February: Clear Skies & Moderating Temps To End The Month

[Kludge]

Will Pax be a Catastrophe?

What's a "Pax"?

And while we're at it, what's "The Weather Channel"?

Yeah their sticking to their guns on this, but I don't see it catching on. Especially since they seem to be the only one dumb enough to use it. I don't remember the last time I watched it. They are never right.

Apologies for continuing this off-topic topic, but with the current event waning...

It's been sad to see GE/Comcast/NBC buying TWC, and then watching them become the McWeather Show. They now push their political agendas, and then show more 'reality' shows than weather news. So I was delighted when Directv dropped them. Now DTV has this "Weather Nation" channel, and while unexciting, it is wall-to-wall weather news, and brings back memories of why I loved TWC in their early days.

The same is true for the new Weather Bell versus the robotic Accuweather. I saw a Weather Bell banner on Weather Nation today, so I hope that bodes for a partnership.

Ok... back on topic: precip has ended, with 0.15 in the last 3 hours while the temp remained at 32/32. No visible ice, and hopefully the roads have remained above freezing.

[Texaspirate11]

Friday its suppose to reach 70- best valentine gift so far.

[unome]

this morning's discussion:

"YESTERDAY`S NEAR 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DISTANT MEMORY BY THIS
WEEKEND WHEN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACHIEVE THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!"

and my forecast graph high temps of 57, 52 & 61 for Fri-Sun are a world apart ???

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 9%2C%20USA

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

edit: went to look at NWS' national graphical forecast page & there is obviously an error somewhere, cus starting Fr there's an area around Houston & surrounding counties that is fully 1 color colder than surrounding area

http://preview.weather.gov/graphical/?z ... s=nautical

please... I need the 70s back :(

[wxman57]

With coastal water temperatures presently around 45F, any return flow off the Gulf is going to result in widespread fog, low clouds and drizzle. The models may be over-forecasting high temperatures this weekend and next week given the low amount of sunshine. I'm thinking maybe mid 60s is more likely than low 70s this weekend.

[srainhoutx]

Some very interesting facts from HGX when we have cold winters and the correlation to the sensible weather we can get in the Summer.

[redneckweather]

Good info srain. So it looks like a split with Texas land falling tropical systems, above average summer rainfall, and a cooler than average temp wise.

[redneckweather]

Ok, the forecast says mostly sunny today. It's going on lunchtime and nada!

[srainhoutx]

The sun is shining here in NW Harris County through partly cloudy skies but sure isn't all that warm.

[redneckweather]

It's trying to poke through now. Looks like an hour or two and the clouds will be gone! Bring it! Sick of these dreary skies. I have had my little heater going underneath my desk for 2 months straight now! Looks like that will be coming to an end.

[Andrew]

As Srain posted before, while spring like temps look to hang around for now, another pattern change COULD soon be on the horizon. Towards the end of February the Euro is picking up on some serious ridging building north into the Pacific towards the Aleutian Islands. Now the GFS is now suggesting a similar synoptic pattern. This type of pattern would support amplification of troughs in the Western part of American and a nice dip in the jet. Meanwhile in the short term, fog looks like an issue for later this week as surface winds out of the south help to advect colder shelf waters over the area. I expect some dense fog warnings if winds can subside enough at night. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on how you look at it) this could be a problem for severe weather during spring down here as capping inversions could be strong and numerous.

[Texaspirate11]

I can't upload the image from the HGX NWS today but it was an interesting chart.
They compared our coldest winters to Hurricane season.
Should be a fun summer

[wxman57]

I can't upload the image from the HGX NWS today but it was an interesting chart.
They compared our coldest winters to Hurricane season.
Should be a fun summer

Srain posted that image on the previous page of this thread. Hard to imagine that the 2014 hurricane season can be less active than 2013 was in terms of Gulf impacts. I'm not expecting a summer anything like 2011. Probably more normal temps with precip normal to above-normal.

[cristina6871]

As Srain posted before, while spring like temps look to hang around for now, another pattern change COULD soon be on the horizon. Towards the end of February the Euro is picking up on some serious ridging building north into the Pacific towards the Aleutian Islands. Now the GFS is now suggesting a similar synoptic pattern. This type of pattern would support amplification of troughs in the Western part of American and a nice dip in the jet. Meanwhile in the short term, fog looks like an issue for later this week as surface winds out of the south help to advect colder shelf waters over the area. I expect some dense fog warnings if winds can subside enough at night. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on how you look at it) this could be a problem for severe weather during spring down here as capping inversions could be strong and numerous.

What kind of storm would that be? Are you saying winter is trying to hang on?

