surprised at how cold it got last night. Sadly I lost my geranium - as did my sister. I have a feeling this may be THE storm.....all those others were just "warnings" or precursors to what may happen overnight. DP just said Woodlands is 31. I'm updating the parents with the conditions. I'm curious to see if this all comes to fruition.

[Mr. T]

IAH now down to 34 at a special update, dew 24. 33 here in the Kwoods

30 to 35 dbz echoes starting to show up just to our west with precip filling in around San Antonio. Certainly heavier than anything we saw during the last "light freezing rain" events

It's time to rock and roll

[redneckweather]

30.6 out near Lake Conroe and slowly dropping. I guess I'm a sitting duck...didn't need any moisture to drop temps. Looks like it will be 100% ice up this way. Fun.

[Mr. T]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
624 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
.AVIATION...
WHAT WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT ABOUT: TWO UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL
BE MOVING THRU THE AREA IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THE FIRST ONE IS
MOVING OVERHEAD NOW. IT`S GENERATING SOME ISOLATED PRECIP BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT ATTM AS TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 30S WHERE THIS
IS OCCURRING. A SECOND STRONGER ONE WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT ISO COVERAGE TO BEGIN AROUND 4Z WITH THIS ONE AND
GRADUALLY BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM THE SW AFTER 9Z. MVFR CIGS WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO IFR AS THIS OCCURS. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF
TOWARD 18Z AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL
WILL FREEZE UPON CONTACT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING. FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLEET
MIXED IN AS WELL WITH SATURATED PROFILES BETWEEN 0C TO -3OC.
EXPECT CIGS TO TRANSITION BACK UP INTO MVFR TERRITORY DURING THE
AFTN HOURS AS PRECIP MOVES AWAY.

WHAT WE AREN`T SO CONFIDENT ABOUT: SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WARM
LAYER OF AIR ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF INCLUDING METRO AIRPORTS.
THIS`LL MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE WHETHER WE SEE FREEZING RAIN THERE
OR NOT. IT REALLY COULD GO ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WITH A DEGREE OR
THREE MAKING A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE - BUT BE SIGNIFICANT WHERE IT
DOES FREEZE EARLY ENOUGH. FCST MODELS AREN`T REALLY IN THE
BALLPARK W/ THIS AIRMASS REGARDING TEMPS. READINGS ARE RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN THEIR SUGGESTIONS. IT`S ALREADY BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE TX. IT`LL ONLY
TAKE 2-7 MORE DEGREES TO COOL TO FREEZING IN THE METRO AREA WHICH
IT VERY WELL WILL PROBABLY DO. TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE AS WHEN ESP
SINCE CLOUDS ARE THICKENING FROM THE SW. ANOTHER QUESTION: WILL
SFC TEMPS ACTUALLY WARM A TOUCH WITH MODERATE RAINS POSSIBLE
DRAGGING SOME WARMER TEMPS ALOFT TO THE SFC? NOT COMPLETELY SURE
ABOUT THIS BUT GAVE PRECIP TYPE MY BEST SHOT IN THE TAFS. FEEL
MORE CONFIDENT IN THE IAH TAF THAN THOSE FURTHER SOUTH FWIW. 4



So basically, it's colder than forecast, but the extremely warm temps aloft could mess with surface temps a bit. With it already near freezing, this may not matter much....

[ronyan]

Once again it looks likely that we will miss out on the wintry fun here. It's a balmy 42F and may not even hit the freezing mark tonight.

North of I-10 definitely looks primed for some action though.

[srainhoutx]

Hail being reported in San Antonio at KSAT Studio.

[Kingwood31]

Once again it looks likely that we will miss out on the wintry fun here. It's a balmy 42F and may not even hit the freezing mark tonight.

North of I-10 definitely looks primed for some action though.

Main reason why I left clute..well others as well..once u get north of I-10 u have a greater chance then being south of I-10 except dec 04 when we got an awesome snow event n clute

[jasons2k]

32 here now...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

29.7 here

[Paul Robison]

Once again it looks likely that we will miss out on the wintry fun here. It's a balmy 42F and may not even hit the freezing mark tonight.

North of I-10 definitely looks primed for some action though.

Main reason why I left clute..well others as well..once u get north of I-10 u have a greater chance then being south of I-10 except dec 04 when we got an awesome snow event n clute

Dear Kingwood31:

1. Will most of the city end up without electricity after the freezing rain moves through?

2. What's up with ERCOT, anyway?

[Katdaddy]

Holding steady at 38F in League City.

[tireman4]

33 at Bush. Here we go. Hang on folks, this "could" be a bumpy ride. Stay tuned to NWS and all media outlets for all weather concerns.

[Brandy3835]

It's 35 here in Beaumont what do you think we will see here ?

[Mr. T]

32 in the Kwoods.

Just look at any current temperature map and take a look at the cold pocket over SE TX right now... It's still in the 40s off to our west and the upper 30s off to our east. This is the complete opposite of last time when the coldest air split SE TX

I don't know for sure, obviously, but it seems like areas off to our west and east saw a much better clear out of clouds, thus higher temps. But now those skies are a thick overcast, so not much opportunity to cool with weaker CAA than yesterday.

Here over SE TX, we did see some breaks, but not much. So highs only warmed into the 30s low 40s. We are still seeing some breaks in the clouds, and this may be helping to push temps to near freezing across Houston.

And maybe the coldest of air across areas hit by the winter storm is being funneled straight into SE TX. But, really, I don't know.

[don]

I was wondering the same thing, if were colder than surrounding areas due to deeper cold air funneling from areas to our northeast due to the recent winter storm. You can sort of see the funnel of cold air on this temperature map.

[Portastorm]

This deal is ramping up quickly. Saw several cloud-to-ground lightning strikes here in SW Austin in last 15 minutes.