[Texaspirate11]

I can't upload the image from the HGX NWS today but it was an interesting chart.
They compared our coldest winters to Hurricane season.
Should be a fun summer

Srain posted that image on the previous page of this thread. Hard to imagine that the 2014 hurricane season can be less active than 2013 was in terms of Gulf impacts. I'm not expecting a summer anything like 2011. Probably more normal temps with precip normal to above-normal.

I've always believed that a "snowy" winter brings about a cane summer.
We shall see....but I'll tell you this - I can WAIT for the first 100 degree day.
I haven't ridden my bike in weeks, it seems.

[Andrew]

As Srain posted before, while spring like temps look to hang around for now, another pattern change COULD soon be on the horizon. Towards the end of February the Euro is picking up on some serious ridging building north into the Pacific towards the Aleutian Islands. Now the GFS is now suggesting a similar synoptic pattern. This type of pattern would support amplification of troughs in the Western part of American and a nice dip in the jet. Meanwhile in the short term, fog looks like an issue for later this week as surface winds out of the south help to advect colder shelf waters over the area. I expect some dense fog warnings if winds can subside enough at night. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on how you look at it) this could be a problem for severe weather during spring down here as capping inversions could be strong and numerous.

What kind of storm would that be? Are you saying winter is trying to hang on?

Way to early to really say anything for sure but it does look like the front would originate from the pacific region. Looks like we would get some good advection from western Canada if it happened. Time will tell though.

[srainhoutx]

Absolutely the heaviest frost of the Winter Season this morning. Grass was covered and it took scraping the windshields to get moving in the vehicles this morning. The roofs looked like it had snowed overnight.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Another freezing morning across much of the area…but much warmer temperatures are on the way!

Amplified upper air pattern of late which has allowed frequent arctic intrusions into the state will break down into a more zonal flow (west to east) across the US. This will lead to a gradual warming trend over the next several days as cold air is bottled well north of the area. Lows this morning near 30 will warm into the 40’s on Friday and the 50’s over the weekend as southerly wind flow increases moisture off the Gulf of Mexico. Afternoon highs today in the low 60’s warm into the low 70’s Friday and the mid 70’s over the weekend…however dense sea fog could temper the highs over the weekend into early next week.

Only concern for the next 2-4 days is dense sea fog. Nearshore water temperatures are pretty cold after all the cold air outbreaks this winter with temperatures running in the 40’s in the bays and 50’s over the NW Gulf. Long fetch ESE flow developing this weekend will begin to bring 50 and 60 degree dewpoints over this cold water. As this happens the warm moist air will chill to saturation resulting in dense sea fog formation. ESE to SE winds are more favorable than south and southwest winds as it gives the moist air more time over a larger area of cold water. Expect dewpoints to creep above the waters temperatures on Saturday and fog to begin to form and thicken into Sunday. Looks like the fog bank will be around for a couple of days at least as there appears to be no incoming fronts until maybe Tuesday of next week. Think once the coastal locations are fogged in they will stay that way for a prolonged period. Not sure how far the sea fog will advance each evening…but think at least to US 59 is a good possibility. How long it takes inland fog to lift each day early next week will have some impact on the afternoon temperatures. Expect coastal locations will struggle to get out of the 50’s with fog and the surrounding cold water.

Climate:
From Nov 1 to Feb 11: The City of Houston has experienced its 7th coldest winter on record, College Station its 5th coldest, and Galveston its 8th coldest. 1977 is the coldest winter on record at all 3 of these climate sites and on average this winter has been 2-3 degrees warmer than 1977. Interestingly enough of the top 10 coldest winters for Houston only two have been post 1985 and they are this year and 2001. Also of interest is that some of the most brutal arctic outbreak years do not make the top 10 list given that while they were extreme on lows and established many of our cold temperature records they were short in duration. Reaching into the top 10 coldest winters indicates prolonged cold which this winter has been.

[wxman57]

I think there's a very good chance that Houston has seen its last freeze of the winter. With the developing pattern it will be quite difficult to drive any significant cold air southward out of Canada. Next weekend's (Sunday) cold front may drop temps into the upper 30s at Bush, but there just isn't predicted to be any really cold air in western Canada beyond then.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance continues to advertise a rather deep Western Trough transitioning E into the Plains in the mid to late next week timeframe. While it is too soon to know the 'finer details', there are indications that rather potent Winter Storm will move inland along the Pacific Coast and a robust 5H cold core low will trek E across the Great Basin and leeside cyclogensis may develop across the Southern and Central Plains as the storm system heads NE toward the Mid West/Great Lakes Region.

[wxman57]

Plotted a couple of Houston meteograms off the 12Z GFS. First time the GFS is predicting 80F in the 2-meter raw temps (not MOS guidance):